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| Kevin Harvick won at Bristol in 2016. He's 5/1 to win Saturday night. |
Sounds crazy, right?
They've only combined to win 17 of the 23 races this season and Busch has seven Cup wins on the high-banked concrete layout, including the last two raced there. He's also got nine Xfinity Series wins and five Truck Series wins there. He's also got the next move in the 'anything you can do I can do better' game he and Kevin Harvick have been playing all season. Harvick just broke the tie and passed Busch with his series-leading seventh win last week at Michigan.
“Yes and no," Busch said of responding to Harvick's win. "Certainly, Harvick has been fast there, too. I think he won there a couple of years ago. But obviously, we’re kind of on a hot streak with Bristol. We love going there. I would like to think that we can go there, be fast and be able to respond, absolutely. So we’ll see what we can do getting there, and hopefully having a fast racecar and doing what we normally do there, just try to stay out of trouble. It’s a tough place to stay out of trouble. This is the first time we’ve had M&M’S White Chocolate on the car, so hoping it keeps the good-luck streak alive and we can win three Cup races in a row for the first time there.”
The last driver to win three straight at Bristol was Kyle's big brother Kurt Busch (2003-04) who has a total of five wins at Thunder Valley, the last coming in 2006, the season prior to the repaving in between races in 2007. Kyle Busch won his first Bristol Cup race in the spring of 2007 in a Hendrick Chevy in the last race under the old layout which had steeper banking at 36 degrees in the turns and only one preferred groove. Now there are two grooves and the variable banking is 24 to 30 degrees.
Busch has been the best driver at Bristol since the changes and he's fast approaching Darrell Waltrip's all-time track record with 12 wins. Because of that dominance, I can't leave him out of the wagering strategy this week and I'll consider 3/1 odds to win offered at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook extremely fair. He won't be my top play, but I'll have Busch in a situation as insurance against all my other wagers so I'll break even or show a small profit if he wins.
Kevin Harvick is one of four active drivers to have won on both layouts and grabbed his second career Cup win at Bristol in the 2016 night race. He's finished eighth or better in his last six Bristol start (seventh-place in April race, no laps led) and his 13th-place average finish is second-best among actives. The Westgate has him at 5/1 which looks outstanding, but I can't back him this week.
One thing that should also be noted in favor of Harvick doing well this week is his Dover win in May. Dover is a 1-mile high-banked concrete layout, kind of like a bigger Bristol. Because the set-up requirements are similar there's a solid correlation between the tracks. In that race, Harvick led 201 of the 400 laps and was followed by teammate Clint Bowyer who led 40 laps. Brad Keselowski led 108 laps and finished sixth. More on him later.
One driver I feel confident about crossing off my betting list is Martin Truex Jr. who has the third-most wins this season with four. He's never won at Bristol in 25 starts. In fact, he's only had two top-fives in a career there, the last coming in 2012. He was 21st in this race last season and then was 30th there in April after an accident which raised his average finish at Bristol to 20.7. It's just not his track which is why the Westgate has him at 12-to-1 odds this week.
Despite Harvick having an incredible 17 top-fives in 23 starts this season, I'm leaving him off the list. Here's a couple guys I'm rolling with this week starting with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who is 25-to-1 at the Westgate but can be found at higher odds elsewhere.
“Bristol is by far one of our best tracks statistically and my favorite track," Stenhouse said. "We had a strong run there earlier this year so hopefully we can carry the information we learned into this weekend. I think the night race at Bristol is by far one of best races of the year. Hopefully, we can get our Fastenal Ford into victory lane and secure a spot in the playoffs.”
READ MORE HERE.....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
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