Friday, June 12, 2020

Homestead Betting Preview: 2020 Dixie Vodka 400

Kyle Busch gets his first win of season Sunday?
NASCAR has a nice new wrinkle added to Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one that hasn’t been seen at a race since March 8 at Phoenix Raceway. Fans will be in the stands. There will only be 1,000 of them, but at least its a start.

“I always thought I appreciated the fans and the atmosphere you feel when you walk around the track but, once you live not having any of that, you realize how much you miss everyone,” said Clint Bowyer, who is listed by the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook at 50-to-1 odds to win Sunday.

“This weekend will be nice to have some folks back in the stands. I’m not going to be happy until everyone is back and healthy at the track. Who knows when that will be, but it will be good to see folks in the stands on Sunday. I hope we can give them a heck of a race.”

The fans will be comprised of military personnel, first responders, and their immediate family members. They won’t be allowed on the infield and they have to take a series of precautionary measures before entering the stands such as taking a health screening, wearing a mask, and social distancing while in the stands. Still, it’s better than nothing and looks like we’re getting closer to what we used to know as normalcy.

Next week at Talladega Superspeedway, the same procedures will apply as 5,000 guests will be admitted as well as a limited space outside the track for motorhomes above the superstretch.

Fans or no fans, all I want this week is to have a bet on the winner and I think I have him.

First, let’s get some background on the track and race package being used in what will be the 12th race of the season following Wednesday night’s race at Martinsville.

Homestead-Miami Speedway has had 21 Cup Series dates, all in November, and when they changed the track from a flat 1.5-mile layout to a high-banked 1.5-mile layout, it became the last race of the season in a trade of dates with duped Atlanta Motor Speedway because it always seemed to rain at Atlanta in the last race. NASCAR, who owns Homestead-Miami Speedway through its subsidiary International Speedway Corporation (ISC), immediately changed the points system and started The Chase to the Championship format in 2004 with the season finale Championship Race being at Homestead. Atlanta, a Speedway Motorsports Incorporated (SMI) track, got the shaft.

It’s somewhat important to know that no one has raced at Homestead in the day time throughout a hot and humid June afternoon. It’s also very important to know that only elite drivers win at Homestead. The last six winners all won season championships in the new playoff format. Nine of the last 10 winners have all been different drivers.

Sunday’s race will be the fifth race of 2020 on a 1.5-mile track, but its paperclip shape is much different from the traditional D-shaped or quad-ovals raced on everywhere else. This will also be the eighth race of the season using the race package with engines producing 550 horsepower. On Wednesday at Martinsville, they used the 750 horsepower package for the third time.

Another New Winner?

Martin Truex Jr. became the seventh different driver to win a race in 2020 with another Martinsville win. Four of those drivers have two wins apiece. While there’s an appearance of more parity this season with some solid finishes from teams we don’t consider upper-tiered, the seven winners so far are elites. But perhaps the most elite of the drivers, defending Cup Champion Kyle Busch, is still winless. This looks like the perfect spot for him to win.

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