Kansas NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 AdventHealth 400

NASCAR’s NextGen car has proved after 12 races that parity is thriving in the 2022 Cup season as its produced 10 different winners. Most of the races have been thrilling with lots of different lap leaders and choosing the winner after the first two stages aren’t as simple as it used to be.

Sunday’s AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway will be the third race of the season on a 1.5-mile layout, but only the second time using the standard NextGen package with engines producing 670 horsepower because the Atlanta race in late March used the superspeedway package.

The March 6 race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the best comparison we have to Kansas despite a bit steeper banking in Vegas. Perhaps we can throw in February’s Fontana race on the 2-mile layout as well, but let’s talk about the Vegas race that had 25 lead changes among 15 drivers. It may have been the best race I’ve ever seen there since its first Cup race in 1998 just because of the passing.

ADVENTHEALTH 400 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

The Pennzoil 400 went into overtime due to a late crash. Kyle Larson was leading and a hard-charging Alex Bowan was able to pass him for the win. Ross Chastain led the most laps (83) on the day and finished third. Kyle Busch led three times for 49 laps and finished fourth, and William Byron led eight laps and finished fifth. Larson would lead three times 27 laps and finish second. A week before, Larson won at Fontana which remains his only win of the season. Expect Larson to be rim-riding around the top of the Kansas layout again.

"At Fontana, we were able to run really close to the wall, so I would imagine it’s pretty easy to run next to the wall at Kansas,” Larson said. “I love Kansas – it’s definitely one of my favorite tracks. It does have multiple lanes, typically. If that top lane gets going really fast, it does make it hard to pass. I hope we can run the bottom, middle and top."

(Getty)

Larson won the last race run at Kansas in the fall leading a race-high 130 laps for his first win at Kansas and fourth top-five in 14 Cup starts. Between all the recent data we have of Kansas, Fontana, and Las Vegas, we’re looking at two wins and a runner-up which is of course the reason Caesars Sportsbooks have posted him as the 9-to-2 favorite to win.

We have all the data but it still doesn’t change the fact that this will be Larson’s first time at Kansas in the NextGen car as his crew chief Cliff Daniels explains.

"We had success there last year, but this weekend is another track we are visiting for the first time with the NextGen car so there is still a lot to learn,” Daniels said. “Kansas is just one of those tracks where you have to respect the track because it can draw you into thinking it’s pretty straightforward, but the lanes can change a lot throughout the race. Everybody thinks you can run up top, then everybody does and it’ll fall off, so you have to be good enough to move down the track. And right as you think the strategy will be simple, a caution will come out and change everything you’re doing. You really have to be on your game in the moment and respect the track and the race. Past success always gives you confidence, but it’s still the new car at a track we haven’t competed on with it yet."

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Roberts: Phoenix NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500K

The fourth race of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series takes us to the 1-mile flat layout of Phoenix Raceway for Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500K which gives us another chapter to review with the NextGen car. 

I keep adapting week-to-week with the new car, but there’s no doubt I like it a bunch. Sure, more drivers have a legitimate shot to win and the elites are less likely to dominate a race as we saw with the last car from 2013 through 2021. I’m seeing drivers experiment more trying to find speed and gain some momentum on turns, while also still looking like they don’t fully trust the new cars yet.

We’ve seen the car perform on a 2.5-mile superspeedway, a wide 2-mile layout, and a 1.5-mile cookie-cutter, and each provided thrilling finishes with several cars dominating at differing stages of the race. 

RUOFF MORTGAGE 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

When we are talking about Tyler Reddick and a Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet as a possible winner, we’ve moved into a fun era of NASCAR. When a team like Trackhouse Racing can start a team, buy Chip Ganassi Racing, and then get immediate results with the new car with both their drivers, we’ve entered a new NASCAR.  

For the first time I can ever remember, anyone can really win a NASCAR race, or at least up to 28 drivers. I’m finding that the car is so equal for all teams that I’m treating my pre-race betting activities like a superspeedway race which means betting only half my regular bankroll and not messing around with props. All my bets are odds to win so far, with up to seven drivers selected.

The practices haven’t given me anything yet that has helped me in the past and if anyone can win the race, why not bet some of those drivers 20-to-1 or higher. Last week I had a whole bunch of those guys and they all gave me thrills until the end when I begged for a caution to get my guys back in it, and sure enough, the late caution came out, and then I won with Alex Bowman at 20-to-1 odds.   

Ross Chastain led the most laps at Las Vegas, Reddick led the most laps at Fontana, and rookie Austin Cindric won the Daytona 500. The new blood in the sport isn’t as bleak as I thought.

Let’s go over some parity notes through the first three races starting with 24 different drivers to score a top-10 finish and one of those drivers isn’t veteran Denny Hamlin. Three races, three different winners, and also three different pole winners. There have been 25 different lap leaders and an average of 30 lead changes per race.

RUOFF MORTGAGE 500 BETTING ANALYSIS

So, yes, anyone can win a race this season and I’m betting accordingly until a team figures out some tricks or secrets to making the NextGen car go faster.

My starting point with Phoenix are with the drivers that have traditionally done well at Phoenix, but also those who have performed well on flat tracks over their career. I’ve grouped the following drivers into this category: Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, Aric Almirola, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano.

Let’s start with Mr. Phoenix Kevin Harvick who has been racing in all NASCAR Series at Phoenix since 1994. He knows the track well and has a track record of nine wins in the Cup Series, one 2006 Xfinity Series win, and four Truck Series wins. 

Harvick also owns track records at Phoenix with 18 top-fives, 27 top-10s, and 1,663 laps led. Perhaps the most astonishing record he has is finishing ninth or better in his last 17 Phoenix starts. Five of his came after signing with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014 but he doesn’t have any wins since the 2018 spring race and then the track was reconfigured and Harvick has no wins in his last seven there. Harvick disputes the correlation.

Kevin Harvick has seen 27 Top 10 results in Avondale. (AP)

 “When they moved the start-finish line, there was nothing really different, other than the restart,” Harvick said. “The restarts have become much more exciting because of the fact that you can use the apron and everything that happens going into what is now turn one. So, the restarts are the biggest difference since they moved the start-finish line. 

“This configuration of racetrack is much different than what we had in the late ’90s, early 2000s,” he continued. “That track used to be very low on grip, and this one’s become lower on grip and now, with the resin that they add on the racetrack, you have to kind of adapt just because of the fact that you never know what the grip level is going to be. The resin and the start-finish line have added a couple of different elements to it that we didn’t have in the past.”  

What I’ve seen out of the SHR cars already feels like an improvement over the 2021 cars with teammate Almirola being the only driver with three top-10s. It’s the new car mixed in with the skill of Harvick at his best track (8.8 average finish) that made me run to the bet window to grab 18-to-1 odds when I saw it. I didn’t even check around for better numbers as I normally do, I just grabbed as if it was going to move any second.

RUOFF MORTGAGE 500 BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, March 13, 2022
• TV-Time: FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Phoenix Raceway
• Location: Avondale, Arizona
• Distance: 312 miles
• Laps: 312

Almirola is being offered at 25-to-1 odds and I took some of that as well. Since moving the SHR in 2018, seven of his eight Phoenix starts have finished 13th or better with two fourth-place finishes as his career-best over that span. What’s the driving force of being the only team with three top-10s to start the season?

“We fight,” Almirola said. “That’s the beauty of this race team. We’re still learning this car. There’s a lot to learn about it and we’re still trying to figure a lot of things out. Practice is great, but we’ve got to make adjustments throughout the race and I feel like every race we’re learning more and more and we’re building a notebook. We’re making adjustments throughout the race and trying to figure it out. This team has so much fight in it and so much grit that it’s a lot of fun to race with these guys. We’ll keep digging and try and keep this streak alive. It’s a lot of fun when you run up front.”

This is Almirola’s last season and he comes off a 2021 season as the only SHR driver to win a race. By the way, he won at New Hampshire’s 1-mile flat paperclip layout last season which is one o...................

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