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| Talladega Superspeedway and the allure of The Big One. |
TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
Location: Talladega, Alabama
It’s Talladega Superspeedway time where a driver's true rating is diminished because of so many obstacles set before them between the car, speeds at 200 mph, attitude of the 2.66-mile high-banked track, and poor luck of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Any driver can win as opposed to a normal race where maybe only 14 drivers have a chance.
Maybe a driver can better explain the nuances we'll see in Sunday's Geico 500.
“I have no idea,” said Kevin Harvick. “You just show up and see how it develops. All you can do is show up for a weekend at Talladega and see how it develops and go from there.”
The edges that teams have on normal tracks are wiped away at Talladega and Daytona because the cars are different. They got going too fast and had to slow down so for 30 years they used restrictor plates before going to the tapered spacer last year at Talladega. Both restrict air to the engine which reduces horsepower, although the spacer gives the driver more throttle response.
“The rules have changed, but the same racing principles apply,” Clint Bowyer said regarding his strategy for Talladega.“It’s all about finding your teammates, finding your allies.”
Clint Bowyer, a two-time winner at Talladega, is a 20/1 betting choice to win this week and his immediate allies to draft with are his three Stewart-Haas Racing teammates.
“You look around to see where Kevin (Harvick), Aric (Almirola) and Cole (Custer) are on the track,” Bowyer said. “Then you look around to see where the Penske and Roush guys are, plus the other Ford drivers. Those are the guys most likely to help you out.”
It’s first about the team and manufacturer, but with a few laps to go it's all about the driver trying to win and if it means a Ford driver helping or using a Chevrolet to try and win, that is the plan at that instant.
Bowyer is one of my eight bets I have on a driver to win. I like to take a couple of the favorites, a couple of drivers in the 20/1 odds range, and then a few at 30/1 or higher odds. No betting matchups because the volatility of the track reduces the edge on a side. Sportsbooks understand this as well which is why Bubba Wallace is 40/1 to win this week when he’s normally 500/1. Harvick is 14/1 this week when he’s usually the 6/1 favorite.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook doesn’t have any driver posted in single digits (9/1 or lower) because “The Big One” wipes out favorites and longshots with equal vengeance.
I often say anyone can win, but the reality of it lately is that most of the favorites have been winning at Talladega. Some recent longshots to win? Aric Almirola was 18/1 in his 2018 win, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was 50/1 to win in 2017, David Ragan was 60/1 to win in 2013, and Brad Keselowski was 100/1 to win in 2009 when he was driving an underfunded car for his first career Cup win.
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