Dover Betting Preview: 2016 Citizen Soldier 400

Dover's concrete layout always a challenge. 

Wave goodbye to four drivers this week.

We've got two races down in NASCAR's 10-race playoff format and at the conclusion of Sunday's Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway we'll see four of the 16 Chase drivers eliminated. Two drivers, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, have automatically for next round of three races by virtue of winning the last two weeks at Chicago and New Hampshire.

The four drivers sitting 12 through 16 in the Chase standings that are in danger of being eliminated from championship contention and the four that most experts believed would be on the chopping block first. Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray are 5-points behind 12th-placeKyle Larson. Tony Stewart is 6-points behind and Chris Buescher, the Cinderella of the bunch, is 25-points back.

In the May 15 race at Dover, Buescher had the best finish among the four with 18th-place. McMurray was 21st, Dillon 33rd and followed by Stewart in 34th. This will be Stewart's last visit to Dover, a place he has won three times at over his career, the last time in 2013 which was his last win before winning at Sonoma in June.

Because Dover's 1-mile, high banked concrete oval is so unique and there is only one race of data to apply, to handicap every angle possible I like to refer to race run at Bristol, which is a half-mile shorter, but it is high-banked and concrete. I got the idea about a decade ago when I started seeing crew chiefs refer to it when discussing Dover and sometimes bring the exact same chassis to each track. If it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me, and there have been some strong correlations with results over the years.

It was just over a month ago that the series was at Bristol. Harvick would win the race, but some of the top finishers were surprises, such as Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finishing second, Dillon fourth with Buescher in fifth and McMurray in eighth. That's a wild group that no one could have possibly predicted, but it gives reason to believe that Larson might not be so safe with his five-point lead.

However, Larson has a 6.2 average finish in five Dover starts, including runner-up behind Matt Kenseth in May where he led 85 laps. Harvick, who won this race last year -- his first ever at Dover, finished 15th but led a race-high 117 laps. The May race featured 19 lead changes among 10 drivers and had 12 cautions which kept things competitive with lots of restarts.

Before we get into to will win Sunday, let's take a look at the updated Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook odds to win the Sprint Cup.

Odds to win 2016 Sprint Cup (11/20/16)
Kevin Harvick 9/2
Joey Logano 10/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 6/1
Kyle Larson 12/1
Tony Stewart 80/1
Chase Elliott 15/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Austin Dillon 200/1
Field (all others) 5000/1

Read More Here.....Dover Top-5 Finish Prediction on VegasInsider.com

Chevrolet Notes & Quotes heading into Dover

Jimmie Johnson knows the proper way around Dover.

DETROIT – (September 27, 2016) – Time is of the essence. All eight of Chevrolet’s Chase contenders have filled their score cards at the first two races in the 10-race Chase playoff. This weekend, time is up and they will have one race to secure their position in the next bracket, Round of 12 as the championship battle rages on.

The first cutoff race in the Chase is the 1-mile concrete over in Dover, Delaware. Nicknamed the ‘Monster Mile’ the track is known for its unique surface, challenging corners and high speeds. Team Chevy’s Jimmie Johnson is the Master of the Monster earning 10 victories at the concrete jungle, more than any other driver in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history. Johnson is in solid shape heading into the first cutoff race sitting 13 markers ahead of the 12th and final advancement spot.

Last weekend Kevin Harvick, pilot of the No. 4 Chevrolet SS punched his ticket into the Round of 12 with a victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Johnson, Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray, Austin Dillon and Tony Stewart all hope to do the same thing this weekend at Dover. The hoisting of the Miles the Monster trophy ensures a visit to the second round of the Chase playoff. McMurray and Dillon are only five points out of the 12th and final transfer spot. A solid finish could keep them in championship contention although neither has been able to tame the monster before. Three-time Sprint Cup Series champion Tony Stewart will all but need a win in order to keep his championship hopes alive in his final season as a full-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competitor. Stewart is a three time Dover winner.

Keeping a strong contingent of Chevy SS race cars in the hunt for the championship is the number one priority for Team Chevy this weekend at Dover, but the brand is also chasing a Milestone at the Monster Mile. Chevrolet has 38 wins at the 1-mile venue; two more victories will give Team Chevy 40 all-time wins at the track making Dover the seventh circuit on the Sprint Cup Series tour that the Bowtie Brigade has 40 victories, more than any other manufacturer.

The third race of the 10-race Chase playoff and the first elimination race in this year’s championship battle from Dover International Speedway is scheduled to begin Sunday, October 2 at 2 p.m. Live coverage of the 300-lap/317.4-mile contestwill be available on NBCSN, MRN, Sirius NASCAR Radio Channel 90 and NASCAR.com.

TEAM CHEVY FROM THE DRIVER’S SEAT:

KEVIN HARVICK, NO. 4 JIMMY JOHN’S CHEVROLET SS – 6TH IN STANDINGS
“Anyone can throw a ‘Hail Mary.’ I think there’s only a handful of drivers and teams that are capable of finishing those off. I would consider us one of those teams just for the fact that we’ve done it before. We did that last year at Dover. We did that the year before at Phoenix and Homestead. I think as a group we’ve been able to do things when we needed to do things and put days together when they really count. So, it’s something that I’m glad we have that experience, because there are those times when you have to put your back up against the wall and do things that most other people can’t do.”

JIMMIE JOHNSON, NO. 48 LOWE’S CHEVROLET SS – 8TH IN STANDINGS
“There is no doubt Dover is my favorite track. I wish we raced there every single weekend – it suits my driving style. I anticipate it to be a tough race since it’s a cutoff race, there will be guy driving their hearts out to stay in the Chase. This Lowe’s team is due for a win, I would love to get number 11 at Dover this weekend.”

CHASE ELLIOTT, NO. 24 MOUNTAIN DEW CHEVROLET SS – 9TH IN STANDINGS
“I feel like Dover is just another upcoming race and we need to do a better job.”

KURT BUSCH, NO. 41 MONSTER ENERGY/HAAS AUTOMATION CHEVROLET SS – 11TH IN STANDINGS
“Restarts are tough at Dover. You want to make sure you just get spread out and find that spot to protect your racecar and not run into anybody else’s mess. Pit road is tough there. It’s real small, it’s narrow and it’s slow, so it’s easy to speed. Mainly, you are just trying to stay away from any kind of trouble. I won the Chase race there in 2011. My car was just fast on corner exit. That is what you always hope to have – the ability to cut through that corner exit where the track rubbers in.”

KYLE LARSON, NO. 42 TARGET CHEVROLET SS – 12TH IN STANDINGS
“Dover has been a track where our Target team has had a lot of success, so it’s always great to go back to a track where you’ve had good finishes and solid cars. I think Dover suits my driving style and is a really fun, aggressive, physical place to race. The earlier race at Dover was sort of a turnaround for our team this season, with the runner up finish, and our Target Chevy has gotten faster since then. We’re excited to go back there for the cutoff race and will be working to run up front, run good and stay out of trouble as we look to advance to the next round of the Chase.”

JAMIE MCMURRAY, NO. 1 CREDIT ONE CHEVROLET SS – 13TH IN STANDINGS
“Last week’s finish was tough because we had a good car all day and ran around the top-10 most of the race. We just fell victim to pit sequence there at the end of the race and it cost us a few positions. The great news is that we have been unloading fast cars at the race track for the past several weeks that I expect that will be the same at Dover. Matt (McCall) and the guys have done a great job. We have our work cut-out for us this weekend and we are capable of getting it done.”

AUSTIN DILLON, NO. 3 AAA CHEVROLET SS – 14TH IN STANDINGS
“Actually, I’m excited to go to Dover International Speedway. I had a good run going there and we had a brake failure last time. We’ve changed brakes since then and it’s been really good since that point. I’m looking forward to getting back to Dover and proving what we can accomplish. It’s a tough track but I enjoy the challenge.”

KASEY KAHNE, NO. 5 PANASONIC CHEVROLET SS – 17TH IN STANDINGS
“Dover is a tough track. It’s probably one of the toughest tracks we go to, physically. My team has been bringing me fast cars to the track. I’m really enjoying driving this car again. It has been a lot of fun. Everyone has been doing a great job and putting a huge effort in.”

RYAN NEWMAN, NO. 31 WIX FILTERS CHEVROLET SS – 18TH IN STANDINGS
“For me, it’s racing as usual. I want to go out there and do the best job I possibly can for my sponsors. I want to go out there and have fun with it. My team wants to be the spoiler. We want to be the team they are talking about. Maybe we didn’t make the Chase but we finally won a race and proved we were a championship contender.”

AJ ALLMENDINGER, NO. 47 BUSH’S CHILI BEANS CHEVROLET SS – 20TH IN STANDINGS
“Last time at Dover International Speedway, we really had a good day going there. We ran inside the top 15. Basically, I thought we had ninth to 12th place speed the whole day and got caught up in a wreck. The finish doesn’t really show how well we ran. I was pleased with our performance and it’s a place that’s always been one of my favorite racetracks. We hadn’t ran well the previous couple of years. I love the track and I’m looking forward to going back.”

DANICA PATRICK, NO. 10 NATURE’S BAKERY CHEVROLET SS – 23rd IN STANDINGS
“It can be a real challenge. It’s quite quick and, when you come off turns two and four, it drops you down like a roller coaster. You just have to have a good setup and make sure everything is working right or it can be a long day. It’s actually a pretty long race, so you have to be prepared. But it’s a fun track and I’m looking forward to it.”

PAUL MENARD, NO. 27 DURACELL/MENARDS CHEVROLET SS – 25THIN STANDINGS
“Dover is a fun place to race. It has high banking which allows for high speeds. Things definitely happen fast there. It’s a track I really enjoy going to. I think we’ve seen the last couple of times there that the middle groove starts to come in about three-quarters of the way up the track. It’s a lot like it used to be. I look forward to progressing that groove a little bit higher when the top comes in, it makes for a heck of a race.”

CASEY MEARS, NO. 13 GEICO CHEVROLET SS – 29TH IN STANDINGS
“Dover is a fun track. Coming from an IndyCar background, it was a place where you are out of the throttle the least compared to a lot of the tracks you run in stock cars. I liked Dover right out of the gate. I like the sensation of speed and the way that you drive the cars there. It’s definitely difficult over the course of a long run. As tire rubber builds up on the track and changes it over time. Definitely you can run the bottom, middle, top. The track gives you a lot of options as a driver. It’s a fun track. I really enjoy it. When your car is bad there, it can be difficult but when you have a good car there it can be a lot of fun to race around Dover. Our GEICO Chevrolet SS team has worked hard on developing our Dover setup and I’m looking forward to getting the car on track this weekend.”

TY DILLON, NO. 95 DEATH WISH COFFEE CHEVROLET SS:
“What a great experience it has been for me this year. My main goal was to just log laps and learn as much as I could about these Cup cars. Experience is everything at this level because you are competing against guys that have been doing it for over 10 years. I think the biggest thing for me has been working with different teams and crew chiefs and understanding how they go about a race weekend. I understand how difficult it is to be successful in this series – you have to work at it. I can’t thank Circle Sport/Leavine Family Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Tommy Baldwin Racing enough for the opportunities. If anything, I’ve learned that I can compete at this level and I hope to do so in the near future.”

JEFF GORDON, INTERIM DRIVER, NO. 88 NATIONWIDE CHEVROLET SS:
“Alex (Bowman) has been doing a great job, and I’m just happy to do whatever I can to help the (No. 88) team. I’ve always loved Dover. It’s one of the tracks that I feel confident going to, so I’m looking forward to getting back in the car and working with Greg (Ives, crew chief) and the No. 88 team again this weekend.”

- Chevrolet

Kevin Harvick looking for another Dover Chase win; he's using winning 2015 chassis

Kevin Harvick is 5/1 favorite to win at Dover.

KANNAPOLIS, North Carolina (Sept. 28, 2016) – Kevin Harvick, driver of the No. 4 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet SS for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR), is heading to Dover (Del.) International Speedway for Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event as the most recent Sprint Cup race winner and the defending race winner.

Harvick locked himself into the Round of 12 in the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs with a late-race charge to win the Bad Boy Off Road 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon last Sunday. He started 19th and led the final six laps of the race to beat runner-up Matt Kenseth by .442 of a second to the finish line. It was his third win of the 2016 season and the 34th win in his Sprint Cup career.

In October 2015, Harvick came to Dover ranked 15th in points and trailing Dale Earnhardt Jr. by 23 points for the final transfer position into the Round of 12. A solid finish at the Monster Mile wouldn’t do – he needed a win to advance. With everything on the line, he delivered the most dominant race of his Sprint Cup career. He started 15th after rain cancelled qualifying Friday afternoon, but he quickly raced his way to the front and led 355 of 400 laps to beat runner-up Kyle Busch to the finish line by 2.639 seconds.

According to NASCAR Stats and Information, he registered a 149.7 driver rating out of a possible 150.0, narrowly missing his fourth perfect driver rating in a Sprint Cup race. He previously registered perfect 150.0 driver ratings at Phoenix International Raceway on three occasions – November 2006 and 2014, and March 2015.

The 2014 Sprint Cup champion has been fast at Dover since joining SHR at the beginning of 2014, scoring one win, one pole and two top-five finishes. What is more impressive is that he has led 810 of 2,005 laps in five races there – 40.4 percent of the total laps raced since the beginning of 2014.

However, luck has not always been on the side of the No. 4 team at Dover.

In June 2014, Harvick started eighth, led 24 laps, but finished 17th as the first car one lap down after he had a valve stem issue during a pit stop that caused a tire to go down on the following restart.

He won the pole at Dover in September 2014, when he turned a lap of 22.095 seconds at162.933 mph in the second round of qualifying. On race day, he stayed at the front of the field for 223 laps but had to settle for a 13th-place finish after another valve stem issue led to a flat tire following a pit stop and caused him to fall a lap down to the leaders.

Harvick started from the pole after qualifying was rained out in May 2016. He led 117 laps early in the race before he was caught in an 18-car accident and finished one lap down in 15th.

While Harvick is already locked into the Round of 12 in the Chase, he would still like to claim a second straight win and build momentum into the next round.

CHASSIS CHOICE:
Kevin Harvick will pilot the No. 4 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet SS built on Chassis No. 4-846 in the Citizen Soldier 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race Sunday at Dover (Del.) International Speedway. Built in 2014, Chassis No. 4-846 debuted at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway in March 2014. It scored its only win in October 2015 at Dover, where it started 15th and led 355 of 400 laps. Its most recent appearance came in March 2016 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, where it started second, led 142 laps and finished second. It also has four second-place finishes, seven top-five finishes and eight top-10s in 10 starts.

KEVIN HARVICK, Driver of the No. 4 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet SS for Stewart-Haas Racing:

Is it possible to throw a “Hail Mary” in this sport? Or have that last moment of desperation?
“Anyone can throw a ‘Hail Mary.’ I think there are only a handful of drivers and teams that are capable of finishing those off. I would consider us one of those teams just for the fact that we’ve done it before. We did that last year at Dover. We did that the year before at Phoenix and Homestead. I think as a group we’ve been able to do things when we needed to do things and put days together when they really count. So, I’m glad we have that experience because there are those times when you have to put your back up against the wall and do things most other people can’t do.”

Describe what it’s like to take a lap around Dover.
“Dover is the racetrack where you feel the sensation of speed more than anything. It’s a place where you drop off into the corner and slam into a lot of banking and then, as you come out of the corner, it’s kind of like jumping out of a hole and up onto the straightaway. It’s a really fun place to race. You feel that sensation of speed and you can be really aggressive.”

- True Speed Communications for Stewart-Haas Racing

Toyota Notes & Quotes heading to Dover

The five Gibbs drivers are 8/1 or less to win at Dover.

CHASE CUTOFF RACE: The Dover International Speedway NASCAR Sprint Cup Series (NSCS) race is the final event in the ‘Round of 16’ before the first cutoff in the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship and all five Camry drivers currently rank within the top-12. Mayetta, N.J. native Martin Truex Jr. will automatically advance to the second round with his win at Chicagoland Speedway two weeks ago, while Camry drivers Kyle Busch (third), Matt Kenseth (fourth), Denny Hamlin(seventh) and Carl Edwards (10th) will look for solid runs on Sunday to stay within the cutoff and advance to the ‘Round of 12’ beginning at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 8.

DELIVERING AT DOVER: Camry drivers have scored three NSCS victories at Dover, including two wins by Busch in June 2008 and May 2010 and most recently Kenseth visited victory lane at the ‘Monster Mile’ in May. Kenseth was also victorious in Delaware in 2006 and 2011 before joining Joe Gibbs Racing and Truex earned his first-career NSCS victory at the concrete track in 2007.

BYRON ADVANCES TO ‘ROUND OF 6’: Tundra driver William Byron was victorious at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the first-ever NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (NCWTS) Chase race last Saturday.

Byron led 161 laps (of 175) en route to his sixth victory of the 2016 season in his rookie campaign and automatically advances to the ‘Round of 6’ with his New Hampshire win. Byron is the third Tundra driver to win six or more races in a single NCWTS season, joining Kyle Busch (2009, 2010, 2011, 2014) and Matt Crafton (2015) having also won six or more Truck Series events in a year.

NOTES, QUOTES & NUMBERS

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series (NSCS): Camry drivers Martin Truex Jr. (second), Kyle Busch (third), Matt Kenseth (fourth), Denny Hamlin (seventh) and Carl Edwards (10th) rank in the top-16 in the unofficial point standings among drivers competing in the NSCS Chase for the Championship … Toyota currently leads the NSCS manufacturer point standings by 28 marks over Chevrolet with 1,156 points … Camry drivers have won 14 races this season, tying the most wins in a single season by the manufacturer … Toyota also won 14 races in 2013 and again in 2015.

KYLE BUSCH, No. 18 M&M’s Toyota Camry, Joe Gibbs Racing

How do you feel with a 33-point cushion heading into Dover International Speedway?
“We’ve seen that anything can happen in this business, but it’s certainly better than having a one-point cushion. There are pluses and minuses in this business, but anything can happen. We saw it with the 48 (Jimmie Johnson) last year – they had issues at Dover. We’ve had issues before and we’ve been able to make our way through, or we’ve been knocked out like in years prior. You just have to go and fight it out and try to keep track of that big picture and do what you need to do to move on to the next round with our M&M’S Camry after this weekend.”

CARL EDWARDS, No. 19 ARRIS SURFboard Toyota Camry, Joe Gibbs Racing

What is your mindset going into Dover with it being the first elimination race of the Chase?
“The first two races of this round haven’t gone quite as well as we had hoped, so unfortunately we need a pretty good finish. Fortunately, Dover is one of my favorite race tracks. It’s a place we’ve run very well at and had a great run in the spring. We head to Dover with our ARRIS Camry very confident in our ability to do what it takes to make it to the next round. It’s a really fast race track though and a lot can happen there. I respect how difficult that place could be. The spring race is a good example and a good lesson for us. We are focused and we know we can run well and we also know if you lose your focus for a split second that place can ruin your day. We are very optimistic going there, but we understand that we’ve really got to dig deep and we can’t make any mistakes. It should be fun. We’d love to put ARRIS in victory lane. If you win at Dover you feel like you have done something.”

MATT KENSETH, No. 20 DEWALT FLEXVOLT Toyota Camry, Joe Gibbs Racing

What is your confidence level going into Dover after having won there in the spring and your performance last week?
“I feel good. I feel like our performance is good. You never know what’s going to happen in these races. You never know where you’re going to finish, but certainly I feel like as a group our performance has been really, really strong all year. We’ve just got to execute and get the finishes, try to finish as good as we’re running. We were strong in Chicago. I thought we had a top‑five car and I made a mistake there and we got ourselves a little bit behind and finished ninth. I thought we had a solid second‑place car (at New Hampshire), and then they gave me a shot to win and I didn’t hang on for it, but they did a good job of putting me in position to win and came home second. I feel like our performance was good. We’ve just got to get the finishes every week.”

- Toyota

Easy to see why Dover is Jimmie Johnson's favorite track

Jimmie Johnson is 10/1 to win at Dover Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson on racing at Dover
“There is no doubt Dover is my favorite track. I wish we raced there every single weekend. It suits my driving style. I anticipate it to be a tough race since it’s a cutoff race and there will be guys driving their hearts out to stay in the Chase. This Lowe’s team is due for a win. I would love to get number 11 at Dover this weekend.”


Jimmie Johnson will be available to members of the media on Friday, Sept. 30, at 9:15 a.m. local time in the media center at Dover International Speedway.

CHASE STATUS: After an eighth-place result in New Hampshire, Jimmie Johnson is eighth in the point standings in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup heading into Dover, which is a cutoff event for the Round of 12. Performance-wise, Johnson can clinch on points with 29 points (12th and no laps led, 13th and led at least one lap, 14th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 24 points (17th and no laps led, 18th and led at least one lap, 19th and led most laps). With a win, Johnson would automatically clinch a spot in the next round.

MONSTER MEMORIES: Johnson won at Dover his first time at the track on June 2, 2002, in just his 16th start as a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver. He followed that up the same year by winning the fall event to sweep the season. Click here to see photos from Johnson’s first win at the "Monster Mile."

OVER 3,000 LAPS LED: Johnson has led 3,003 laps around Dover International Speedway in his career -- the most all-time of any driver at the track. The amount of laps led is almost double the amount of any other current full-time driver.

JOHNSON AND THE MONSTER: After his win in May 2015 at the one-mile concrete oval, Johnson has a total of 10 Sprint Cup wins at Dover International Speedway, which ranks first all-time ahead of NASCAR Hall of Famers Bobby Allison and Richard Petty, who recorded seven wins apiece.

SERIES-BEST DRIVER RATING: According to NASCAR’s loop data, Johnson has the series-best driver rating at Dover with a score of 118.1. He has spent 85.5 percent of all laps run in the top 15 and has an average finish of 8.2.

BLAZE AND THE MONSTER MACHINES: Johnson’s character “Dash” is back for two more episodes of Nickelodeon’s popular animated pre-school and STEM-based series "Blaze and the Monster Machines." Johnson's character Dash is a car that is fun, friendly, fast and the ultimate racing buddy for Blaze. The third special, titled “Wishing Wheel,” will be airing on Nick Jr. on Sept. 29 at 1:30 p.m. ET. The final episode in which Johnson appears is titled “The Hundred Mile Race” and it will air on Nick Jr. Nov. 4 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

JIMMIE JOHNSON WELLNESS VIRTUAL TRIATHLON: Being a part of TeamJJF means staying involved and being up-to-date with the Jimmie Johnson Foundation and its events not only by participating, but also by following through social media. The Jimmie Johnson Foundation is launching its first “virtual triathlon." Joining TeamJJF is a perfect way to support the Jimmie Johnson Foundation’s mission of assisting children, families and communities in need while taking on a personal athletic challenge. The Jimmie Johnson Foundation Virtual Triathlon takes place during the month of the month of October. The challenge is to swim 2.4 miles, bike 112 miles and run 26.2 miles. Learn more here.

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2016 Season 8th in standings 28 starts 2 wins 1 pole position 7 top-five finishes 11 top-10 finishes 384 laps led     Career 535 starts 77 wins 35 pole positions 214 top-five finishes 325 top-10 finishes 18,093 laps led     Track Career  29 starts 10 wins 3 pole positions 15 top-five finishes 20 top-10 finishes 3,003 laps led

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ODDS TO WIN 2016 CITIZEN SOLDIER 400 AT DOVER

Matt Kenseth is 7/1 to win Sunday at Dover.

WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK
ODDS TO WIN CITIZEN SOLDIER 400
DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2016 - 2:14 PM ET

Kevin HARVICK 5/1
Martin TRUEX JR 6/1
Matt KENSETH 7/1
Kyle LARSON 7/1
Kyle BUSCH 7/1
Denny HAMLIN 8/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 8/1
Carl EDWARDS 8/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Brad KESELOWSKI 15/1
Joey LOGANO 15/1
Kurt BUSCH 20/1
Kasey KAHNE 40/1
Jeff GORDON 60/1
Jamie McMURRAY 100/1
Austin DILLON 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Ryan BLANEY 80/1
Tony STEWART 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 200/1
Greg BIFFLE 200/1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 300/1
Paul MENARD 300/1
Trevor BAYNE 300/1
Chris BUESCHER 500/1
Clint BOWYER 500/1
Danica PATRICK 500/1
Aric ALMIROLA 1000/1
Casey MEARS 1000/1
FIELD 1000/1

Updated odds to win 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup heading into Dover

Kevin Harvick is 9/2 favorite to win Spint Cup

WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK
ODDS TO WIN 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP

Kevin HARVICK 9/2
Joey LOGANO 10/1
Kyle BUSCH 7/1

Jimmie JOHNSON 8/1
Brad KESELOWSKI 8/1
Matt KENSETH 10/1
Carl EDWARDS 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 10/1
Kurt BUSCH 20/1
Martin TRUEX JR 6/1
Kyle LARSON 12/1
Tony STEWART 80/1
Chase ELLIOTT 15/1
Jamie McMURRAY 100/1
Austin DILLON 200/1
Field (all others) 5000/1

Final New Hampshire Driver Ratings and Betting Notes

Kyle Larson is super-fast this weekend at New Hampshire.

Kyle Larson captured his first career Sprint Cup win four weeks ago at Michigan and the 24 year old from Elk Grove, CA looks like he wants another one based on his dominating practices at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He posted the fastest speeds in all three sessions and will start sixth in Sunday's New England 300.

Larson has shown speeds similar to his display this weekend ever since his rookie campaign, but the big difference now in the eyes of Las Vegas bookmakers is that he's got a win under his belt. He now has respect and it reflects in his odds where he used to be 20-to-1 weekly before the win, but is now 10-to-1 and seen as one of NASCAR's small group of elite drivers.

In the July 17 race at New Hampshire, Larson finished 17th, but showed during his rookie campaign of 2014 that if given a solid car he could produce great results. He was third in his first start there and runner-up in the fall. He's never had a car this fast at New Hampshire, though. His stellar practices on Friday and Saturday were his best of the season at any track.

He is the top candidate this week to derail the Joe Gibbs Racing express which has won the past three races on the schedule and 14 of 27 races this season. The last Chevrolet to win on the flat one-mile layout was nine races ago with Kasey Kahne in the summer of 2012.

RELEVANT DATA TO FOLLOW
In addition to looking at results from the July New Hampshire race when handicapping, you can also throw in to the mix what happened at Phoenix in March and also the two Richmond races. Although the three tracks are configured differently, they're all similar on the basis of being flat and almost the same distance. If a driver is good at one track, they'll likely be good on the other. Crew chiefs often use the same chassis at all three tracks during the season if having success.

JUST HOW GOOD IS GIBBS?
The Westgate SuperBook has all five of the Gibbs equipped cars at odds of 7-to-1 or less if that gives any insight to how good this team is. They've won the past three races on these type of tracks: Carl Edwards at Richmond in April, Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire and Denny Hamlin at Richmond two weeks ago. They've also won the past three races at New Hampshire: Kenseth won the last two and Kyle Busch won the summer race last year. Hamlin also won in 2012 and Kenseth in 2013 giving Gibbs a win in five of the past eight New Hampshire races. In the 10-consecutive lap category during Saturday's early practice, Martin Truex Jr. had the top time followed by three of his teammates. In the final session, Edwards was best. Gibbs is tied with Hendrick Motorsports for most wins (seven) all-time at New Hampshire.

FREAKY FAST CHASSIS
Harvick had the second fastest 10-consecutive lap average during the final practice session and is a driver to definitely consider just based on his chassis alone. All this chassis does is finish strong no matter what track it runs on. Seven of its nine career starts from 2015 and 2016 have been fourth or better, which includes runner-up three times and two Phoenix wins. Harvick was already listed as one of the favorites (6/1) on the basis of doing well on these type of tracks before the team press release came out on Thursday detailing the chassis dominance. His only New Hampshire win came in 2006 and he's finished fourth or better in three of his past four starts there. After finishing 20th last week at Chicago, he sits 13th in points after one Chase race. This chassis alone should give the team extreme confidence to capture at least a top-five finish.

Micah Roberts' Sprint Cup Driver Ratings
New England 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Sunday, September 25, 2016 - 11:16 am PT

RATING  DRIVER    ODDS                  PRACTICE 1        QUALIFIED .        PRACTICE 2          PRACTICE 3

 1. Carl Edwards 6/1                    4th               1st                6th                 4th

No wins (24 starts), but starts from pole and had fastest 10-consecutive lap average in practice 3.

 2. Kyle Larson 10/1                    1st                6th               1st                 1st

Finished third and second as a rookie in 2014; the kid is super fast and has tons of momentum. 

 3. Kevin Harvick 6/1                   3rd              19th               9th                 9th 

2016 winner, 13.4 average; using stout chassis that won at Phoenix in March past two seasons. 

 4. Kyle Busch 6/1                     10th              12th               8th                 8th

Two-time winner, the last coming in 2015; second or better in four of his last seven visits. 

 5. Matt Kenseth 6/1                  11th                8th               3rd                 7th

Three-time winner, including last two visits; second-best 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.

 6. Denny Hamlin 7/1                   7th                5th               4th                 2nd

Two-time winner, track-best 10.1 average finish. Currently on run of nine straight top-10 finishes. 

 7. Martin Truex Jr. 5/1                5th               2nd               2nd                 6th

No wins (21 starts), but in great form right now; fastest 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.

 8. Chase Elliott 12/1                   2nd              10th               5th                11th  

Poor finish (34th) in July, but his mid-summer slump is over after a third at Chicago last week. 

 9. Joey Logano 15/1                   13th             15th              14th               13th 

Two-time winner, inlcuding his first career Cup win in 2009; top-10s in last six on schedule.

10. Jimmie Johnson 10/1             16th               4th                7th                 5th

Three-time winner with 10.5 average finish in 29 starts. Hasn't won since March at Fontana.

Note: The flat 1-mile layout of New Hampshire requires a similar set-up to Phoenix and Richmond, which makes results from the previous four races between those tracks this season a great handicapping tool for Sunday. The first New Hampshire race of season was run on July 17.

Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1994. Follow on Twitter @MicahRoberts7


Final New Hampshire Driver Ratings - LVRJ

Final New Hampshire Betting Notes - LVRJ

Early New Hampshire Betting Preview - VegasInsider.com

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Track Facts: 2016 New England 300

Expect Gibbs to be very good this weekend.

Chase Fast Facts: New Hampshire

·         This is the sixth year in a row the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup second race has been held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2011 – 2016). New Hampshire was the first race of the Chase from 2004 – 2010.

·        

NHMS Chase Race Winners Winners Starting Position Season Matt Kenseth 13 2015 Joey Logano 7 2014 Matt Kenseth 9 2013 Denny Hamlin 32 2012 Tony Stewart 20 2011 Clint Bowyer 2 2010 Mark Martin 14 2009 Greg Biffle 9 2008 Clint Bowyer 1 2007 Kevin Harvick 1 2006 Ryan Newman 13 2005 Kurt Busch 7 2004

Eight tracks that have hosted Chase races all 11 previous years – Loudon, Charlotte, Dover, Homestead, Kansas, Martinsville, Phoenix, & Talladega

·         10 different drivers have won the New Hampshire Chase races, but only two have multiple wins – Clint Bowyer(two) and Matt Kenseth (two).   

·         When New Hampshire was the opening race of the Chase (2004 – 2010) only once the race winner went on to win the title (2004). 

o    In 2004 (inaugural Chase), Kurt Busch started seventh and won the opening race of the Chase at New Hampshire, and went on to win the title.

·         Since New Hampshire moved to the second race in the Chase (2011 – 2015) only one driver that has won the event went on to win the title – Tony Stewart (2011). Stewart won five races in the 2011 Chase (series-record) including the first two (Chicago, New Hampshire).

·         The worst finish in a Chase race at New Hampshire by a driver that went on to win the title was by Jimmie Johnson in 2006 when he finished 39th. Last season’s champion Kyle Busch finished 37th in New Hampshire’s Chase race -  the second worst finish by a driver at NHMS that went on to win the title.

·         No non-Chase driver has ever won the Chase race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

·         Eight drivers have won the pole for New Hampshire’s Chase races – Brad Keselowski (two), Ryan Newman(two), Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart(each have one).  

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2016 Top 16 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

	Driver	Races	Poles	Wins	Top Fives	Top 10s	DNFs	Average Finish	Driver Rating
1	Martin Truex Jr	21	0	0	3	7	1	14	88.6
2	Brad Keselowski	14	3	1	5	8	0	10.7	99.8
3	Kyle Busch	23	2	2	8	12	0	14.2	97.2
4	Denny Hamlin	21	0	2	8	13	0	10.2	103.3
5	Joey Logano	16	0	2	6	8	2	15.2	82.3
6	Chase Elliott	1	0	0	0	0	0	34	79.4
7	Matt Kenseth	33	0	3	9	18	1	12.3	90.3
8	Jimmie Johnson	29	1	3	10	19	1	10.6	100.8
9	Carl Edwards	24	2	0	3	7	0	13.5	87.6
10	Kurt Busch	31	0	3	7	12	1	16.2	89.6
11	Jamie McMurray	27	0	0	4	7	3	19.9	72.2
12	Tony Stewart	34	1	3	15	19	2	12.2	103.0
13	Austin Dillon	5	0	0	0	1	0	13.6	73.9
14	Kevin Harvick	31	1	1	8	16	0	13.5	96.7
15	Kyle Larson	5	0	0	2	2	0	14	82.0
16	Chris Buescher	1	0	0	0	0	0	29	45.0

* – Based on last 23 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2005 – 2016).

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data Season Race #: 28 of 36 (09-25-16) Track Size: 1.058-mile Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 2 to 7 degrees Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 2 to 7 degrees Banking/Frontstretch: 1 degree Banking/Backstretch: 1 degree Frontstretch Length:  1,500 feet Backstretch Length:  1,500 feet Race Length: 300 laps / 317.4 miles Top 10 Driver Rating at New Hampshire Jeff Gordon............................... 106.1 Denny Hamlin........................... 103.3 Tony Stewart............................ 103.0 Jimmie Johnson........................ 100.8 Brad Keselowski......................... 99.8 Dale Earnhardt Jr........................ 97.4 Kyle Busch................................. 97.2 Kevin Harvick.............................. 96.7 Ryan Newman............................ 90.5 Kasey Kahne.............................. 90.4 Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2016 races (23 total) among active drivers at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Qualifying/Race Data 2014 pole winner: Carl Edwards, Toyota 137.980 mph, 27.604 secs. 09-25-15 2014 race winner: Matt Kenseth, Toyota 106.480 mph, (02:58:51), 09-27-15 Track qualifying record: Brad Keselowski, Ford 140.598 mph, 27.090 secs. 09-21-14 Track race record: Jeff Burton, Ford 117.134 mph, (02:42:35), 07-13-97

New Hampshire Motor Speedway:

History

·         Groundbreaking for New Hampshire International Speedway, as New Hampshire Motor Speedway was originally named, was Aug. 13, 1989.

·         The 1.058-mile oval is located on approximately 1,200 acres; the multi-use complex is the largest sports facility in New England.

·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on July 11, 1993 – won by NASCAR Hall of Famer Rusty Wallace.

·         Speedway Motorsports, Inc. agreed to purchase New Hampshire International Speedway from Bob and Gary Bahre on January 11, 2008 and then renamed the track New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Starts

·         There have been 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; one per year from 1993 through 1996 and two per year since.

·         173 drivers have competed in at least one NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; 135 in more than one.

·         16 different drivers have made their first NSCS start at NHMS all-time, but only one of the 16 is an active championship contending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver: Joey Logano (9/14/08).

·         Ryan Newman leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average starting position at New Hampshire with a 9.862.

Poles

·         Mark Martin won the inaugural Coors Light pole at New Hampshire in 1993 with a speed of 126.871 mph. 

·         20 drivers have Coors Light poles at New Hampshire, led by Ryan Newman with seven.

·         Four active drivers have multiple poles at New Hampshire: Ryan Newman (seven), Jeff Gordon (four), Brad Keselowski (three) and Kyle Busch (two).

·         Five drivers have won consecutive Coors Light poles at New Hampshire: Ken Schrader (1997 sweep); Jeff Gordon (1998-1999); Rusty Wallace (1999-2000); Ryan Newman (twice – 2003-2004 and 2011 sweep); Juan Pablo Montoya (2009-2010).

·         Youngest New Hampshire Coors Light pole winner: Brian Vickers (07/17/2005 – 21 years, 8 months, 23 days).

·         Oldest New Hampshire Coors Light pole winner: Bill Elliott (07/21/2002 – 46 years, 9 months, 13 days).

·         Two drivers (all-time) have posted their first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Coors Light pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Brad Keselowski (09/19/10) and Patrick Carpentier (06/27/2008).       

Wins

·         24 different drivers have won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, led by Jeff Burton with four.

·         Eight active drivers have multiple wins at NHMS: Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart (each have three); Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano(each have two)

·         Three drivers have posted consecutive wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Jimmie Johnson (2003 sweep), Kurt Busch (2004 sweep) and Matt Kenseth (2015 fall, 2016 spring). 

·         Youngest New Hampshire winner: Joey Logano (06/28/2009 – 19 years, 1 month, 4 days).

·         Oldest New Hampshire winner: Mark Martin (09/20/2009 – 50 years, 8 months, 11 days).

·         Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing lead the series in wins at New Hampshire in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series with nine each; followed by Roush Fenway Racing (seven), Team Penske (six), andRichard Childress Racing (four).

·         Five different manufacturers have won at New Hampshire; led by Chevrolet with 18 victories; followed by Ford(13), Toyota (seven), Dodge (three) and Pontiac (two).

·         Jeff Burton is the only driver to win the July race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway three consecutive years in a row (1997, ’98 and ’99)

·         Five of the 43 (11.6%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from the Coors Light pole; the most recent was Ryan Newman in 2011.

·         The Coors Light pole is the most proficient starting position in the field, producing more winners (five) than any other starting position at New Hampshire.    

·         Eight of the 43 (18.6%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from the front row: five from the pole and three from second-place.

·         23 of the 43 (53.4%) NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire have been won from a top-10 starting position.

·         Nine of the 43 (20.9%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from a starting position outside the top 20.

·         The deepest in the field that a race winner has started at New Hampshire is 38th, by Jeff Burton in 1999.

·         The deepest in the field that an active race winner has started at New Hampshire is 32nd, by Kurt Busch in the summer of 2003.

·         Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears lead the series among active drivers with the most NASCAR Sprint Cup Series starts at New Hampshire without visiting Victory Lane at 27 each.

·         Five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers have posted their first career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway:Ryan Newman (09/15/02), Clint Bowyer (09/16/07), Joey Logano (06/28/09), Robby Gordon (11/23/01) andJoe Nemechek (09/19/99).

Additional Finishing Position Stats 

·         Tony Stewart leads the series in runner-up finishes at New Hampshire with six; followed by Jeff Gordon (five),Denny Hamlin (four), Kyle Busch and Mark Martin (with three each). 

·         Jeff Gordon leads the series in top-five finishes at New Hampshire with 16; followed by Tony Stewart with 15 and Jimmie Johnson with 10.   

·         Jeff Gordon leads the series in top-10 finishes at New Hampshire with 24; followed by Tony Stewart andJimmie Johnson with 19 each.

·         Jimmie Johnson leads NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average finishing position at New Hampshire with a 10.190.

·         All 14 active NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race winners at New Hampshire Motor Speedway participated in at least one or more races before visiting Victory Lane. Ryan Newman and Joey Logano won at New Hampshire in their second appearance.     

Track Specific Stats

·         Since the advent of electronic scoring the closest margin of victory (MOV) in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway was the July 1, 2007 race won by Denny Hamlin over Jeff Gordon with a MOV of 0.068 second.

·         17 of the 36 (47.2%) NSCS races scored by electronic scoring at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have had a Margin of Victory less than a second.

·         Four of the 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races have resulted with a green-white-checkered finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Scheduled No. of Laps/Actual No. of Laps): 2006 (300/308), 2013 (301/302), 2014 (301/302) and the Chase race 2014 (300/303).

·         Four of the 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have been shortened due to weather conditions; the most recent was June 28, 2009 – the race was called on Lap 273, 28 circuits shy of the 301 scheduled laps.   

Track Specific Stats

·        

NHMS Top Five Lap Leaders Active Drivers Laps Led Jeff Gordon 1,373 Tony Stewart 1,302 Ryan Newman 722 Kevin Harvick 698 Kyle Busch 689

Qualifying has been cancelled due to weather conditions in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway five times: fall 2001, summer 2003, fall 2004, fall 2008 and summer 2009.  

·         Jeff Gordon leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in laps led at New Hampshire with 1,373 laps led in 42 starts. 

·         Jeff Gordon leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in laps completed at New Hampshire with 12,267 laps completed in 42 starts. 

Female Competitor Stats

·         Danica Patrick is the only female driver that has competed in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. She posted her best finish at NHMS earlier this season (14th).

Date	Driver	Starting Position	Finishing Position	Driver Rating
7/17/2016	Danica Patrick	29	14	64.0
9/27/2015	Danica Patrick	22	40	64.7
7/19/2015	Danica Patrick	20	24	56.7
9/21/2014	Danica Patrick	18	19	79.7
7/13/2014	Danica Patrick	29	22	60.9
9/22/2013	Danica Patrick	21	27	57.1
7/14/2013	Danica Patrick	32	37	47.7
Averages		24.4	26.1	61.5

NASCAR in New Hampshire

·         There have been 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races in New Hampshire, all at NHMS.

Track Name	City	NSCS	NXS	NCWTS
New Hampshire Motor Speedway	Loudon	43	30	18

·         15 drivers that have made at least one start in a NASCAR national series have their home state recorded as New Hampshire; Jamie Aube is the only one of the 15 to record a victory in NASCAR national series competition. 

·         Aube won in the NASCAR XFINITY Series on July 12, 1987 at Oxford Plains Speedway in Oxford, ME; it was his only start that season.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Milestones
Drivers	Has	Needs	Milestones
Tony Stewart	49	1	Tie Ned Jarrett and Junior Johnson for 11th on all-time NSCS wins list
Kyle Busch	38	1	Tie Tim Flock for 18th on all-time NSCS wins list
Matt Kenseth	38	1	Tie Tim Flock for 18th on all-time NSCS wins list
Kevin Harvick	33	1	Break the tie with Fireball Roberts to become solely 22nd on all-time wins list
Kurt Busch	28	1	Tie Denny Hamlin for 25th on all-time NSCS wins list
Carl Edwards	27	1	Tie Rex White and Kurt Busch for 26th on all-time NSCS wins list
Jimmie Johnson	35	1	Tie Rusty Wallace and Rex White for 17th on all-time NSCS poles list
Kasey Kahne	27	1	Break the tie with Terry Labonte to become solely 25th on all-time NSCS poles list
Kevin Harvick	48	1	Break the tie with Lee Petty and become solely 10th on all-time NSCS second-place finishes list
Jimmie Johnson	324	1	Become the 13th driver in the NSCS to post 325 or more top-10 finishes
Tony Stewart	12,818	182	To become 11th NSCS driver all-time to lead 13,000 laps
Matt Kenseth	10872	128	To become 16th NSCS driver all-time to lead 11,000 laps
Kurt Busch	8,860	140	To become 20th NSCS driver all-time to lead 9,000 laps
Track Specific Milestones
Drivers	Has	Needs	Milestones
Kurt Busch	3	1	Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Jimmie Johnson	3	1	Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Ryan Newman	3	1	Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Matt Kenseth	3	1	Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Tony Stewart	3	1	Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Hendrick Motorsports	9	1	Break the tie with JGR and become solely the series leader in wins at NHMS
Joe Gibbs Racing	9	1	Break the tie with HMS and become solely the series leader in wins at NHMS
Brad Keselowski	3	1	Tie Jeff Gordon for the second-most series poles at New Hampshire