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| Can Kyle Larson beat Busch, Harvick & Truex this week? |
Next Race: FireKeepers Casino 400
The Place: Michigan International Speedway
The Date: Sunday, June 10
The Time: 2 p.m. ET
TV: FOX, 1:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 400 miles (200 Laps); Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 60),
Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 120), Final Stage (Ends on Lap 200)
No. 42 Going For #4
Kyle Larson is the only driver in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series who can claim to be a current three-time defending race winner at any track and the 25-year-old will go for win number four this weekend at Michigan International Speedway in Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 (2 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
It’s a rare accomplishment in this time of such fierce competition, but Larson has proven himself to be especially good – and fortunate - at the two-mile track in the heart of America’s automotive industry.
Only NASCAR Hall of Famer Bill Elliott has eclipsed Larson’s consecutive streak of success at Michigan – sweeping both the 1985 and 1986 seasons to win four straight. Another Hall of Famer, David Pearson won an incredible seven times at Michigan in a nine-race stretch from 1972-76, but never more than three consecutively.
Kevin Harvick is the last Monster Energy Series driver to score four straight wins at a track – doing it at ISM Raceway outside of Phoenix from fall 2013 to spring 2015.
Larson seemed to immediately take to the high-banked sweeping Michigan track – finishing runner-up in his NASCAR Xfinity Series debut in 2013 and third in 2015, perhaps foreshadowing his current impressive Monster Energy Series run.
“What our team has been able to do at Michigan the last few races is pretty special, and I hope we can keep it up this weekend with another win,’’ Larson said. “We have had good cars there just about every year I’ve raced, and I think we’ve hit on some things recently that will have us taking another fast Chevy to Michigan this time around too.
“Getting the setup right is important everywhere, but I feel like it’s even more important at a track like Michigan. We’re coming off a good week of executing throughout the race, so hopefully more of that can lead to another win.”
Michigan is Their Playground
In recent years, Michigan International Speedway has proved to be child’s play for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series’ young rising stars.
As we’ve covered, 25-year-old Kyle Larson has claimed ownership over Victory Lane the past three races. But he’s been joined on the virtual podium by a pair of now-22-year-olds.
Chase Elliott has tallied four starts at Michigan in the Monster Energy Series, finishing second in his first three starts and eighth in his most recent. Meanwhile, Michigan-native Erik Jones has just two starts at his home track, finishing 13th and third.
Also of note – the June 2016 race produced the youngest top three in Monster Energy Series history as Joey Logano (then 26), Elliott (then 20) and Larson (then 23) finished 1-2-3.
Finding His Groove
Since its repave in 2012, Michigan has proven to be a bit of a challenge for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship points leader Kyle Busch. His one win in 26 starts there came in the last race before the 2012 repave (August, 2011). In the 12 races since then, he’s had six finishes of 30th or worse and only three top 10s. However, two of those top 10s came just last year when he was seventh and 10th. He’s only led 64 laps in the last 12 races, but he led 54 laps total in the two races last year.
“Regardless of new pavement or not, it’s wide-open racing, and you can run from top to bottom more and more every race there as the groove widens out,’’ said the driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.
“The biggest thing used to be to find grip there. But, with the new surface, there is a ton of grip, now. Before, you had grip for maybe five laps and then you’d just be out to lunch. But now, the tire wear is all out the window and the racetrack is very fast. And the wide racetrack is good. That’s what makes Michigan so exciting and so fun. That’s the biggest deal about it.”
With a third-place finish at Pocono last week, Busch holds an 87-point edge over second-place Kevin Harvick in the standings. He has led the points standings for the past nine weeks.
Ready to Roll Back to Victory Lane
This is a rare venue where the season’s most prolific winner Harvick has struggled, comparatively speaking, for him, to the rest of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The five-time 2018 winner has one victory (August, 2010) at Michigan and as with his closest championship challenger Kyle Busch, that win came prior to the track’s repave in 2012.
However, Harvick has run well on the two-mile high banks and another win certainly seems merely a matter of time and circumstance. The driver of the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford has five runner-up finishes since 2013 including an impressive streak of four consecutive. He was runner-up at both 2013 and both 2014 Michigan races. He finished second again in 2015 and has seven top-five showings in the last 10 races. He was 14th and 13th last year.
Harvick also holds a unique distinction at Michigan – having won a race in all of NASCAR’s national series, from the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (2014) to Xfinity (2003) to Monster Energy Series.
According to the veteran, Cup competition at Michigan has a tendency to go very well or very “South” quickly.
“How you finish at Michigan depends on how your day is going,’’ Harvick said. “If you’re having a good day, it’s not really hard to tell your guys what you need and everyone is in a good mood. If you’re having a bad day, you can get behind at Michigan really fast.”
He continued, “I think we’ve finished really well there over the last couple of years and scored a lot of second-place finishes and top-fives. I learned a long time ago that sometimes those things happen, so it’s better to be on a top-five streak than a 10th-place streak.”
Martin Truex Jr. Takes It From “Top Two” to “Big Three”
Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have been joined by defending Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr. as the drivers to beat as the playoff picture starts to come together. The trio have combined to win 11 of the opening 14 races.
After issuing a non-too subtle reminder that he’s the reigning champ with his victory at Pocono Raceway last weekend, Martin Truex Jr. would love to add to his resume at Michigan – a track he is winless at in 24 starts.
He has, however, proven himself very good in the Irish Hills. He has four top-six finishes in the last six races, was sixth in this race in 2017 and runner-up in the second Michigan race, leading laps in both. In all, Truex has three runner-up finishes and three third-place finishes – viable near-misses at a track where he has run well.
His win at Pocono in the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota was his fourth consecutive top-five showing of the season and followed runner-up finishes at Kansas and Charlotte – proving he is still very much in the hunt to become the first driver to win consecutive championships since Jimmie Johnson’s five-year title streak from 2006-2010.
Prime Position
Joey Logano is one six active multi-time winners at Michigan and arrives at the track eyeing a return to his impressive 2018 early-season form.
After a run of seven consecutive top-10 finishes from Auto Club Speedway to Talladega Superspeedway – including a victory at Talladega – the Team Penske driver has had two top-10s in the four races since and dropped to third place in the standings after a seven-week run in second.
He has two victories (2013, 2016) and three pole positions at Michigan, however, and won from the pole position in 2016. He’s finished among the top-10 in nine of the last 10 races at Michigan and led laps in seven of those. In 2013, he scored his first win with Team Penske at Michigan.
Home Track Favorites
Former Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion Brad Keselowski and second-year driver Erik Jones are Michigan natives looking to score their first victory at their “home track.’’
Keselowski, 34, of Rochester Hills, Michigan, won the pole position in the last Monster Energy Series race at Michigan, but eight top-10 finishes in 17 starts is as close as he’s come to scoring his first victory. The Team Penske driver had a string of six consecutive top-10 finishes in the races from 2014 to 2016 – including a career best of third (August, 2016), where he’s finished three times (also August, 2011; June, 2014).
A victory Sunday would be his first of the 2018 season in the famous No. 2 Ford and he’s coming off back-to-back top-five efforts in Charlotte and Pocono.
Likewise, Jones, 22, of Byron, Michigan, has quickly established Michigan International Speedway as a favorable venue for himself – and a good opportunity to perhaps pick up his first career Monster Energy Series victory.
In only two Cup starts there, the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota driver has already ranked among the top-three drivers in loop data statistics (since 2005) such as laps run in the top 15 (78.1 percent) and average running position (11.3). He had finishes of 13th and third in the two races last year.
Although still ranked in the playoff-hopeful Top-16, Jones is looking to regain his early season form. He had four top-10s in the opening seven races, but has only one (at Kansas Speedway) in the last seven races.
Fond Foundation
Former Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion Matt Kenseth is making the last of his four early season starts in the No. 6 Ford for Roush Fenway Racing this weekend and this venue in particular is one where Kenseth has had success.
His three wins at Michigan (two with Roush) tie him for most among active drivers. He won from the pole position in the August, 2015 race and has 14 top-five and 20 top-10 finishes in 37 total starts there.
Each week Kenseth has improved the finish of the No. 6 car. A crash hampered his much-anticipated return to the seat at Kansas, but he has finishes of 17th at Charlotte and then 13th at Pocono last week. After this week’s race, Kenseth will return to the wheel of the car at Indianapolis, then Dover, and conclude at the season’s final races in Phoenix and Miami.
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