2 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He’s so good at Dover that he’s almost averaging a top-five finish in his 14 Cup starts. He’s so good at Dover that his 6.9 average finish is better than 11-time Dover winner Jimmie Johnson’s (9.7). He’s the deserved favorite this week, but he comes with more risk than usual because it’s been hit or miss with him this season. He’s been 14th or better in six of his 10 starts this season with wins in two of his last four races. He won a 2017 Xfinity Series race at Dover and won in Cup in 2019.
3 #1 Ross Chastain (12/1) - He hasn’t won this season yet after getting his first two wins last season but there’s something fun about him. He’s earned his stripes and he’s good on all types of tracks. But his uprising happened with Trackhouse Racing and the NextGen car. He had his best car at Dover in eight starts last year there with a third-place finish after finishing fourth in the first stage and sixth in the second stage and led 86 laps. This is a good track for him.
4 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - He grabbed his only Dover win in 32 Cup starts in 2020, the first of two-weekend races at Dover. It was back-to-back Saturday and Sunday due to COVID and it was fabulous. NASCAR was the highlight of that COVID disaster. They came back first to action, they were on national TV, and it kept me busy writing about something when nothing else was going on. Anyway, Hamlin had some issues last season – his first with the NextGen car – but he was better than his 21st-place finish after winning the first stage and leading 67 laps.
5 #9 Chase Elliott (13/2) - Hendrick Motorsports has more wins at Dover than any other organization and Elliott is already chasing his own records. Elliott has nine top-fives in 12 starts while Johnson had 17 top-fives in 38 starts. Elliott has two wins, including last season which was the first driving the NextGen car.
6 #19 Martin Truex Jr (10/1) - He’s a three-time winner at Dover and a three-time runner-up and while he’s looked competitive this season, the fact remains that he still hasn’t won with the NextGen car. No wins last season, no wins this season yet he’s still 10-to-1 as if he’s been winning regularly like Larson. The sportsbooks are sure he’s going to win soon and they don’t want to be exposed to a loss, or I guess that’s the reason for the short prices on Truex weekly. But I won’t be betting against him this week if that tells you anything.
7 #17 Chris Buecher (30/1) - First off, let me state that Buescher won a 2015 Xfinity Series race at Dover. The best Cup finish in his first 11 Cup starts was 14th in 2020. But the new car changed his luck last season when he started from the pole, led 18 laps, and had a career-best eighth-place finish. Then in September, he went to Bristol – a shorter version of Dover – and dominated everyone. He led a race-high 160 laps and won his second Cup race, but it wasn’t a gimmick as his first win at Pocono because he stayed out while everyone pitted and then the rain never stopped. That Bristol win has me thinking this week. Search for the best price.
8 #4 Kevin Harvick (11/1) - He’s a three-time winner at Dover, two of them coming in his last eight starts. His last eight starts have seen him finish ninth or better. He’s always good – 10 top-fives and 1,631 laps led. He’ll be a player on Sunday.
9 #6 Brad Keselowski (35/1) - He got his only Cup win at Dover in 2012, but he’s part of RFK Racing and his teammate is good at Dover and Bristol so he gets lumped in with the NextGen car success as Buescher.
10 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (55/1) - He had his best Cup finish at Dover last season with runner-up. It was his only top-five in 19 starts and his fourth top-10 and it came with the first season of the NextGen car. Dover is shaped like a mini-Bristol and Stenhouse has been great at Bristol at all stages of his career. Also, last thing, he has a win this season so he can go all out for the win without fear of losing points on wreck.
Read my full Top-20 Finish Prediction on Sportsline.com
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