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| Kevin Harvick has been a beast at Atlanta for the past six races. |
So when the series heads back east to Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1.5-mile high-banked layout for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, picking a winner is not as simple as it was in 2019. However, we do have the advantage of seeing this week’s race package with engines producing 550 horsepower twice this season at Las Vegas and Fontana. The data gained from those two races should be put to the forefront of handicapping or creating odds more than Atlanta’s history.
The biggest takeaway I had with both Las Vegas and Fontana combined was that Hendrick Motorsports and the new Chevy body design had made huge strides from 2019. All four Hendrick drivers looked to have cars capable of winning with Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman looking the best among the team. All three Mustangs at Team Penske are capable of winning. Harvick is ready to win and the four Joe Gibbs Toyotas don’t have the edge they had last season winning nine of 14 races using this race package.
Let’s take a look at the top candidates to win at Atlanta using the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s odds to win which were released Monday afternoon:
Alex Bowman (10-1): His first career win in the Cup Series came last season on the 1.5-mile layout at Chicagoland, and so far this season using this race package he probably should have won in both races. He dominated at Fontana with a win after leading a race-high 110 laps and the week before he was the fastest down the stretch at Las Vegas before a late pit sequence stopped him from passing for the lead. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be just as good Sunday.
Brad Keselowski (6-1): The past three seasons at Atlanta while using two different race packages, he’s been the best with two wins and a runner-up and he’s led with most laps in six of his last seven starts there. Based on what I’ve seen in two races at Las Vegas (7th) and Fontana (5th), he should again be battling for the win late in the race. Penske already has things figured out in all 2020 race packages and there is little difference between all three Mustangs.
Chase Elliott (6-1): He’s Atlanta’s active leader with a 10.5 average finish between four Cup starts, which doesn’t surprise considering he hails from Georgia. He’ll have the loudest cheers during the race and he’ll likely lead a bunch of laps as he did at Las Vegas (70) when he won the first two stages. He followed that dominant performance up with a fourth-place finish at Fontana. The stars and stats aligned nicely for him to get his first Cup win at his hometown track.
Kyle Busch (8-1): He was the first Toyota driver ever to win at Atlanta in 2008 and won there again in 2013. He was sixth last season and was seventh the season before starting from the pole. It’s not often you get 8-1 odds on Busch in a non-Superspeedway race and his runner-up finish at Fontana two weeks ago suggests he’s ready for his first 2020 win. And believe me, he has sleepless nights being angry that he’s winless through the first four Cup races.
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