NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Picks, Predictions
It’s the last 1.5-mile track of the NASCAR Cup schedule and it'll be at Homestead-Miami Speedway Sunday, and it’s the second race of the Round of 8 in the playoffs. Just three races remain on the season and the new NextGen car has shown to have its up and downs in performance and injury as two playoff drivers have had their seasons cut short due to concussion symptoms.
The good news about the NextGen car is that 19 different drivers have won races in the first 33 races -- everyone is equal, but the bad news is that the car may not be safe.
The new car also tore apart all past trends with drivers at certain tracks they like. Denny Hamlin at Martinsville, no dice. Kyle Larson on 1.5-mile tracks, no dice. Crew chiefs and car chiefs can no longer wiggle the rules with creative engineering. I always say if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.
But that’s all gone now, and it’s definitely not in the spirit of NASCAR origins. For goodness sake, NASCAR started by bootlegging liquor and the bootleggers needed souped-up cars to outrun the law.
Hopefully, NASCAR will take off the handcuffs next season, let the teams be NASCAR again, let Larson roll again on 1.5s, and stop trying to be F-1. Enough of the six road races.
Most of us like stock car racing for what it is and what it’s been. Low-profile tires with a single lug nut have proven to cause lots of problems this season. Is there a real stock car at the sales lot with a single lug nut? Be true to what NASCAR is supposed to be.
NASCAR, fix it all, please. I want my NASCAR back, and I want the drivers safe. Throw in a Rockingham date on the schedule too,
Here’s a look at the BetMGM odds to win Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 in order with some commentary and quotes from a few of the drivers:
DIXIE VODKA 400 PICKS & PREDICTIONS
Denny Hamlin (7/1) has to have a great run this week because the 1.5s and 2-mile tracks have been his bread and butter in 2022. The new car has created a problem. He was the best at Martinsville but not so much this season. Not even a glimmer in April. If he doesn’t win or grab a top-five here, he’s in trouble, because his last hope is Martinsville next week, and I like desperation. He knows this, his crew knows this, and he’s a three-time winner at Homestead and the wins happened at all stages of his career. I’ll bet he’s looking forward to this race.
“I’m looking forward to Homestead,” Hamlin said. “We had a very good test there a few weeks ago and really felt like we unloaded as one of the best cars. After two days, the field kind of caught up to us a little bit, but I have a lot of confidence going there. I feel like the driver can make a difference just with the different lines you can run, so I think that fits into our strengths on top of just how strong we have been on these types of tracks this year.”
Tyler Reddick (7/1) is a bad man in Homestead. Give him a decent car and he’ll do amazing stuff with it there. He won back-to-back Homestead races in 2018-19 in the Xfinity Series and then in his first two Cup starts he finished fourth as a rookie in 2020 and was runner-up last season. He rides the high line against the wall that Larson rides and has had better success. I think he’s going to win this week so search for the best price.
Chase Elliott (10/1) has never won at Homestead but he has a ninth-place average finish in six starts with two top-fives. I caution against him here because his only big success on 1.5s and 2-mile tracks was using the superspeedway package at Atlanta. But this guy is so smooth that I can’t visualize him not racing for his second title at Phoenix. He’s so calm, I just don’t know that his car is ready to win here.
"The good news is I feel like we have a really smart and talented group of guys that are going to work on it,’ Elliott said. “We’ve been talking a lot this week and if this weekend goes bad, I can assure you it will not be for a lack of effort. Great opportunity here for us right now and we’re still very much alive in this deal. We just need to go down there and just try to have a solid weekend. Do we have to go win the race? No, I don’t think you have to go win the race, but I think you put yourself in position, getting some solid stage points, being up front and being in the mix. Those are things that are going to hedge your bet of being happy after Martinsville (Speedway)."
Joey Logano (10/1) won last week for his third win of the season, but more importantly grabbed the first of four Championship 4 invitations. He’s going to be racing for his second Cup title at Phoenix on Nov. 6. He has a 14th-place average finish in 13 Cup starts with one win, and his first championship, and he’s had top-fives in four of the last five races I’ve grouped together. Win at Vegas, runner-up at Texas, fourth at Darlington, and fourth at Michigan. That’s a stacked deck. He can go all out for the win this week with nothing to fear.
In half of his eight Homestead starts Kyle Larson (10/1) had four top-fives with 330 laps led. His move was to rim-ride all the way around the track. Maximum speed and little movement help the tires stay fresher on long runs. I expect him to do some riding up top again but the new car has changed a lot about what we thought we knew based on the old car.
"I think this car is just a little different at Homestead-Miami,” Larson said. “Nothing crazy. I think running the wall is a little bit easier but maybe not way faster than it used to be compared to the other lanes. I still think it is just a lot easier to run the wall than before. You may see more people up there and it may be a little bit harder to pass than in the past."
Ross Chastain (10/1) has been stuck on two wins since winning at Talladega in April and along the way, he’s gained plenty of enemies among veteran drivers feeling they need to get paybacks due to his aggressive driving style that ruined some days. He’s been on the lowdown, keeping quiet and driving shackled, but Las Vegas was incredible. He led the most laps there again (68) and was runner-up. He’s going to be fast here again despite no special Homestead moments. Championship? He’s second in points. I think I like his arrogance.
Ryan Blaney (10/1) is seventh in points now after a disappointing 28th at Las Vegas, but let’s not forget that he was fifth in the first stage and won the second stage, and led 39 laps. He was on his way to his first win of the season and a bump in points. I feel like he’s going berserk with just about every driver trying to bully him out of the way. He owes some paybacks for sure. One top-five in seven Homestead starts. I’m rooting for him. But I didn’t bet him to win this week.
DIXIE VODKA 400 BETTING RESOURCES
Date: Sunday, October 23, 2022
Venue: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Location: Homestead, Florida
Distance: 400.5 miles
Laps: 267
Network-Time: NBC - 2:30 p.m.
Defending Champion: William Byron
Christopher Bell (12/1) got caught up in Bubba Wallace’s road rage last week and it cost him in the playoffs. He’s all the way down to eighth in points and needs to probably win one of the next two races to advance to Phoenix for a shot at the title. He still has the most top-fives (11) among Toyota drivers. The key thing here is that he’s thinking win.
“As disappointing as Vegas was, if anyone can pull through, it’s our No. 20 group,” Bell said. “I expect to be extremely competitive again and am ready to tackle the challenge.”
Just when I thought Kyle Busch (12/1) was going to pack it in and look towards 2023 with RCR Racing, he battles like old times through diversity and comes through with third place at his home track in Las Vegas. He’s not done yet by any means. In 17 Homestead starts he has five top-fives and 465 laps led with two huge wins that gave him his two season championships. I’ll bet he loves Homestead.
“For sure,” Busch said. “Obviously, any time you go back to a place where we got to celebrate not one, but two championships, those are great memories I will have, and my family will have, forever. It’s also just a fun place to race. I don’t think there’s any driver who doesn’t get excited to race there, you just have some many options on where to run. We’ve been very good there the last 10 races or so and hoping we can get our SKITTLES Lime is Back Camry TRD back to victory lane there. Would be special to get one more win with JGR and with Mars before we close the season out together.”
Martin Truex Jr (12/1) has no wins this season. No playoffs. So Naturally, he’s desperate for a win. He was seventh last week at Vegas and sixth at Michigan in August. He has a 9.9 average finish in 17 starts at Homestead that is fourth best among active drivers. He has a 2017 win and seven top-fives. I wonder how he feels about this weekend.
“I feel pretty good about this weekend,” Truex said. “Homestead has been a good track for us, and we were able to do the test a few weeks ago, so we should be good this weekend. I really enjoy the track; it’s got different options as far as where you can run, and the surface is worn out. That seems to be where we have been our best this season, so I’m looking forward to it.”
READ MORE HERE....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
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