Time for racing, and betting, at Daytona

The volatility of Daytona.

The green flag to the 62nd annual Daytona 500 drops Sunday to kick off the first of 36 races on the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series campaign. There will 40 drivers starting the race and about 35 of them have a legitimate chance to win, including all three Las Vegas drivers: Brendan Gaughan, Kurt Busch, and Kyle Busch.

Gaughan, the son of South Point owner Michael Gaughan and grandson of Las Vegas gaming pioneer Jackie Gaughan, made his Cup debut in the 2004 Daytona 500 and for the fourth straight season will be racing only the four Cup races at Daytona and Talladega. He’s been in the mix late upfront with the leaders at both Daytona and Talladega the last few years and should be again Sunday which is all you can ask for in these types of volatile races. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has him listed as part of the field at 40-1 odds.

Kurt Busch (20-1) won the 2004 Cup Series Championship and captured his first win on any restrictor-plate race in the 2017 Daytona 500. He was known as the best plate driver without a win. He has 13 top-fives finishes in 37 career Daytona starts, including three-times being runner-up. Expect him to be within the top-10 late in the race.

Kyle Busch won his second Cup Series Championship last season and has won almost every race in the series except the Daytona 500. His lone Daytona win in 2008 came in the July race. Last season he had his best Daytona 500 finish with second-place behind Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin.

After a while, it starts to weigh on drivers not winning NASCAR’s biggest race. Dale Earnhardt didn’t win it until the very end of his career in 1998, and some like Tony Stewart and Mark Martin never won it. The Daytona 500 is the only thing missing from Kyle’s trophy case.

I always root for the home teams and those three drivers are right up there on my list with UNLV and the Golden Knights, but I must confess I didn’t bet any of them to win on Sunday.

Let’s talk about some Daytona 500 betting strategies followed by a few drivers I like most among the 35 that have a legitimate chance to win.

Betting the 500

I wish I could offer a proven formula to win consistently in the Daytona 500. But because of the volatility of the high-banked 2.5-mile layout, the race is basically a crapshoot or like throwing darts. Some respected NASCAR bettors I know don’t even bet Daytona or Talladega because the volatility devalues a driver’s rating for the track. That element of an accident unsuspectedly finding a driver isn’t the same on the 32 other races on the season when a driver’s rating does hold true.

The oddsmakers know this as well which is why bettors can get such great odds on the usual favorites while not getting large prices on drivers that are usually 500-1 to win at regular tracks. Anyone can win is not just a saying, it’s for real at Daytona.

Also, I rarely bet driver match-ups at Daytona and Talladega due to the driver rating equality. There’s no edge unless getting occasionally baited by any driver getting +110 or higher.

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