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| Happy Labor Day Weekend! |
Throw some meats on the grill, grab a cold one and let's watch the Bojangles' Southern 500 together. It's a family tradition for most of us and it's been a NASCAR tradition at Darlington Raceway since 1950. Just two races remain until the green flag of the Playoffs drops in Las Vegas so for every driver currently outside of the top-16 in points, they've got two whacks at getting in by winning one the two, Sunday's race and next week at the Brickyard.
I don't believe we'll see a new winner in either race, but I am intrigued by a possible new winner next week at the Brickyard. Joe Gibbs Racing's Daniel Suarez, who sits 19th in points, has run extremely well of late. He's the teammate of Kyle Busch and last month at Pocono Raceway he had his best career Cup race starting from the pole and finishing second. The reason that's notable is that Pocono is the best comparison to Indianapolis due to long straights and flat tight turns (Pocono turn 3). Lots of horsepower is needed and he had plenty of it and should again next week. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has Suarez listed at 200/1 odds to win the championship, but there's probably better value by just betting Suarez to win at Indy at a 60/1 price.
As for this week at Darlington's 1.366-mile layout, I don't see any driver outside the top-16 winning, but I can easily see a winless driver on the season winning. There's a couple driver that have figured out this difficult track. All four turns around the track are different and the banking ranges from 23 to 25 degrees. They call it 'The Track Too Tough to Tame' and they also call it "The Lady in Black' who gives all drivers at some point in their career a Darlington Stripe which the rub on side of their car after smacking into the wall. No driver can avoid it. It happens to them all at some point no matter how hard they try.
“My first race and first stripe – that place chewed me up and spit me out," said Kurt Busch who won his first race of 2018 two weeks ago at Bristol. "I think I wrecked 20 times, kept bouncing off the wall. I wore out the tires but kept going. I probably finished 40th my first time there. It really was an eye-opener on how tough NASCAR was going to be.”
Busch had an amazing battle with Ricky Craven in 2003 at Darlington. They bumped and banged, slipping and sliding all over the place battling for the lead in the final 10 laps. Craven finally took the lead by a bumper on the finish to lead his only lap of the race. Busch was runner-up and in still remains his best finish after 21 career starts. It's tough. Suarez found out last season as a rookie when Turn 1 found him quickly to end his day in 38th.
Clint Bowyer barely turned a few laps last year at Darlington before his engine died and forced him to finish dead last. He doesn't have a single top-five in 12 starts on the track that really is too tough to tame for him.
“I like the uniqueness of the track," said Bowyer. "I’ve struggled to have good finishes there but we’ve always raced well. We just can’t seem to seal the deal at the end. Something always goes haywire in the end but, sooner or later, we are going to overcome that and have a good weekend.”
Expect to see all the drivers that have done well on the 1.5-mile tracks do well at Darlington, but the Lady in Black adds a bit of a wild card that should create more drama than we've seen on any other 1.5-mile track. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have each won three times on 1.5s and Martin Truex Jr. has one win.
They truly are "The Big-3."
Truex won at Darlington in 2016, Harvick won there in 2014 and Kyle Busch won there in 2008. Of the three, Truex has the best average finish at 11.3 over 12 starts.
“It’s getting close to show time and we’re going to scratch, claw and grind for every playoff point,” Truex said of the upcoming playoffs. “You can’t leave anything on the table.”
Expect Truex to be good again this week. And the same can be said for Harvick who will be using his winning Atlanta chassis that led 181 of 325 laps in February. Since moving to Stewart Haas Racing in 2014 he's been on the Darlington pole in three of four starts and averaged a 4.2 finish. His first career win there in 2014 came just before winning his first career Cup Championship.
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