LVH Super Book posts Marcos Ambrose as favorite to win Cheez-It 355 at The Glen

Marcos Ambrose is the favorite to win Sunday at Watkins Glen

Jimmie Johnson has been favored in all three races since sweeping the Daytona season on July 6 for his fourth win of the season, but this week he takes a back seat on the oddsboard because he'll have to make left and right turns on the 2.45-mile, 11-turn road course at Watkins Glen. The LVH SuperBook has posted Marcos Ambrose as the favorite to win Sunday's Cheez-It 355 at The Glen, with Johnson in unfamiliar ground as fifth choice at 8-to-1.

Johnson, unlike nearly half the Sprint Cup regulars, is hardly a pushover on road courses. He won at Sonoma, NASCAR's other road course, in 2010 and finished third at Watkins Glen last season to tie his career best there. But Ambrose is on a completely different level when it comes the roads – and especially when the series comes to upstate New York.

Over the past five seasons, Ambrose has averaged a 2.0 finish at The Glen, his worst finish being third-place. He has rolled to wins the past two seasons at Watkins Glen. Based on the Australian's success there, it could be argued that 4-to-1 odds is generous. Those type of career numbers on single track over the same duration are unmatched by any driver on any track in the Sprint Cup series.

Kyle Busch, Juan Pablo Montoya and Kurt Busch are listed as the co-second choices at 7-to-1 odds. Kurt Busch won at Sonoma in 2010 and also finished fourth there in June, but it’s been a different story at The Glen. He managed to finish second in 2010, but over 12 career starts, that remains his only top-five finish on the track, and his averaged finish is 20.8.

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