Read my full write-up on Sportsline.com
2 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1) - When looking at his last three Darlington finishes, you might think he doesn’t like the new car very much. He was 24th last spring, 31st in the fall, and 31st in the spring race this season. But he led 221 laps between the three races. He was in an accident in two of them and had a water pump failure in the other. He’s led laps in his last seven starts there and he has two wins overall and leads active drivers with 914 laps led over 22 starts. He’ll lead laps again on Sunday and fight for the win.
3 #11 Denny Hamlin (15/2) - This is the Lady in Black’s chosen one as he has a best average finish of 7.7 in 22 Cup starts. His four wins are the most among active drivers. He has 12 top-fives, 20 Top-10s, and led 801 laps. He’s pulled all the right moves to win the Lady over and he knows how to build a relationship with her. His race management of tires is the key to all his success. His tires never seem to wear because he’s not all over the place. He keeps his car steady early in runs and by the time all others are slowing down with tire wear his tires are preserved and it’s an edge he’s been successful with at Darlington forever. Too Tough to Tame? He laughs at the notion with a 7.7 average finish.
4 #2 Brad Keselowski (16/1) - It’s got to be tough being part-owner of RFK Racing with no wins the last two seasons watching his teammate Buescher win three of the last five races using a car similar and equal to Keselowski’s own. This sounds like the spot where he could win his first for RFK. He’s third among active drivers with an 11.7 average finish with a 2018 win and he was seventh last fall and fourth in the spring.
5 #22 Joey Logano (18/1) - He’s been good at Darlington at all stages of his Cup career but finally got his first win there last spring. He sat on the pole in both races last season and led 171 laps between the two races. This season in May, he finished 18th. He has a 13.3 average finish between 19 starts.
6 #20 Christopher Bell (12/1) - His only win this season came in the Bristol Dirt Race and he closed out the regular season with no umph or pizazz. No one is talking about him. But he can prove himself to everyone this week when the playoffs begin. And the good news about him is that he’s been very good in his last three races at Darlington with a sixth, fifth, and 14th in May. All three of those were using the NextGen car.
7 #24 William Byron (15/2) - He’s led laps in his last three Darlington starts – all in the new car – and his least amount led happened in his first win there in May. He led just seven laps but was second in Stage 1 and fourth in Stage 2. It’s a good track for him and he’s in the good graces of the Lady.
8 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - His only Cup win at Darlington came in his fourth start there in 2008, but he’s led a bunch of laps over the years – 899 laps led. The reason you might play him this week is because he finished seventh in the spring race and his car finished second and third last season with Reddick driving it.
9 #5 Kyle Larson (6/1) - In the old car, he was always on the brink of winning at Darlington with five top-fives in eight starts. He was runner-up three races in a row, but the new car changed his groove. He was no longer able to tempt the Lady with charm and skills. His edge was gone. His best in his last three with the NextGen car was 12th sandwiched by a 20th in May and 36th in May of 2022, his only DNF there. He's led 715 laps with no wins. But he did win an Xfinity Series race there in the spring.
10 #17 Chris Buescher (18/1) - He’s had three top-10s in his last five starts at Darlington, including 10th in the May race. He’s had three Cup wins in the last five races and the two he didn’t win were on road courses which used to be his specialty. RFK Racing is bringing the speed weekly and found something recently to make them super-fast. He’s a good driver to drop $10 on just because he’s winning everything lately.
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