Showing posts with label citizen soldier 400. Show all posts
Showing posts with label citizen soldier 400. Show all posts

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Final Dover Driver Ratings: 2016 Citizen Soldier 400

Jeff Gordon paced Junior's car with the fastest lap in Saturday's final practice at Dover. 
Micah Roberts' Sprint Cup Driver Ratings
Citizen Soldier 400
Dover International Speedway
Sunday, October 2, 2016 - 11:14 am PT

RATING  DRIVER    ODDS                   PRACTICE 1         START POS.*          PRACTICE 2          DOVER '16**
 1. Kevin Harvick 5/1                   20th                6th                  8th                15th
Won last fall, his first at the track in 30 starts (14,2 avg.); he's using that same chassis this week.
 2. Chase Elliott 10/1                   6th                 9th                14th                  3rd
Hendrick cars look fast, his looks the best. Second-best 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.
 3. Kyle Larson 7/1                      1st                12th                 7th                  2nd
In five career Cup starts he's averaged a 6.2 finish, his best anywhere. Led 85 laps in May race.
 4. Matt Kenseth 7/1                    3rd                 4th                12th                  1st
Three-time winner with a 13th-place average finish in 35 starts. Led final 46 laps in May race.
 5. Jimmie Johnson 8/1                5th                 8th                19th                 25th
All-time best at Dover with 10 wins and 3,003 laps led in 29 starts. Last won there in 2015 spring.
 6. Brad Keselowski 15/1            19th                 1st               22nd                  6th
2012 win helped propel him to Sprint Cup title. Pole winner has won 13 of 93 races at Dover.
 7. Kyle Busch 7/1                      28th                3rd                18th                 30th
Two-time winner and runner-up last fall. Best 10-consecutive lap average during Practice 1.
 8. Carl Edwards 8/1                    2nd               10th                 9th                  28th
2007 winner, but no top-10s in last seven visits. Tied for ninth in points, 16-points in front of 13th.
 9. Martin Truex Jr. 6/1                10th                2nd                28th                  9th
Notched first career Cup win at Dover in 2007, a track the New Jersey native call his home track.
10. Jeff Gordon 60/1                    17th               18th                 1st                  DNP
Five wins in 46 starts, the last coming in fall of 2014. His best car since replacing Earnhardt Jr.

* Qualifying cancelled due to rain. Starting lineup set by owner points

** Results from the May 15, 2016 race at Dover which featured 19 lead changes among 10 drivers.

Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1994. Follow on Twitter @MicahRoberts7

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Dover Betting Preview: 2016 Citizen Soldier 400

Dover's concrete layout always a challenge. 
Wave goodbye to four drivers this week.

We've got two races down in NASCAR's 10-race playoff format and at the conclusion of Sunday's Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway we'll see four of the 16 Chase drivers eliminated. Two drivers, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, have automatically for next round of three races by virtue of winning the last two weeks at Chicago and New Hampshire.

The four drivers sitting 12 through 16 in the Chase standings that are in danger of being eliminated from championship contention and the four that most experts believed would be on the chopping block first. Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray are 5-points behind 12th-placeKyle Larson. Tony Stewart is 6-points behind and Chris Buescher, the Cinderella of the bunch, is 25-points back.

In the May 15 race at Dover, Buescher had the best finish among the four with 18th-place. McMurray was 21st, Dillon 33rd and followed by Stewart in 34th. This will be Stewart's last visit to Dover, a place he has won three times at over his career, the last time in 2013 which was his last win before winning at Sonoma in June.

Because Dover's 1-mile, high banked concrete oval is so unique and there is only one race of data to apply, to handicap every angle possible I like to refer to race run at Bristol, which is a half-mile shorter, but it is high-banked and concrete. I got the idea about a decade ago when I started seeing crew chiefs refer to it when discussing Dover and sometimes bring the exact same chassis to each track. If it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me, and there have been some strong correlations with results over the years.

It was just over a month ago that the series was at Bristol. Harvick would win the race, but some of the top finishers were surprises, such as Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finishing second, Dillon fourth with Buescher in fifth and McMurray in eighth. That's a wild group that no one could have possibly predicted, but it gives reason to believe that Larson might not be so safe with his five-point lead.

However, Larson has a 6.2 average finish in five Dover starts, including runner-up behind Matt Kenseth in May where he led 85 laps. Harvick, who won this race last year -- his first ever at Dover, finished 15th but led a race-high 117 laps. The May race featured 19 lead changes among 10 drivers and had 12 cautions which kept things competitive with lots of restarts.

Before we get into to will win Sunday, let's take a look at the updated Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook odds to win the Sprint Cup.

Odds to win 2016 Sprint Cup (11/20/16)

Kevin Harvick 9/2
Joey Logano 10/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 6/1
Kyle Larson 12/1
Tony Stewart 80/1
Chase Elliott 15/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Austin Dillon 200/1
Field (all others) 5000/1

Read More Here.....Dover Top-5 Finish Prediction on VegasInsider.com

Kevin Harvick looking for another Dover Chase win; he's using winning 2015 chassis

Kevin Harvick is 5/1 favorite to win at Dover.
KANNAPOLIS, North Carolina (Sept. 28, 2016) – Kevin Harvick, driver of the No. 4 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet SS for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR), is heading to Dover (Del.) International Speedway for Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event as the most recent Sprint Cup race winner and the defending race winner.

Harvick locked himself into the Round of 12 in the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs with a late-race charge to win the Bad Boy Off Road 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon last Sunday. He started 19th and led the final six laps of the race to beat runner-up Matt Kenseth by .442 of a second to the finish line. It was his third win of the 2016 season and the 34th win in his Sprint Cup career.

In October 2015, Harvick came to Dover ranked 15th in points and trailing Dale Earnhardt Jr. by 23 points for the final transfer position into the Round of 12. A solid finish at the Monster Mile wouldn’t do – he needed a win to advance. With everything on the line, he delivered the most dominant race of his Sprint Cup career. He started 15th after rain cancelled qualifying Friday afternoon, but he quickly raced his way to the front and led 355 of 400 laps to beat runner-up Kyle Busch to the finish line by 2.639 seconds.

According to NASCAR Stats and Information, he registered a 149.7 driver rating out of a possible 150.0, narrowly missing his fourth perfect driver rating in a Sprint Cup race. He previously registered perfect 150.0 driver ratings at Phoenix International Raceway on three occasions – November 2006 and 2014, and March 2015.

The 2014 Sprint Cup champion has been fast at Dover since joining SHR at the beginning of 2014, scoring one win, one pole and two top-five finishes. What is more impressive is that he has led 810 of 2,005 laps in five races there – 40.4 percent of the total laps raced since the beginning of 2014.

However, luck has not always been on the side of the No. 4 team at Dover.

In June 2014, Harvick started eighth, led 24 laps, but finished 17th as the first car one lap down after he had a valve stem issue during a pit stop that caused a tire to go down on the following restart.

He won the pole at Dover in September 2014, when he turned a lap of 22.095 seconds at162.933 mph in the second round of qualifying. On race day, he stayed at the front of the field for 223 laps but had to settle for a 13th-place finish after another valve stem issue led to a flat tire following a pit stop and caused him to fall a lap down to the leaders.

Harvick started from the pole after qualifying was rained out in May 2016. He led 117 laps early in the race before he was caught in an 18-car accident and finished one lap down in 15th.

While Harvick is already locked into the Round of 12 in the Chase, he would still like to claim a second straight win and build momentum into the next round.

CHASSIS CHOICE:
Kevin Harvick will pilot the No. 4 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet SS built on Chassis No. 4-846 in the Citizen Soldier 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race Sunday at Dover (Del.) International Speedway. Built in 2014, Chassis No. 4-846 debuted at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway in March 2014. It scored its only win in October 2015 at Dover, where it started 15th and led 355 of 400 laps. Its most recent appearance came in March 2016 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, where it started second, led 142 laps and finished second. It also has four second-place finishes, seven top-five finishes and eight top-10s in 10 starts.

KEVIN HARVICK, Driver of the No. 4 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet SS for Stewart-Haas Racing:

Is it possible to throw a “Hail Mary” in this sport? Or have that last moment of desperation?

“Anyone can throw a ‘Hail Mary.’ I think there are only a handful of drivers and teams that are capable of finishing those off. I would consider us one of those teams just for the fact that we’ve done it before. We did that last year at Dover. We did that the year before at Phoenix and Homestead. I think as a group we’ve been able to do things when we needed to do things and put days together when they really count. So, I’m glad we have that experience because there are those times when you have to put your back up against the wall and do things most other people can’t do.”

Describe what it’s like to take a lap around Dover.

“Dover is the racetrack where you feel the sensation of speed more than anything. It’s a place where you drop off into the corner and slam into a lot of banking and then, as you come out of the corner, it’s kind of like jumping out of a hole and up onto the straightaway. It’s a really fun place to race. You feel that sensation of speed and you can be really aggressive.”

- True Speed Communications for Stewart-Haas Racing