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Wednesday, February 23, 2022
Caesars has Kyle Larson +250 favorite to win at Fontana
NASCAR Fontana Betting Preview: 2022 WISE Power 400 by Micah Roberts
My dear friend Fontana, I had this weird dream after the last time I saw you the world shut down, everyone was unkind to each other, and hundreds of thousands died from a pandemic. It was absolutely horrible, but I’m glad I woke up and glad to be back. Wait, I’m awake and it’s been two years?
It was March 1, 2020, Alex Bowman led a race-high 110 laps to win his second career Cup race. And then Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert caught COVID-19, the NBA shut down, the NCAA Basketball Tournament was canceled, and NASCAR followed suit.
That was one lonely March and April I’ll never forget. The unknown of the virus constantly occupied my mind and then it felt exasperated more by not having sports to follow. But then NASCAR set a May 17 date at Darlington for a return to action, the first sports back on network TV. They raced on May 20th also at Darlington. Midweek racing didn’t catch on as I hoped, but I loved it.
WISE POWER 400 PICKS & PREDICTIONS
Back to the future, so let’s get this California re-boot started with momentum coming off a strong Daytona 500 audience and the possibility of also welcoming new NASCAR fans found at the L.A. Coliseum for the Busch Light Clash won by Joey Logano the week before the Super Bowl played in Inglewood.
NASCAR is on a roll to start the 2022 season and I think Sunday’s NASCAR WISE Power 400 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA can bring it just as strong because it's a wide sweeping two-mile D-shaped oval offering multiple grooves for the drivers. Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick will likely rim ride at the top while Kyle Busch will stick with whatever groove his car likes.
The performance of the NextGen car for varying teams will be a learning experience for me, but I’ll look for the positives in all garages.
I think how Brad Keselowski runs this week off a solid superspeedway week at Daytona will be a major glimpse at what we’ll see for the series moving forward. He’s the perfect in between specimen to observe. He’s 40-to-1 to win at a track he won at in 2015 with a quality Team Penske ride. He’s now with a Roush team that hasn’t been stellar at Fontana since Matt Kenseth won in 2009.
How he does this week gives hope and insight for all the non-elite teams with the NextGen car? It’s got 670 horsepower and has the appearance of being all-equal, but I have it stuck in my head that Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are the elites, Penske isn’t far behind, and then it’s everyone else. At least that’s the way it always seemed to be. But if it’s not the case this time around, Keselowski will shed light this weekend.
Keselowski says he’s glad to be back at Fontana.
“Fontana starts a long stretch of racing on the West Coast, but we’re excited for it and glad to have momentum as a company coming off Speedweeks,” Keselowski said. “Despite we have not been to Auto Club in a couple of years, it is a track I have been fortunate to be strong at the last few outings. We’re looking forward to getting things going in the Violet Defense Ford come Saturday, and are excited for the weekend.”
Keselowski is 40-to-1 to win at Caesars sportsbooks and he wasn’t kidding about his recent success on the 2-mile layout. After his win in 2015, he was ninth, runner-up, fourth, third, and fifth. He obviously loves the track’s worn-out surface or has an instinctive edge on how to manage it that some others don’t have.
But you still have to have the car.
And this is where it gets difficult when betting this week. I feel like I’m walking on eggshells when discussing stuff I don’t fully know the answers to. I’m reluctant to bet as normal on just a hunch that Hendrick or JGR will be the best equipped to start the season on non-superspeedways. I have to trust the driver’s past history the most with a boost of confidence if those Fontana-friendly drivers also drive for HMS or JGR.
WISE POWER 400 BETTING ANALYSIS
All this is spinning in my head as common sense responds with the fact that Ford won the Clash at the Coliseum, both Daytona Duels, and the Daytona 500. Ford is a big 4-0. They had an aerodynamic edge with the Ford bumpers connecting better in the draft. The Austin Cindric-Ryan Blaney teamwork was spectacular.
Caesars has Penske drivers Joey Logano at 14-to-1, Ryan Blaney at 10-to-1, and the rookie Cindric at 50-to-1. When I saw those odds on Cindric my immediate feeling was to not let that price slip away again. I bet Blaney and Logano aggressively last week and left the other teammate out of the mix. Maybe a super small wager on Cindric just so I don’t feel left out like last week when I had second, third, and fourth place locked up with wagers.
As for Stewart-Haas Racing Fords, I don’t feel confident in them after the complete collapse last season when only one driver won a race and it was Aric Almirola and not Kevin Harvick who won a series-leading nine races in 2020. In 27 Cup starts at Fontana, Harvick has a 2007 win. But Harvick says it's all new this week with the NextGen cars.
“For sure, because you just don’t know,” he said. “It’s always tire management, it’s always moving around the racetrack – being able to run the top and the bottom – but this car is so different in the way that it uses the tires, and the way it uses the right-rear tire, especially. I think as you look at that, it could turn into a tire conservation type of situation to where just have to pick a speed and run the speed so you can make it through a whole fuel run. You just don’t know those things until you go do it, so being able to adapt and adjust is going to be important.”
Yes, he sounds like me at the bet window this week.
Harvick is 12-to-1 to win at Caesars because, because……well, I don’t know. Is it because he’s from Bakersfield just northwest of Fontana?
That Harvick number doesn’t make sense, but no one knows with this new car at Fontana’s abrasive surface. Maybe practice on Saturday will show he’s a contender.
WISE POWER 400 BETTING RESOURCES
- Date: Sunday, February 27, 2022
- TV-Time: FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Auto Club Speedway
- Location: Fontana, California
- Distance: 400 miles
- Laps: 200
The first bet I made this week was Bowman at 15-to-1 odds just because he loves the track, he’s from HMS, and he’s the most recent winner at Fontana.
“I’m excited to get back to Fontana,” Bowman said. “I feel like we had the best car we have had ever when we raced there in 2020. I love the track and how big it is, so going back with a win in my last appearance and a lot of good thoughts gives me a lot of confidence. Obviously, the car is different so we can’t lean too much on our notes from last time, but I know our team will put together a great car for this year’s event.”
His sentiment is encouraging, I feel a confidence boost about my bet.
WISE POWER 400 CONTENDERS
Kyle Larson is the deserving +250 to win Sunday, but is he really since we haven’t seen the new cars race on the track? That unknown makes his driver rating lower for this race, or at least until Saturday’s practice where 10-consecutive laps averages will be the gateway to finding a gem.
If it’s Larson that is fastest or second fastest in those 10 lap averages it might be a long day for the rest of the field because Larson thrives on 2-mile D-Shaped sister tracks in Fontana and Michigan. He won four straight races on them from 2016-17. A win and two runner-ups at Fontana is a strong resume.
“I don’t know what to expect,” Larson said. “Obviously, we will all learn a lot during practice and qualifying on Saturday. We used to run low for a few laps then move up a couple lanes. Then after seven or eight laps you could run all over the place. But I believe they put resin down, so I don’t know how that will affect it.”
HANDICAPPING THE WISE POWER 400
The driver I invested the most in this week is Kyle Busch at 8-to-1 odds to win just because he leads all active drivers in wins (4), top-fives (11), top-10s (16), laps led (807) in 22 Cup starts at Fontana. He was runner-up the last time there in 2020, dominated in 2019 winning all three stages, and third in 2018. He’s been third or better in seven of his last nine starts (3 wins). He’s also got JGR behind him, so it wasn’t hard for my money to follow the driver skills combined with the ownership money that demands excellence.
“I really enjoy the 2-mile track,” Busch said. “I love going out to California. It’s a driver’s track and it’s aged over time. The surface has been ground, but I don’t think it’s been paved since it was first built back in 1997 or 1998. It’s been a long time with the place being aged, and it’s aged well. You can run all over it. Typically, recently you run up around the wall in the turns but you can still move around a bit. I hope the NextGen car will also allow us to move around and be pretty racy. We’ll go there this weekend with our Interstate Batteries Camry and try and get another win there.”
Busch also has six Xfinity Series wins and two Truck Series wins at Fontana..
Welcome back Fontana!
READ MORE HERE.....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
NASCAR looks forward to Auto Club Speedway return
Groundbreaking for California Speedway, as Auto Club Speedway was originally known, took place in November of 1995. The track name was changed to Auto Club Speedway (ACS) in February of 2008. The first race at Auto Club Speedway was an ARCA Menards Series West race won by Ken Schrader on June 21, 1997.
The first NASCAR Cup Series race at Auto Club Speedway was held on June 22, 1997 and won by NASCAR Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon driving the Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 24 Chevrolet.
The September 2004 event was the first night race at Auto Club Speedway and that also was the first year both the NASCAR Cup Series and NASCAR Xfinity Series ran two races in a season there. There have been 31 NASCAR Cup Series races at Auto Club Speedway, the track hosted one race a season from 1997-2003, then two races per season from 2004-2010. In 2011, Auto Club Speedway returned to a single-race season.
Last season (2021) due to the COVID-19 Pandemic restrictions, Auto Club Speedway was removed from the NASCAR Cup Series schedule but has returned this season to be the second race on the 2022 schedule.
Auto Club Speedway’s 31 previous NASCAR Cup Series races have produced 20 different poles winners and 18 different race winners. 23XI Racing’s Kurt Busch leads the NASCAR Cup Series in poles at Auto Club Speedway with four (2015, 2007 and 2006 sweep). Joe Nemechek won the inaugural NASCAR Cup Series pole at Auto Club Speedway in 1997 with a speed of 183.015 mph (39.341 secs).
Six of the 20 NASCAR Cup Series Auto Club Speedway pole winners are active this weekend.
Active Pole Winners | Poles | Seasons |
Kurt Busch | 4 | 2006 Sweep, 2007, 2015 |
Denny Hamlin | 3 | 2009, 2012, 2013 |
Austin Dillon | 2 | 2016, 2019 |
Kyle Larson | 1 | 2017 |
Martin Truex Jr | 1 | 2018 |
Kyle Busch | 1 | 2005 |
Kyle Busch leads the NASCAR Cup Series in wins at Auto Club Speedway with four victories (2005, 2013, 2014, 2019). Seven of the 18 NASCAR Cup Series race winners at Auto Club Speedway are active this weekend.
Active Winners | Wins | Seasons |
Kyle Busch | 4 | 2005, 2013, 2014, 2019 |
Alex Bowman | 1 | 2020 |
Martin Truex Jr | 1 | 2018 |
Kyle Larson | 1 | 2017 |
Brad Keselowski | 1 | 2015 |
Kevin Harvick | 1 | 2011 |
Kurt Busch | 1 | 2003 |
All the action begins this Saturday, February 26 at Auto Club Speedway with NASCAR Cup Series practice at 2 p.m. ET and qualifying at 2:35 p.m. ET.
-- NASCAR
New Practice/Qualifying format to begin this weekend at Auto Club Speedway
The announcement comes after nearly two seasons with race weekends largely held without practice or qualifying – a procedure born out of necessity to reduce travel days and on-site personnel while navigating the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2022, all events across all three NASCAR national series are scheduled to include qualifying.
“NASCAR is excited to return practice and qualifying to its race weekends,” said Scott Miller, NASCAR senior vice president of competition. “We missed seeing cars and trucks on track all weekend long, and so did our fans. We worked closely with our broadcast partners, teams and racetracks to create an exciting, unique qualifying format, while keeping several of the efficiencies that helped our entire industry successfully navigate the pandemic.”
For a majority of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, the field will be split into two groups and participate in a practice and qualifying event that will last approximately two hours. The two-hour window will allow broadcast partners ample time and ability to cover the entire field, bringing wide-ranging, in-depth stories and insight to millions of fans each and every weekend.
During six NASCAR Cup Series weekends, five NASCAR Xfinity Series weekends and eight NASCAR Camping World Truck Series weekends, NASCAR will implement an extended practice weekend schedule, which will feature one standalone 50-minute practice as well as a qualifying event.
Below is the format for the NASCAR Cup Series this season.
Oval Qualifying
- Group A and Group B will each receive 15 minutes of practice
- Groups set by odd/even finishing order of previous race
- Qualifying Round 1 (Group A) – single car, one lap*
- Top 5 transfer to Final Round
- Qualifying Round 1 (Group B) – single car, one lap*
- Top 5 transfer to Final Round
- Qualifying Final Round (10 cars) – single car, one lap*
* — Two laps at Bristol, Dover, Martinsville and Richmond
Superspeedways
- Qualifying Round 1 (all cars) – single car, one lap
- Top 10 transfer to Final Round
- Qualifying Final Round (10 cars) – single car, one lap
Road Course
- Group A and Group B will each receive 20 minutes of practice
- Qualifying Round 1 (Group A) – 15-minute timed session
- Top 5 transfer to Final Round
- Qualifying Round 1 (Group B) – 15-minute timed session
- Top 5 transfer to Final Round
- Qualifying Final Round (10 cars) – 10-minute timed session
Cole Custer is 250/1 to win at Fontana
COLE CUSTER Fontana Advance No. 41 Production Alliance Group Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing
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Event Overview |
● Event: Wise Power 400 (Round 2 of 36) ● Time/Date: 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 27 ● Location: Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California ● Layout: 2-mile oval ● Laps/Miles: 200 laps/400 miles ● Stage Lengths: Stage 1: 65 laps / Stage 2: 65 laps / Final Stage: 70 laps ● TV/Radio: FOX / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
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Notes of Interest |
● Southern California native Cole Custer returns home to race for the second time in three weeks as the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, for the first time in two years for Sunday’s Wise Power 400.
● Returning to Custer’s No. 41 Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) for the first time since that February 2020 race at Fontana is Production Alliance Group (PAG). Tustin, California-based PAG is a premium live-event and creative development company. Its creative works can been seen at concerts, award shows, sporting events, and corporate events. From the lights to the sound and everything in-between, PAG is the creativity and execution behind it all.
● Custer and his fellow Cup Series competitors first ventured to his Southern California stomping grounds Feb. 5 and 6 for the successful debut of the long-anticipated NextGen car that saw its first racing action in the non-points Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum. The native of Ladera Ranch, California, and 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year had a solid weekend on the purpose-built, quarter-mile asphalt oval in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, qualifying sixth and then finishing fourth in his heat race to advance to the 150-lap main event. He completed every lap and took the checkered flag seventh.
● In last Sunday’s season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway, Custer overcame early race fueling issues and brought home a 20th-place finish. He started The Great American Race 31st after starting 15th and finishing 16th in his Duel qualifying race Thursday night. He was 29th in Wednesday night’s single-car time trials.
● Sunday’s race marks Custer’s 77th in the Cup Series and his second at Fontana. The 24-year-old started and finished 18th in his previous start in February 2020.
● Custer will make his return to the Xfinity Series in Saturday’s Production Alliance Group 300 behind the wheel of the No. 07 for SS GreenLight Racing. He has three NASCAR Xfinity Series starts on the 2-mile oval, the most recent resulting in a victory in March 2019. Custer qualified his No. 00 SHR Ford third and beat runner-up Kyle Busch by 1.927 seconds, leading 29 laps along the way. He started fourth and finished sixth in the previous year’s Xfinity Series race at Fontana.
● Coincidentally, it was in victory lane after the 2019 Xfinity Series race that the PAG-SHR relationship began. The race was called the Production Alliance Group 300, and that is where Custer first met company president and CEO Dale Sahlin. The two kept in touch, and PAG ultimately decided to increase its presence within NASCAR to SHR’s Xfinity Series program that year, and to SHR’s Cup Series program in 2020.
● That 2019 Xfinity Series win at Fontana was also Custer’s first with crew chief Mike Shiplett. The two went on to win seven more times that year – one less than Christopher Bell’s series high – en route to second in the driver championship. Shiplett scored a previous Xfinity Series victory at Fontana in 2017 with driver Kyle Larson while the two were with Chip Ganassi Racing.
● The NextGen is the seventh version of the stock car NASCAR introduced in 1949. Its most notable features include a sequential shifter, 670-horsepower engines, a single center-lock wheel nut akin to Indy cars and sports cars, and car numbers just behind the front wheels, as well as carbon fiber-reinforced plastic body panels, a carbon-fiber floor that covers the entire underneath portion of the car, and a rear-end diffuser – all of which are in place to reduce dirty air. Its rack-and-pinion steering replaces the archaic recirculating ball used in its predecessors, and an independent rear suspension is a drastic upgrade from the full-floating axle first championed by 1950s-era Detroit products. Most importantly, the NextGen car is much more in line with what manufacturers sell and consumers want to see.
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Cole Custer, Driver of the No. 41 Production Alliance Group Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing |
After your solid result at the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum to open the year, it seemed like Daytona was headed in the right direction. Your thoughts? “Man, that was a heartbreaker. I thought we did a pretty good job at the start of the race. We had good pit stops, we got off pit road well, things were looking pretty decent at the start of the race. We came down pit road the second time and it wouldn’t take fuel, so it’s just one of those things with this NextGen car. It’s one of those things we learned from for the next time how to make it better. You want to go out there and race for the win in the Daytona 500, but we still brought home a clean racecar. Man, I wish we could’ve raced for the win, but we’ll be all the more hungry when we get back to my home track at Fontana.”
How do you like racing on your home racetrack? “I love it. It’s a great racetrack because you’re moving around so much, slipping and sliding, and there are so many different racing lines you can use depending on what your car wants. We’ve won there in the Xfinity Series and that’s when we first met our sponsors from PAG, so that was all very cool. I’d love to bring them another win there this weekend.”
Now that you have a couple of races under your belt with the NextGen car, what kind of expectations have been set for you and the team? “I think the biggest thing is getting back to what we do best at SHR, and that’s just competing up front and going for wins. Last year, for every single one of us, it was not the year that we wanted. We wanted to be able to run up front more and have more competitive races where we got to compete for wins. This year is the perfect year to rebound from that and show people what we can do. We showed at Daytona that we’re headed in the right direction with a couple of top-five finishes. And who knows how things might have turned out differently if we wouldn’t have had the fueling issue, and if Kevin (Harvick) didn’t get caught up in that late wreck. We want to get back to multi-win seasons and get to victory lane a lot more. We put a lot of work into this NextGen car, the guys have been working extremely hard trying to figure out every single little piece, and I think we’ve hit the ground running in trying to get back to victory lane as soon as we can.”
What are the most significant differences you’ve noticed so far about this new car, as far as sitting inside the car and some of the nuances as far as its driveability? “One of the biggest things is probably the mirrors, especially at a track like Daytona. You can’t see quite as much in the rearview mirror, and you also have the digital mirror, so it’s totally different and is taking some getting used to, trying to be sure of how far away somebody is behind you. You know, we’re working in inches, so if you get that wrong, bad things can happen. As for the way it drives, I think the biggest thing is the tires. The tires are wider. And the brakes are better. You don’t have as much wheel hop, I feel like, with the independent rear suspension. So it’s a lot of little quirks here and there that we kind of have to relearn and then also figure out how to push it to its limits.”
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