Top-20 Geico 500 Prediction: Crap shoot, but Ford won past five at Talladega

Brad Keselowski won last fall at Talladega, his fifth there.

As a Vegas bookmaker, Micah Roberts was the first to offer expanded NASCAR betting. Now he hands out NASCAR winners to his followers.

At Bristol Motor Speedway, Roberts said Kyle Busch "owns this track" and would win there for the seventh time. The result? Busch came from behind and crossed the finish line .63 seconds ahead of runner-up Kyle Larson.

Earlier this season at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Roberts told SportsLine readers to jump on Kevin Harvick, who had the same 9/2 odds as Martin Truex Jr. and Larson. Harvick dominated, leading for 181 of 325 laps and cruising to victory by 2.69 seconds. Roberts again was all over Harvick at Las Vegas as Harvick delivered another lopsided win. Four weeks ago, Roberts was very high on Clint Bowyer, who snapped his 190-race winless streak in the STP 500.

Roberts' uncanny picks come as no surprise. In the 2017 NASCAR playoffs, Roberts picked nine of the 10 winners. In 2016, Roberts told readers to back Denny Hamlin at 15/1 in the Daytona 500. The result? Hamlin edged Truex Jr. for the checkered flag. This is the same Roberts who nailed Hamlin at 40/1 to win at Watkins Glen later that year.

With the Geico 500 set for 2 p.m. ET Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, Roberts analyzed the entire field and released his Top 20 finishers in order. We can tell you he's not high on Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites at 10/1, noting he has no Top-5 finishes at Talladega in eight starts with Stewart Haas Racing. But Roberts loves a major sleeper who excels in restrictor-plate races. Anyone who bets on this underdog could hit it big... Join SportsLine here to see Micah Roberts' full projected leaderboard, and see which long shot stuns the racing world, all from the nation's premier NASCAR betting expert!

Here is Roberts' writeup:

It's restrictor-plate race time again, which means that up to 35 drivers have a legitimate chance of winning Sunday's Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

All the cars are basically equal with special rules in place for Talladega and Daytona to slow the cars down and make the races safer. Under the same rules in the season-opening Daytona 500, Austin Dillon won and paid out 60-to-1 odds. Runner-up Darrell Wallace Jr finished second and was posted at 80-to-1 odds. Both those drivers are two to consider taking a shot with this week as well.

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