Charlotte Practice Notes: Regan Smith Has a Legitmate Chance

Regan Smith: Shades of McMurray in 2002 (Getty)

By Micah Roberts
The Linemakers on Sporting News

The big news this week was Dale Earnhardt Jr. revealing he had a concussion that would force him to miss the next two races. This eliminates any possible chance of him winning the Chase, something even the most die-hard Junior fans already saw the writing on the wall following Talladega last week as he fell four positions to 11th, 51-points behind leader Brad Keselowski.

Regan Smith will take over the No. 88 ride this week and will get to show the NASCAR Nation once again what a good driver he really is when using quality equipment. This week he gets to drive the same chassis Junior used to finish eighth to kick off the Chase at Chicago.

Earnhardt was actually considered one of the favorites Saturday night at Charlotte just because of running so well at every 1.5-mile track this season, including finishing sixth in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May. The No. 88 was the only car to finish within the top-10 at all seven 1.5-mile tracks this season.

It’s rare that we see a quality ride being taken over during the season by another driver, but in this instance, it did evoke memories of 2002 in the fall Charlotte race when Jamie McMurray took over the stout No. 40 Dodge for an injured Sterling Marlin, winning the race in only his second Cup start. Marlin’s car had been one of the better cars that season on 1.5-mile tracks and McMurray took advantage of the opportunity and ran with it.

Here in Las Vegas, there was a massive change in the odds at the LVH Super Book. Regan Smith has routinely been offered at 500-to-1 odds, and was again opened at those same odds for Saturday’s race. After Thursday’s announcement, Smith’s odds dropped all the way down to 30-to-1. The LVH said they had taken wagers on Smith already from the same few people that bet him every week following Smith’s win at Darlington last season.

After seeing Smith run in practice, it might be wise to even drop his odds more, because Smith has the look of a driver that can win this week. He was second fastest during happy hour, but perhaps the most telling sign that he’ll perform well is that he had the second fastest 10-consecutive lap average.

With all the struggles that Junior had to finally get a win this season and doubts that were cast upon his skills as a driver along the way, if Smith were to win in his first crack at it…well, you kind of get the idea of what will be said.

We have Smith and the No. 88 rated No. 7 this week as a driver with more than a punchers chance at winning. Not only do we respect the car and crew chief Steve Letarte, but we also think very highly of Smith as a driver. Like McMurray is 2002, you have to make the most of your limited opportunities. Smith should make the most out of getting a chance to drive a Hendrick Motorsports powered car.

Here’s a look at this week’s ratings with a formula that mixes in Friday’s practices with what happened at the high banked 1.5-mile sister tracks of Charlotte, Texas and Atlanta this season, a small mix of what happened on the other four 1.5-mile tracks some past history as well. Atlanta gets a little more emphasis because it was the most recent race run among the sister tracks, the notes are fresher and more easily able to reproduce than what happened at Charlotte in May.

1. Denny Hamlin (6/1): He didn’t wow us in Friday’s practices with single lap speeds, but he did post the best 10-consecutive lap average during happy hour, along with the best overall average speeds during his 46 laps run. He also ran the fastest lap during Thursday’s practice while in qualifying trim. Hamlin was already considered the favorite to win based on what he did all season on 1.5-mile tracks, specifically, winning at Atlanta. He hasn’t won at Charlotte yet, but did have a career best runner-up finish in May.

2. Kyle Busch (7/1): He had the fastest lap during happy hour and looks to be the familiar Kyle we know who shows up strong at Charlotte every time out. He’s finished third of better in four of his past five Charlotte starts. Going back further, he’s finished eighth or better in 10 of his past 12 starts. He’s never won at Charlotte, but that might change Saturday night.

3. Kasey Kahne (8/1): Not only is he a four-time winner on the track, but one of those wins came in the Coca-Cola 600 in May. He loves this track and it seems to like him too. Kahne ran 42 laps during happy hour, gained the ninth fastest lap, but more importantly, was second-best -- behind Hamlin -- in average speeds. Only Hamlin and Kahne were able to maintain a 184 mph average among drivers that ran at least 8 laps.

Read More Here....... 

Charlotte Practice 3 Speeds

Charlotte Practice 2 Speeds

-- Micah Roberts has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995.

UPDATED LVH SUPER BOOK ODDS

Jimmie Johnson made the LVH favorite after Friday's practices (Getty) 

BANK OF AMERICA 500
CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2012

JIMMIE JOHNSON 9-2
DENNY HAMLIN 6
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12
KYLE BUSCH 7
KASEY KAHNE 8
JEFF GORDON 12
TONY STEWART 20
MARTIN TRUEX JR 15
CLINT BOWYER 15
MATT KENSETH 10
GREG BIFFLE 8
DALE EARNHARDT JR xxxx
CARL EDWARDS 20
MARK MARTIN 12
KEVIN HARVICK 20
JOEY LOGANO 40
KURT BUSCH 100
RYAN NEWMAN 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
SAM HORNISH JR 100
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 200
JEFF BURTON 300
PAUL MENARD 200
JAMIE McMURRAY 200
JUAN MONTOYA 200
TREVOR BAYNE 300
ARIC ALMIROLA 500
REGAN SMITH 30
BOBBY LABONTE 500
FIELD 200