NASCAR South Point 400 Picks, Preview
It’s time for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway’s 1.5-mile layout which starts the Round of 8 in the playoffs. Eight playoff drivers have been chopped after six races in the first two rounds and eight drivers remain with several new faces looking for their first NASCAR Cup Championship.
The NextGen car has been bonkers trying to keep up with data and info after 19 different drivers have won in the first 32 races. Six races remain in the Round of 8 with the top scoring drivers from this round getting an invite to Phoenix on November 6 for the Championship 4. Everyone else is racing along the way, but the tension is building weight on all eight eligible drivers.
But I’ve made an impromptu chart for Las Vegas that involves races on recent tracks like Michigan, Darlington, Kansas, and Texas with those four tracks holding more relevance to my liking than the first Las Vegas race in March. Lots of new information for crew chiefs along the way have come about. The more recent success the better.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking using odds in order of the favorite on down from BetMGM:
SOUTH POINT 400 PICKS & PREDICTIONS
Denny Hamlin (11/2) has dominated the last two fall races at Las Vegas leading the most laps in both, finishing third in 2020 and winning his first Vegas race last season. He was running great in the March race leading 31 laps until a drivetrain issue relegated him to 32nd. The reason he’s deserving of being the favorite here is that he won the Coca-Cola 600 on a 1.5-mile layout, he was runner-up at Darlington’s 1.266-mile layout, and runner-up at Kansas last month. Terrible on the road courses and superspeedways this season with the NextGen car, but awesome at these big horsepower tracks. The next three races in this playoff round are all great tracks for Hamlin. How’s he feeling about it?
“I feel great about all of them,” Hamlin said. “All of them are just perfect for what our strengths are. I’m excited. We have been very strong on the intermediates all year and we tested Homestead a few weeks ago. We had a good test at Martinsville and even though we finished bad there in the spring, I feel good about what we have learned since then. We’re going to have to qualify well there, and track position is going to be huge. It’s time to go to work, but yeah, we’re really excited about our prospects in this next round.”
Chase Elliott (8/1) has never won at Las Vegas in 11 Cup starts, but he was runner-up in this race last season. Three top-fives aren’t too bad. He was ninth in the March race and broke a streak of leading laps in five straight Vegas races. But he is the Cup leader in points and wins (5). He has a knack for having races fall into his hands late.
Christopher Bell (8/1) was 10th in the March Vegas race after leading 32 laps. He's a real title contender and I think he likes this track.
“Vegas is one of my favorite tracks and Joe Gibbs Racing has been strong on the 1.5-mile tracks,” Bell said. “Vegas is one I’ve had circled for awhile and one we can contend for a win, or at least escape there with a good amount of points.”
Kyle Larson (8/1) has won an Xfinity Series race at LVMS in 2018 and he also won the spring race there last season. He also had 10 wins last season. This season, they use the NextGen car and he has only two wins with it. Listen up oddsmakers that keep making him single-digit odds each week. As a book, you can make money by attracting action at double-digit odds. I might bet him at 16-to-1 odds this season and so might a bunch of other bettors. His reputation precedes him and therefore I can’t bet him at dumb odds. New car, everyone!
Tyler Reddick (9/1) has won the last race at a 1.5-mile track at Texas on September 25. He also won a Truck Series race at LVMS in 2016 and he won an Xfinity Series race there in 2019. He’s going to the Hamlin/Jordan ride next year. He has three wins, and he’s eliminated from the playoffs. I think the only thing for him to do is win races in his last four starts for RCR.
It’s so weird knowing I’ve come full circle with Kyle Busch (10/1) at the Las Vegas bullring when he was racing as a teenager who didn’t qualify to get a driver's license yet. He beat everyone. He got noticed. He got signed. Then he found a home at JGR and he’s been there since 2008. His only win at Vegas came in 2009. He has 10 top-fives in 22 Cup starts at Vegas. This will be his last Vegas race with JGR before he drives to No. 8 next season for RCR. He’s always got to feel the pressure racing in front of friends and family in Las Vegas.
“It’s cool to be able to come back home and to have the notoriety, I guess, that we have now,” Busch said. “When we went out there back in those days, there were many other drivers who were way bigger than us and way more popular than us. Now that we’ve been here for a while and those other drivers aren’t there anymore, we’ve kind of upped ourselves on the ladder of that and it’s cool. One of these days, hopefully, there might be a road out there named after us, or a grandstand or something of that nature. Don’t get too far ahead of yourselves because that just means I get closer to retirement if they start doing that, I guess.”
Search around for better odds to win, but I think Ross Chastain (10/1) can do it even though he hasn’t won since Talladega in April. He’s been stuck on two wins for a while. But the good news is that he led the most laps (83) at LVMS in March finishing third. He’s tempered his enthusiasm and aggression, what got him his early wins, and conformed to peer pressure and threats of being punted. It’s worked. He’s third in points and has a great shot here and also Homestead next week. He also won the 2018 Xfinity Series race in Vegas. I’ll have action on him to win.
SOUTH POINT 400 BETTING RESOURCES
Date: Sunday, October 16, 2022
Venue: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Distance: 400.5 miles
Laps: 267
Network-Time: NBC - 2:30 p.m.
Defending Champion: Denny Hamlin
Martin Truex Jr. (12/1) has won at LVMS in 2017 and 2019 and he’s been running well on these types of tracks like most of the JGR cars this season. He was fifth at Kansas which is a good comparison to Vegas. He was eighth in the March Vegas race.
“Las Vegas has been a great track for us for a long time,” Truex said. “Even with this car in the spring, we were right there in contention for the win until that caution came out at the end. It’s a place we have a lot of confidence going to and we feel good about how we’ve ran at these types of tracks all year, so it should be a good weekend for us.”
Ryan Blaney's (12/1) 11.1 average finish in 12 Cup starts at Las Vegas is fourth best among all active drivers. He should have two Vegas wins, but errored in pit stop strategy and experienced bad luck. He’s got five top-fives. Check out this scenario: he wins this race to qualify for Phoenix and wins a title. It’s his first win of the season and then he wins the championship. That’s a daily double we might want to play. Bet race winner parlayed to championship winner if allowed.
William Byron (12/1) is still alive in the playoffs but he needs a couple of top-fives to advance in the next three races. He was fifth in the spring race, his best LVMS finish in the Cup Series. This is a race he can win, but I can’t bet him at these odds. He’s a wild card against my betting strategy.
Bubba Wallace (14/1) is the reason you might bet him at Las Vegas is that he’s going to have one of the fastest Toyotas in the race. He’s got speed on the 1.5-mile tracks and it's been an adaption of the same races Hamlin, his boss, has had. He won at Kansas last month, and Hamlin was runner-up. Wallace was also runner-up at the big horsepower track of Michigan. I'm searching for better odds but I’ll have a bet on him for sure.
READ MORE HERE...TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
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