Kansas NASCAR Betting Preview: 2021 Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas

 NASCAR BUSCHY MCBUSCH RACE 400 ANALYSIS

The NASCAR Cup Series has produced nine different winners in its first 10 races duplicating a feat that has been done only three other times in the modern era of NASCAR (1972 - present).

It’s parity galore for NASCAR 2021 with all three manufacturers having at least three wins as the series rolls into Kansas Speedway’s 1.5-mile layout for Sunday’s Buschy McBusch Race 400.

Yes, that’s a real sponsor name created by fans of Busch beer.

BUSCHY MCBUSCH RACE 400 BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, May 2, 2021
• TV-Time: FS1, 3:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kansas Speedway
• Location: Kansas City, Kansas
• Distance: 400.5 miles, 267 laps
• Defending Champion: Joey Logano (Oct. 18, 2020)

A few things we have to understand before lining your Kansas betting portfolio with wagers.

This is the fourth race of the season on a 1.5-mile track and also the fourth non-superspeedway race using the race package with engines producing 550 horsepower.

Hendrick Motorsports won the first two with William Byron at Homestead and Kyle Larson at Las Vegas while Team Penske won at Atlanta with Ryan Blaney.

BUSCHY MCBUSCH RACE 400 ODDS ANALYSIS

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted Larson as the 5/1 co-favorite to win in part because he’s been the best driver using this week’s race package -- three top-fives, led laps in all three, and led the most laps in two of them.

Martin Truex Jr. is a two-time Kansas winner and is also a co-favorite, but it’s more about being the only driver to have multiple wins this season.

However, both those wins came using the 750 HP package at Phoenix and Martinsville. His only top-five in the 550 HP on a 1.5 this season was at Homestead where he finished third and led 17 laps. He was sixth at Las Vegas and ninth at Atlanta.

Denny Hamlin is the third and final 5/1 co-favorite based on winning two of the last three Kansas races and three overall. He’s also had top-fives on two of the three 1.5s while also leading laps. Eight top-fives in 10 starts overall this season and still no wins after winning seven times last season.

BUSCHY MCBUSCH RACE 400 CONTENDERS

• Denny Hamlin +550
• Kyle Larson +600
• Martin Truex Jr. +700
• Brad Keselowski +850
• Chase Elliott +900
• Kevin Harvick +900
• Joey Logano +900
• More NASCAR Futures
• (Odds Subject to Change)

Joey Logano captured last year's playoff race at Kansas and he's expected to be in the mix again on Sunday. (AP)

HANDICAPPING NASCAR AT KANSAS

Of the three co-favorites, there’s no question in my mind Larson deserves to be the lone favorite and initial focal point because of his work on 1.5s this season and he says one of those tracks they already ran at is closest to how Kansas runs.

“I’m excited to get to Kansas,” Larson said. “It’s a track I’ve run well at in the past. It seems I’ve always had speed there. Our Hendrick Motorsports Chevys have had really good speed on the mile-and-halfs this year, so that makes me even more excited to get there. Kansas is the track that I feel is the most similar to Las Vegas where we won earlier this year.”

BUYING JGR ON SUNDAY

I have a bet on Larson to win, but he won’t be the driver that I’ll make the most money on. I’ll fare the best with Joe Gibbs Racing driver Christopher Bell who is set at 30/1 odds in his No. 20, and then two other Hendrick drivers with Alex Bowman and William Byron both at 20/1 odds.

“All 1.5-mile tracks are definitely not the same,” warned William Byron about blindly labeling all 1.5s the same. “Kansas is probably the most similar to Las Vegas but, even in that aspect, Kansas has less grip. It’s a very temperature-sensitive racetrack. You have to be able to run the bottom effectively but then be able to run the top lane just as strong the longer the race goes along. I think we were good in both races last year, but I think the June race was the best shot we have had at winning there. I’m excited to get back and see what we can do this time.”

Byron has finished 10th or better in his last three Kansas races with a best of fifth-place in the fall of 2019 and he’s also led laps in his last four starts there. The No. 24 driven by Jeff Gordon won the first two Kansas races in 2001 and 2002 and won again in 2012.

READ MORE HERE.....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM

Talladega Practice Notes: Not Much Gained From Practices, Daytona Good Barometer

Kevin Harvick battles Tony Stewart during Sprint Unlmited win

Unlike most of the tracks on tour, practices at Talladega Speedway mean very little, and therefore don’t give any hint as to who might win Sunday’s Aaron’s 499. The drivers ran two sessions on Friday, the last of which only 27 drivers participated in, which gives a clear indication on how important they find the practices.

What was learned at Daytona during speed weeks and the Daytona preseason testing still applies this week at Talladega. Because the track is wider with plenty of room, we may have the possibility of seeing more competitive racing. The drivers should feel more comfortable bump drafting here because there is so much room compared to the tighter Daytona.

There shouldn’t be much adjusting to a bettors plan that was formulated before practices. The only thing to add into any equation might be starting position, which was set based on the first practice session because qualifying was rained out Saturday.

The Daytona 500 starting position proved to be vital for most of the race with what appeared to be little passing. Drivers played follow the leader for the most part. If this true again Sunday, someone like Carl Edwards (starting first) and Joey Logano (fourth) starting near the front have a great shot to grab their first restrictor-plate wins.

Kevin Harvick tops our list this week just because of how well he maneuvered while winning the Budweiser Duel and Sprint Unlimited at Daytona. In the 500, he was involved in a nine-car wreck on lap 34 that ended his day prematurely. Between his past success at Talladega and Richard Childress claiming a track record 12 career wins as an owner, Harvick is a slight notch above the top-6, who are all rated very close.

Betting propositions or matchups in plate races are not advised. The nature of the track is too volatile, which takes away any edge that may have be found within the numbers based on practices and track tendencies. This race is really a crap shoot where up to 35 drivers have a legitimate shot at winning. The best advice is weight wagers between three or four drivers from an assortment of drivers up to 30-to-1. It really is like throwing darts, but this race is always too much fun to not have action on something.

Read More Here..........Top-10 Driver Ratings

How About Trevor Bayne to Win at Talladega with 60/1 Odds?

Trevor Bayne paid out 100-to-1 odds with Daytona 500 win in 2011 (Getty)

For most of the 62 years that the Wood Brothers have been competing in NASCAR, races truly were a test of man and machine.

Often in the early days, components would fail and cars wouldn’t finish races. It was an accomplishment just to be running at the end of a 500-mile grind.

In recent years, the cars have become almost indestructible from a mechanical standpoint, but Donnie Wingo, the crew chief of the No. 21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane Ford Fusion, said this weekend’s Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway could become a real test of engines.

The NASCAR rules implemented to limit two-car tandem racing have made overheating a big concern. Heat was on Wingo’s mind back at Daytona in February and even more so this week.

“At Daytona, it was cool and at night,” Wingo said. “We’ve got the same package at Talladega, and the temperature is going to be in the low 90s.” Wingo said that even though he doesn’t expect any heat-building tandem racing until the closing laps, he believes that even running in the pack could make temperatures rise.

“You’re going to really have to take care of the car and the motor,” he said. “The heat is going to be an unknown for all of us.”

Wingo’s far more upbeat about the car he’s taking to Talladega. It’s the same Fusion the team ran in the Daytona 500. It was fast there, but driver Trevor Bayne was involved in a Lap 2 crash, ending any hopes the team had of repeating as Daytona 500 winners.

“It’s all fixed up,” Wingo said. “I feel really good about it.”

For Bayne, having fast cars at Daytona and Talladega has become almost a given.

“The Wood Brothers always have fast cars at the superspeedways,” he said. “I just have to make sure that we make it to the end. Having a fast car is half of the battle.”

But the first step for Bayne and the Wood Brothers team is securing a starting spot for Sunday. Because they run a limited schedule, the Woods are not among the top 35 in car owner points and therefore not assured of a starting berth.

But Wingo said he believes that’s one hurdle the team should clear.

“I’m pretty confident,” he said. “Barring any unforeseen issue, we should be fine.”

Qualifying for the Aaron’s 499 is set for Saturday at 11:10 a.m. (12:10 Eastern Time), and the race is scheduled to get the green flag at noon (1 p.m. Eastern) on Sunday with TV coverage on FOX.

- Wood Brothers Racing