Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Martinsville Betting Preview: 2019 STP 500

Kyle Busch has two wins at Martinsville.
Kyle Busch has seven top-five finishes in his last seven starts at Martinsville Speedway, including his first two wins on the flat half-mile layout. He comes off his 200th career win between NASCAR's three national series (998 starts) and he going for three straight Cup wins, something he's done twice already in his career (2015, 2018). He's got some serious momentum going right now which is why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted him as the 8-to-5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $160) to win Sunday's STP 500.

The Las Vegas native will race in Saturday's Truck Series race, which the SuperBook posted him as the 1-to-2 favorite (-200), and Sunday's race will be his 1,000th NASCAR start between the three series. He's winning races at an incredible 20 percent rate. And so far in the 2019 Cup season, he's won 2-of-5 races for a 40 percent clip.

Another major factor in the low odds on Busch this week is that the Cup Series will be using the same race package used at Phoenix two weeks ago with no aero-ducts and an engine with 750 horsepower that he dominated with leading 177 of 312 laps. Yes, he's got plenty of reasons to be optimistic this week.

“We’ve run well, the last two years especially, at Martinsville and we’re definitely pumped about getting back there," Busch said. "I’m hoping we can have a really good car there again this time around like we did the last several years. We led a lot of laps and we were really fast in our last seven races there. Hoping that some of those things we were able to push through there a few times before and get our M&M’S Chocolate Bar Camry in victory lane there this weekend."

Busch's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin is a native Virginian who knows the track better than most with five wins and always gets to the front leading laps in 20 of his last 23 Martinsville starts. He'll be getting some home cooking this weekend, but he's not getting overly excited. It's all business.

“I treat every race the same and I know our team is always working hard to give the FedEx Toyota the best chance to take the checkered flag," Hamlin said. "I’m proud of my accomplishments at Martinsville, but every race is different and we will need to be fully focused and be at our best if we are going to have a shot at winning this weekend.”

He was runner-up last fall and won the first stage of both races last season. And despite him saying he treats all races the same, I don't buy it. He hasn't won there since 2015 and it bugs him. That's his home turf. He's run great with all four packages that have been used this season and the package used this week he finished fifth with at Phoenix. Because of his Daytona 500 win, he's clinched a Playoff berth and can now be more relaxed. He's talking big picture, but I'm looking for him to more aggressive than usual. Because of Busch's ridiculously low odds, Hamlin is the beneficiary getting sweet 10-to-1 odds.

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