Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 YellaWood 500 at Talladega

Read my full article on Sportsline.com

1 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - In 71 Cup starts at superspeedways he has five wins, 21 top-fives, and led 1,097 laps. His 21 top-fives is the most in the series among active drivers. Is this his year? Is this about to be his first NASCAR Cup Championship? I’m thinking it is and the storybook ending to the season has me wishing and hoping he’s finally crowned the champ. He’s grown into one of the best superspeedway drivers because he understands how the draft works better than anyone. He is able to manipulate the air in the draft to propel himself to speeds that others don’t understand yet. This man is driving for his legacy in the sport. Joey Logano has two titles and Hamlin none. That’s not cool. I’m here for it, I’m waiting for it. Starts at Talladega.

2 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - This guy has only four top-fives this season. He did manage to find his way to a win. In 18 Talladega starts he has two wins, five top-fives, and 275 laps led. I put him in this position because he’s been runner-up in his last two Talladega starts. It’s a very good track for him.

3 #23 Bubba Wallace (14/1) - In 11 Talladega Cup starts, he has one 2021 win and that remains his only top-five and top-10. He’s led laps in seven of his last eight races. He led the most laps (111) last week at Texas and finished third and I was sick. But I can’t let my losses last week alter my thoughts on him this week, plus I won two driver matchups with him. But man, I wanted that win badly.

4 #24 William Byron (16/1) - In 21 Cup starts on superspeedways he has one 2020 Daytona win, four top-fives, and 191 laps led. His best at Talladega was runner-up in 2021 and his best this season was seventh in April. The treason you bet him is because he has six wins on the season and he’ll likely win once or twice more before the season is over,

5 #6 Brad Keselowski (10/1) - He has a series-leading seven wins on superspeedways, including six of them at Talladega. His last win was in 2021 at Talladega. His last two superspeedway starts have been impressive with fifth at Talladega in April and runner-up at Daytona last month. If he’s going to win again, this is the place.

6 #10 Aric Almirola (20/1) - Two of his career Cup wins have come on superspeedways with the last coming in 2018 at Talladega. It’s been a long season for him but I bet him this week because of his third place at Daytona last month. He’s led laps in his last four superspeedway starts.

7 #1 Ross Chastain (20/1) - In 20 superspeedway races he won once at Talladega last spring and finished fourth last fall. His best of the three races run this season was ninth in the Daytona 500. He’s included in my betting portfolio this week.

8 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr (22/1) - All three of his Cup wins have come in superspeedway race tracks, two in 2017 and one this year in the Daytona 500. He has nine top-fives in 43 superspeedway starts and led 252 laps. He knows how to make the winning moves but it’s also part of his risk-taking that gets him into trouble.

9 #54 Ty Gibbs (30/1) - This track has proven too big and bad for the young Gibbs, but I like him to manage his fears here and run well. He’s grown in confidence and while he may not have the chops to manage the draft, I advise him to stay back and run the race from the back and let the wrecks happen in front of him and out of harm's way. With 15 laps to go, make your move and race against 20 drivers rather than 38.

10 #2 Austin Cindric (30/1) - In eight Cup starts between Daytona and Talladega he has a win in the 2022 Daytona 500 and a third last summer at Daytona. His best is ninth at Talladega in this race last season.

Kevin Harvick is 20/1 to win 2023 YellaWood 500

 

KEVIN HARVICK Talladega Advance No. 4 Busch Light Camo Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

Event Overview

●  Event:  YellaWood 500 (Round 31 of 36) ●  Time/Date:  2 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Oct. 1 ●  Location:  Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway ●  Layout:  2.66-mile oval ●  Laps/Miles:  188 laps/500 miles ●  Stage Lengths:  Stage 1: 60 laps / Stage 2: 60 laps / Final Stage: 68 laps ●  TV/Radio:  NBC / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

●  Kevin Harvick has made 45 NASCAR Cup Series starts at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway, collecting eight top-fives and a series-best 19 top-10s among active drivers. Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski lead the series with 10 top-fives apiece at Talladega while Joey Logano has the second-most top-fives with nine. The all-time leader at Talladega in every statistical category is Dale Earnhardt. The Intimidator won 10 races in 44 career starts and tallied 23 top-fives and 27 top-10s with 1,377 laps led.   ●  Atop Harvick’s NASCAR Cup Series stat box at Talladega is a win. Harvick came out the victor in a dogfight of a race at Talladega on April 25, 2010. There were an incredible 88 lead changes and three massive accidents that collected a total of 24 cars. Harvick kept his car intact throughout each bout of calamity and despite leading only two laps, the second lap led was the one that mattered most. Harvick got underneath race leader Jamie McMurray in the track’s tri-oval to sweep past him and take the win by just .011 of a second. It was the 12th of Harvick’s 60 career Cup Series wins.   ●  Harvick is on the hunt for career win No. 61 and he’s got the car to do it Sunday at Talladega. Busch Light camo cans are back and Harvick’s No. 4 Busch Light Ford Mustang emulates the design of this year’s camo cans, which are available nationwide.   ●  In addition to his 45 NASCAR Cup Series starts at Talladega, Harvick has eight NASCAR Xfinity Series starts at the 2.66-mile oval, with a best result of second in April 2006.   ●  At Talladega on Oct. 14, 2018, Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) enjoyed one of its most dominant days ever. The team qualified 1-2-3-4 for the first time in its history. SHR drivers then led 155 of the race’s 193 laps (80.3 percent), including the last lap by Aric Almirola, who delivered SHR’s milestone 50th points-paying NASCAR Cup Series victory and the organization’s 11th win of the season.

Kevin Harvick, Driver of the No. 4 Busch Light Camo Ford Mustang

Do you need to be lucky to be good at Talladega? “With the way that superspeedway racing has evolved, especially with this particular car, you have to be aggressive because track position is so important. If you’re going to win the race, you need to maintain your track position all day. You can make up ground, but it’s definitely more difficult than it has been. All those pieces you can probably control, but the luck part is definitely a part of the equation. You have to be able to get lucky, miss some of the wrecks, and be in the right place at the right time to not get gathered up in the mess, because there are going to be some wrecks, there are going to be some situations, you’re going to have to be aggressive, you’re going to have to push, you’re going to have to shove, you’re going to have to do all of those things. You’re going to have to block in order to have a chance to keep yourself up front. But in the end, you’re going to have to have some luck.”   What’s a playoff race like at Talladega? “It’s a lot like the regular-season finale at Daytona. You have a lot of different agendas. You have guys who really know that it’s their only opportunity to win. You have guys who know there’s going to be carnage and run at the back. There are guys who need stage points and try to run at the front. It’s a race of agendas and, as you look at that, it creates a lot of different aggression levels. But usually at that part of the season, there are people who just want to win and know that it’s one of those opportunities, and there’s a lot of pushing and shoving and wrecks. It’s usually how that works out, so survival is obviously the key, but you have to balance that with trying to score some sort of stage points and putting yourself toward the front for the first two stages.”   What are your expectations when it comes to racing Talladega? “It’s one of those places where you want to race up front and race hard all day because you have to try to win stages. I believe you have better odds at the front of the pack when it comes to staying out of a wreck if you can keep that track position all day. You’re going to race in a pack – three-wide at times – and you’re going to get pushed and have to push at times. You just never know what’s going to happen because Talladega is its own animal. It’s hard to finish a race there. As we’ve seen over the past however many years, you try to put yourself in the right position and hope you have a little bit of luck on your side that particular day. I know our Busch Light Ford Mustang will be fast enough to contend for the win, but you just have to get to the finish.”   There are some physically demanding races on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Is Talladega mentally demanding? “Superspeedway racing, in general, is just a mentally demanding situation because of the constant looking in the mirror and looking around and trying to keep the car going as fast as it can go and being aggressive and pushing and shoving and doing all the things it takes. There’s just a lot that you have to process from a mental standpoint.”   Describe the intensity of racing at Talladega. “You have to be aggressive just for the fact that if you’re not aggressive, it always seems like you’re not going to be where you need to be. Nine times out of 10, the aggressor is going to be the guy who comes out on the good side of things just for the fact that you’re making things happen and you’re not waiting for something else to happen. When you wait for something else to happen, that’s usually when you get in trouble because it’s usually someone else’s mess. You can still get in trouble if you’re aggressive, but with the way things are, it’s best to stay aggressive and try to stay up front.”

Playoffs heat up at Talladega Superspeedway

Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron grabbed the win at Texas Motor Speedway last weekend securing his spot in the next round of the postseason, leaving the remaining 11 contenders still vying for one of the spots in the Round of 8 with two races left in the Round of 12 – Talladega Superspeedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL. This weekend the competitors will have to face one of the biggest hurdles in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, as Talladega Superspeedway opens the gates and unleashes its 2.66-miles of asphalt with 33 degrees of banking in the turns for Sunday’s YellaWood 500 at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Channel 90).

The 2023 season marks the seventh consecutive year Talladega Superspeedway will host the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (2017-2023) – Race No. 31 of the season. Talladega is the third different track to host the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs; joining Charlotte Motor Speedway (2004 – 2014) and Kansas Speedway (2015 - 2016). The 2.66-mile track is the largest paved oval the series competes on with 33 degrees of banking in the turns.

Talladega Superspeedway has participated in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs since its inception into the series in 2004 and has occupied five different spots on the postseason schedule. Talladega has hosted the third race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (2004 – 2005); the fourth race (2006 – 2008 and 2012); the fifth race (2017-2023); the sixth race (2011, 2013 – 2016); and the seventh race (2009 – 2010).

A total of 15 different drivers have won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff races at Talladega Superspeedway. Brad Keselowski (2017, 2014), Clint Bowyer (2010-2011), Jamie McMurray (2009, 2013) and Joey Logano (2015-2016) lead the NASCAR Cup Series in Playoff wins at Talladega Superspeedway with two victories each. Seven of the 15 Talladega Playoff race winners are active this weekend and four of the seven are Playoff contenders this year – Bubba Wallace (2021), Denny Hamlin (2020), Ryan Blaney (2019), Brad Keselowski (2014, 2017).

 

Talladega Superspeedway Playoff Race Winners
Track	Race Winner	Date
Talladega	Chase Elliott	Sunday, October 2, 2022
Talladega	Bubba Wallace	Monday, October 4, 2021
Talladega	Denny Hamlin	Sunday, October 4, 2020
Talladega	Ryan Blaney	Sunday, October 13, 2019
Talladega	Aric Almirola	Sunday, October 14, 2018
Talladega	Brad Keselowski	Sunday, October 15, 2017
Talladega	Joey Logano	Sunday, October 23, 2016
Talladega	Joey Logano	Sunday, October 25, 2015
Talladega	Brad Keselowski	Sunday, October 19, 2014
Talladega	Jamie McMurray	Sunday, October 20, 2013
Talladega	Matt Kenseth	Sunday, October 7, 2012
Talladega	Clint Bowyer	Sunday, October 23, 2011
Talladega	Clint Bowyer	Sunday, October 31, 2010
Talladega	Jamie McMurray	Sunday, November 1, 2009
Talladega	Tony Stewart	Sunday, October 5, 2008
Talladega	Jeff Gordon	Sunday, October 7, 2007
Talladega	Brian Vickers	Sunday, October 8, 2006
Talladega	Dale Jarrett	Sunday, October 2, 2005
Talladega	Dale Earnhardt Jr	Sunday, October 3, 2004

 

During the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Era (2004-Present), the winner of the Talladega Superspeedway Playoff race has never gone on to win the title in the same season. But twice the Talladega Playoff race winner has finished runner-up in the championship standings at the end of the season: Jeff Gordon (2007) and Joey Logano (2016).

The worst finish in a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway by a driver that went on to win the title that same season was 37th by Kyle Larson in 2021.

A total of 15 different drivers have won the NASCAR Cup Series fifth race in the Playoffs; nine of the 15 are active this weekend and four are currently in the Playoffs – Bubba Wallace (2022 Talladega), Denny Hamlin (2021 Talladega), Ryan Blaney (2019 Talladega) and Brad Keselowski (2017 Talladega and 2013 Charlotte).

Jimmie Johnson leads the NASCAR Cup Series in wins in the fifth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with three victories (2004, 2005, 2009 – all at Charlotte Motor Speedway). Brad Keselowski (2013 Charlotte and 2017 Talladega) and Kevin Harvick (2014 Charlotte and 2016 Kansas) lead all active drivers in wins in the fifth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with two each.

Martin Truex Jr is 30/1 to win 1st Cup race at Talladega

Martin Truex Jr. Talladega Advance No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD for Joe Gibbs Racing

Event Overview

● Event: YellaWood 500 (Round 31 of 36) ● Time/Date: 2 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Oct. 1 ● Location: Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway ● Layout: 2.66-mile oval ● Laps/Miles: 188 laps/ 500.08 miles ● Stage Lengths: Stage 1: 60 laps / Stage 2: 60 laps / Final Stage: 68 laps ● TV/Radio: NBC / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

● Martin Truex Jr., and the No. 19 team for Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) set the tone for the season right out of the gate by winning the 150-lap feature in the non-points Clash at the Coliseum on Feb. 5 in Los Angeles. Truex won his heat race, then went on to lead the final 25 laps of the feature en route to a victory that gave him and the team much-needed momentum heading into the 2023 season. While the team was knocking on the door over the first 10 points-paying races, the breakthrough win finally came at Dover (Del.) Motor Speedway on May 1, and Truex has added two more points-paying victories and four overall this season – June 11 at Sonoma (Calif.) Raceway and July 17 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon.   ● Playoff Time: Truex started the playoffs’ Round of 12 last weekend at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth with a 17th-place finish. He heads into the second race of the round at Talladega sitting fifth in the standings, 19 points above the top-12 cutline with two races remaining in the round.   ● 34 and Counting: Truex’s win at New Hampshire was the 34th of his Cup Series career, putting him in a tie with 2004 Cup Series champion Kurt Busch for 25th on the all-time win list in NASCAR’s top series.   ● Truex has three top-five finishes, nine top-10s and has led a total of 95 laps in 37 career NASCAR Cup Series starts at Talladega. Truex’s average Talladega finish is 21.4.   ● So far this season, Truex has scored three points-paying wins, nine top-five finishes, 15 top-10s and has led an impressive 832 laps through 30 races. To put the laps-led number in perspective, Truex led just 572 during the entire 36-race season in 2022.

Martin Truex Jr., Driver of the No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD

You are aiming to get your first Talladega win. What do you work on leading into Talladega that you might not do other weeks?   “Talladega is a lot different than normal weeks. It’s a lot of strategy and a lot of talk with my teammates and trying to plan to work together to get to the end of that thing. It seems like every time we go back there it’s a little bit different. It’s changed a lot over the years and a lot in the past few years. Starting last year with this new NextGen car, it was quite a bit different racing there. Still trying to figure out how to get that first win at Talladega. We’ve been close there before and ran really strong there last year with our Bass Pro Shops Camry, so just looking to build on that and focus on what it’s going to take to try and get our first win there.”   A Talladega win would be your first on a superspeedway-style track – Daytona and Atlanta being the others on the current schedule. Is a superspeedway win something you would really like to have on your resume?   “I would like to, it’s something we put a lot of work and effort into. I would say it’s probably not my best style of racing. For us, I think that we are always damaged, so if we can ever get to the end of one of those races and are at the front, we would have a chance. If we get that chance again, we need to be able to figure out how to make the right moves. Would love to be there at the end at Talladega this weekend and have a shot to win with our Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD.”   After running four races so far this season with the speedway package, what are your expectations for Talladega this weekend?   “I think it will be similar to Daytona. This car, for whatever reason, just likes to be two-wide, there never seems to be a third lane. There’s a lot of two-wide and a lot of track position – hard to make your way up through the field. You never know, though, it all depends on what everyone is wanting to do. How aggressive does everyone want to be, and will we have a chance at a third lane forming? I don’t know.”   Talladega has made some renovations in recent years to its fan amenities. How have you seen the track change in recent years?   “It’s cool because it’s a good fan experience at Talladega and that’s what it’s really all about, giving the fans something to do throughout the weekend when we are not racing. It’s a really cool setup for the fans. It’s cool that the fans can get up close to the cars now more than ever and they can check out what is going on. Always have a lot of great fan energy when we go to Talladega, for sure.”

Chase Briscoe is 30/1 to win at Talladega

 

CHASE BRISCOE Talladega Advance No. 14 Old Spice Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

Event Overview

● Event:  YellaWood 500 (Round 31 of 36) ● Time/Date:  2 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Oct. 1 ● Location:  Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway ● Layout:  2.66-mile oval ● Laps/Miles:  188 laps/500 miles ● Stage Lengths:  Stage 1: 60 laps / Stage 2: 60 laps / Final Stage: 68 laps ● TV/Radio:  NBC / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

● Preece & Chase: Life will imitate art at the 2.66-mile Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway oval where Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) will field two Ford Mustangs in Wonder Bread and Old Spice liveries. The championship-winning NASCAR team co-owned by NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart and Haas Automation founder Gene Haas will have Ryan Preece behind the wheel of the No. 41 Wonder Bread Ford Mustang while Chase Briscoe drives the No. 14 Old Spice Ford Mustang.    ● The Return of Old Spice: Old Spice’s presence on the No. 14 at Talladega will be a welcome sight for diehard Stewart fans, like Briscoe. Though the paint scheme is not the same one Stewart piloted in 2009 and 2010, in the early years of SHR, the sponsor reappearing on the car previously driven by “Smoke” is a fitting nod to the three-time Cup Series champion.   ● Briscoe at Talladega: In five Cup Series starts at Talladega, Briscoe owns one top-five and two top-10 starts with a best finish of fourth earned in April. He finished inside the top-five once in four Xfinity Series starts and recorded a third-place finish in the April 2016 ARCA Menards Series race there.    ● Showing Speed: Four weeks ago at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway, Briscoe earned his second career Cup Series pole and first on a superspeedway. He started on the front row alongside SHR teammate Aric Almirola, marking the third front-row sweep for SHR.  In 2018, SHR drivers qualified on the front row for both races at Talladega. Kevin Harvick started from the pole in April alongside Kurt Busch and in the October race with Busch on the pole and Clint Bowyer second.   ● One Week Ago at Texas: Briscoe and the No. 14 team were six laps away from a win last Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth. Briscoe started 31st and the team utilized an off-sequence pit strategy to place the 28-year-old driver inside the top-10 late in the final stage. Briscoe worked his way into the top-five and restarted on the front row after a caution with six laps remaining. Briscoe got by Bubba Wallace as the race returned to green but damage to the nose of the No. 14 Ford from a previous restart affected its handling and left Briscoe with a 10th-place finish.   ● About Old Spice: Procter & Gamble’s Old Spice is the quintessential grooming brand. With more than 80 years as an American icon, Old Spice is the authority on grooming experience and has leveraged this heritage to become the No.1-selling anti-perspirant and deodorant brand for guys in the United States. Old Spice offers a complete product portfolio for today’s evolving needs, including anti-perspirants, deodorants, body washes, body sprays, shampoos and hair stylers. Visit Old Spice online at www.OldSpice.com and its social media channels on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, X and Facebook.

Chase Briscoe, Driver of the No. 14 Old Spice Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing:

This is a really special moment for fans of Talladega Nights and NASCAR. How does it feel to be involved in bringing such iconic movie schemes to life? “Talladega Nights is one of my all-time favorite movies. If you’re a NASCAR driver or fan and you can’t watch it and appreciate the how funny it is, then you’re missing out. I think the movie has really been embraced by fans and it probably brought some news eyes to our sport. I’m excited to be able to embrace the story and have some fun living out my Talladega Nights moment with Ryan.”   Speaking of Talladega Nights moments … being so close to Ryan during his Daytona incident was probably as close as you’ve come to living out one of those movie moments. “Yeah, it definitely was. You don’t realize it until after, it all happens so quickly. I was just worried about Ryan and making sure he was OK. Then it was about whether we could keep going, or if the damage we had on the No. 14 was too much. We were out and I got the chance to talk with him at the care center. It was definitely a few days later after seeing the videos and everything else, knowing he was good and we could move on to the next thing, that it all really sunk in. You don’t think that’s something you’re going to witness and I’m sure it’s not something he ever thought he would be involved in. It’s a risk we know we are taking, but you hope that you are never in that situation. It’s definitely one of the most realistic moments, even if it’s exaggerated for entertainment.”   How cool is it to see Old Spice back on the No. 14? “I’m really glad that Old Spice was on board to come back to Stewart-Haas Racing. Obviously, we wouldn’t be able to do the Talladega Nights deal without them, and as a Tony Stewart fan who has gone on to drive his car, it’s really special to be able to bring that back for all the fans.”   Other than the huge, multicar accidents that we sometimes see at Talladega, is there anything else that is portrayed in the movie that could imitate real life as a racecar driver? “We all laugh at the ridiculous things that happen in the movie, but it’s really all about teamwork and I think that’s one of the most important pieces of superspeedway racing. It doesn’t necessarily mean you have to be working with your teammate, but you need someone that’s giving you that push or working with you if you want to stay up front. Maybe this is the weekend we engage the slingshot and see what it can do for us.”