Denny Hamlin is +450 favorite to win fifth time at Kansas

Denny Hamlin / No. 11 Yahoo Toyota Camry TRD Preview

Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway

 

No. 11 Yahoo Toyota Camry TRD News and Notes

• CONTRACT EXTENSION: On Monday, Joe Gibbs Racing announced that Denny Hamlin has signed a multi-year contract extension to continue driving the team’s No. 11 Toyota Camry TRD. Hamlin is the team’s longest-tenured driver with more than 600 starts since making his NASCAR Cup Series debut at Kansas Speedway on October 9, 2005.
• HAMLIN AT KANSAS: Hamlin is the all-time Cup Series wins leader at Kansas Speedway with four, including his thrilling victory at the track earlier this season. Overall, he has posted 12 top-five finishes and 13 top-10s at the 1.5-mile track. The No. 11 driver has recorded four consecutive top-five finishes at Kansas dating back to October 2021.
• DARLINGTON RECAP: Hamlin led a season-high 177 laps in last weekend’s race at Darlington Raceway. A day after winning the track’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race, Hamlin started second and won the first two stages before an unscheduled pit stop during the final segment relegated him to a 25th-place finish.
• GABEHART EFFECT: Since being paired with crew chief Chris Gabehart at the start of the 2019 season, Hamlin leads the Cup Series with 19 victories, 75 top-five finishes, and 4,697 laps led. During their time working together, the duo has won at seven of the nine remaining tracks, including three victories at Kansas Speedway.
• CUP DEBUT: In October 2005, Kansas Speedway played host to Hamlin’s NASCAR Cup Series debut. The Chesterfield, Virginia native started seventh and finished 32nd that weekend.
• YAHOO: Hamlin’s No. 11 Camry will feature Yahoo as the primary sponsor this weekend at Kansas Speedway. Yahoo was previously on the No. 11 Camry for races at North Wilkesboro, Chicago, and Indianapolis earlier this year.
• JGR AT KANSAS: Joe Gibbs Racing owns eight Cup Series wins at Kansas Speedway, including Hamlin’s victory in May. In 119 combined starts at the 1.5-mile tri-oval, the organization has tallied 35 top-five finishes, 55 top-10s, three pole awards, and 1,532 laps led. Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Tony Stewart join Hamlin on the list of drivers who have taken JGR to victory lane in Kansas.
• TUNE IN: Coverage of this weekend’s race in Kansas begins Sunday, September 10, at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN Radio, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

 

Denny Hamlin, Driver of the No. 11 Yahoo Toyota Camry TRD

What is our outlook returning to Kansas this weekend?

“Kansas has been a great track for me, Chris Gabehart and our 11 team. Obviously winning the race there in the spring gives us some extra confidence going back. That helps me to not get too caught up in ‘Oh my gosh. What happened at Darlington?’. I’ve got to shift my focus to Kansas. I’ve learned that you have to live with the result because you can’t change it. So, we’re moving forward and working on the next race. We’ll be as ready as possible when we get there and then just have to execute the race as a team. If we do that, we’ll be fine.”

 

Hamlin NASCAR Cup Series Stats at Kansas Speedway

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
30	4	12	13	0	383	12.8	12.9

 

Hamlin 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Season Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
27	2	9	12	4	566	10.5	12.8

 

Hamlin NASCAR Cup Series Career Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
641	50	217	333	40	13,920	11.9	13.2

 

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Kevin Harvick is 20/1 to win 2023 Hollywood Casino 400

 

KEVIN HARVICK Kansas Advance No. 4 SUNNYD Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

Event Overview

●  Event:  Hollywood Casino 400 (Round 28 of 36) ●  Time/Date:  3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Sept. 10 ●  Location:  Kansas Speedway in Kansas City ●  Layout:  1.5-mile oval ●  Laps/Miles:  267 laps/400.5 miles ●  Stage Lengths:  Stage 1: 80 laps / Stage 2: 85 laps / Final Stage: 102 laps ●  TV/Radio:  USA / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

●  Dorothy was right. There’s no place like home. And for Harvick, home is an intermediate racetrack. With apologies to those in Harvick’s hometown of Bakersfield, California, the veteran racer has made the intermediate tracks that comprise the majority of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule his home. Of Harvick’s 60 career NASCAR Cup Series wins, 24 have come at intermediate-style racetracks. Kansas Speedway – a sweeping, D-shaped oval that has produced high speeds and daring, side-by-side racing since its debut in 2001 – is where Harvick has earned three of those victories. Harvick has competed at the track for every one of its Cup Series races – the only driver to do so – and has amassed quite the history in his 35 career starts there. In addition to his three wins, Harvick has five second-place finishes, 11 top-threes, 12 top-fives, 19 top-10s and has led 949 laps, making the driver of the No. 4 SUNNYD Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing one of the most successful drivers in Kansas’ relatively young history. His average start there is 13.4, his average finish is 9.9 and he has a lap completion rate of 96.3 percent.   ●  Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas serves as the second race of the 10-race playoffs. Harvick is a part of the 16-driver playoff field, and he comes into the race 14th among his playoff counterparts. Harvick finished 19th in the playoff opener last Sunday night at Darlington (S.C.) Raceway where he went from prince to pauper in just a few seconds. Running second and on the back bumper of race-leader Tyler Reddick, Harvick ducked onto pit road on lap 310 for a scheduled, four-tire stop that would have taken him to the finish. But as Harvick was committed to pit road, Ryan Newman spun to bring out the caution. And just before Harvick crossed the stripe to enter pit road, NASCAR closed the pits. Harvick had nowhere to go but to continue down pit road, so he was hit with a penalty. Upon completing his pit stop, Harvick had to restart at the tail-end of the longest line. After being second and poised to take the lead from Reddick, Harvick was now buried in the rundown of the 36-car field when the race returned to green on lap 317. He used the final 50 laps to claw his back to 19th when the checkered flag waved. It put Harvick two points below the top-12 cutline, as only the 12 highest drivers in points after the third playoff race next Saturday night at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway will advance to the second round of the playoffs. A win at either Kansas or Bristol will punch Harvick’s ticket to the Round of 12.   ●  Kansas is one of the 10 tracks that make up the NASCAR Playoffs, and of Harvick’s 60 career NASCAR Cup Series victories, 23 have come at the remaining playoff venues. Three of those wins have been at Kansas, while Harvick also has three wins apiece at Bristol and Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth. He has two wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and one win each at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway and Martinsville (Va.) Speedway. The remaining nine wins were earned at the most valuable playoff venue – Phoenix Raceway, home to the championship-deciding race. The only playoff track where Harvick doesn’t have a win is the Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway Roval.   ●  Harvick scored his first NASCAR Cup Series win at Kansas in the 2013 Hollywood Casino 400 with a massive 1.14-second margin over runner-up Kurt Busch. Harvick scored his next Kansas win in the 2016 Hollywood Casino 400 with another impressive performance, crossing the stripe 1.183 seconds ahead of next-best Carl Edwards. Harvick’s most recent Kansas victory came in May 2018, when he beat Martin Truex, Jr., by .39 of a second.   ●  Harvick is tied for the second-most wins at Kansas with Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, all of whom have three victories apiece. Denny Hamlin leads with the most victories at Kansas, as his win in the series’ previous race at the 1.5-mile oval in May gave him four triumphs to break what had been a five-way tie. Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 marks the 36th Cup Series race at Kansas.   ●  Harvick’s 12 top-fives at Kansas are the most among active drivers, as are his 19 top-10s. Next best in top-fives is Hamlin with 12, and when it comes to top-10s, Truex is next-best with 17.   ●  No one has led more laps at Kansas than Harvick. His 949 laps led are 43 more laps than Truex, his nearest pursuer in this category.   ●  Harvick is good at Kansas even outside of the NASCAR Cup Series. He has six top-fives across 11 NASCAR Xfinity Series starts at the track, with the highlight being a victory in September 2006 when he beat Matt Kenseth for the win by .423 of a second. Kenseth retired from NASCAR upon the conclusion of the 2020 season and was inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame earlier this year.

Kevin Harvick, Driver of the No. 4 SUNNYD Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

What will make this year’s playoffs a success for you? “My goal was to be competitive, and we’ve been fortunate to do that, for the most part. There were a couple of weeks where we weren’t very competitive, but it seems that’s kind of the norm with this particular car. You just want to go as far as you can and do everything that you can to maximize each and every week, and that’s what we’re good it.”   Nine races left in your NASCAR Cup Series career. Is it becoming more and more surreal that you’re seeing these tracks for the last time? “I’ve had that question a lot, and every time I go to a track for the last time, it doesn’t feel that bad. For me, it was really important to be at this point of where I am in my driving career. Coming back this year and running this last season and making it as public as it’s been, to have a plan for logos and racetracks and fans and people to come the last time, and to go back and look at all the old pictures and hear the fans’ stories and racetrack stories, or whatever the scenario is, it’s put really good closure to whatever event it is. We’ve had a lot of success at Kansas, but there’s really not anything that has happened so far where I was like, ‘Oh man, I’m not so sure that I’m happy about it being the last time.’ I’m so far into planning for next year, and everything is already lined up with the television and the management company, and you’ve already moved on to making a new plan and you’re living out the rest of the plan that you’d already laid out at this time last year. The closure to me has just been the fact that it is what it is. That points to us doing a really good job of planning it all out, and I feel like we’re good at just moving on to the next task.”   Do you need to win a championship this year for closure on your NASCAR Cup Series career? “For me, I don’t really need anything. I feel like we’re at this point of where we are because we’ve been fortunate to be successful and all the things that come with that. We’ve been close to winning races this year and haven’t had it all work out. I can feel that from the fans on a weekly basis. You feel the fans’ want for you to be successful, and I think they’re really understanding that this season is a lot for them to come to the racetrack and let them celebrate and do the things they do, go to the races they want to and celebrate things, whatever they want to celebrate because, when you talk to people, it’s just different for each person. Some you’re helping through a hard time. For some it’s, ‘I became a fan when Dale (Earnhardt) died.’ Some of it’s, ‘I like you because of Keelan.’ Some of it’s, ‘I like you this year because it’s your last year.’ It just depends. So that part to me has been very motivating because they want you to be successful as bad as you want to be successful. I think I definitely appreciate and feel that from the fans. We’ve just got to put it together, it’s just got to come together. If you look back at Phoenix, or Daytona two weeks ago and even Darlington last week, it’s just those two or three little scenarios, or one scenario that just has to work out, because when you look at the rest of it, or look at it from a stat standpoint, the only thing that’s wrong with everything we’ve been able to work through this year is we just haven’t won.”   Your history at intermediate tracks has been really strong, particularly at Kansas. Can you pull anything from past years to where if you have to play defense, you can because you know every nook and cranny of the racetrack? “There aren’t a lot of things that you can relate to with the car, but there are a lot of things you can relate to with the racetrack. There are a lot of races that I’ve gone back and watched from 2010, 2011, where the cars had different characteristics, and things that happen because the way you drive it and where you would drive it on the racetrack are a little bit different with this car than it was with the older cars. But you keep that playbook as open as possible in order to have some options because you can’t just say it won’t work, you can only drive it in one spot on the racetrack, especially at a place like Kansas, where you have options. So you have to be ready to create some options if you need them.”   In an ideal situation, where do you want to run at Kansas? “You have to be good middle to the top of the racetrack in order to make good time at Kansas and be able to survive on the long run and make enough speed, so that’s what we’ll concentrate on.”   Middle to the top of the racetrack is where you want to run at Kansas, but when do you adjust that line in the event you’re getting beat? “I’m going to always want my car to be versatile just because if you’re married to that top lane and your car won’t work anywhere else, you don’t have a really good chance of making time and passing people. If you get married to that top lane and catch 15th, 16th place in the field and they’re also married to that top lane, it becomes difficult to pass and then your gaps shrink rapidly as you’re trying to make your way through the field. You need to have some versatility. If your car’s decent up top, you can make good lap times up there, regardless, and park yourself in front of the guys who are also wanting to run up the top. But if your car’s a little more versatile than others, you can kind of swing down through the middle, especially in turns three and four.”   Your history at Kansas is impressive. Three wins, five second-place finishes, 11 top-threes, 12 top-fives, 19 top-10s and 949 laps led across 35 career NASCAR Cup Series starts. What makes you so good there? “I think Kansas has been a great racetrack and, really, from a driver’s standpoint, a fun racetrack because of the fact that it’s worn in so well. You can race at the top of the racetrack, which is the preferred groove as the tires wear out. It’s faster at the bottom of the racetrack on new tires. But as a driver, having options is something that is a lot of fun. With Atlanta having been repaved along with some of the other racetracks, Kansas has become one of the more unique racetracks because of the fact the asphalt and the shape of the racetrack are so driver-friendly, as far as where you can drive on the racetrack. You can literally drive from the wall to the apron all the way around the racetrack. So, it’s a fun racetrack. It’s been good to us and, hopefully, we can continue that trend on Sunday.”   Race strategy, particularly at Kansas, has come into play in recent races. While strategy is more in the realm of your crew chief, Rodney Childers, when it dictates a race outcome instead of sheer performance, do you have to sort of switch your mindset, perhaps by finding some patience even when you want to just go as hard as you can? “These cars, in certain situations, have worn the tires a lot more than what they’ve done in the past. Kansas can be a high-wear racetrack just because of the way that the surface has aged, which is a great thing. So, I think for a lot of that, you’ll just have to see what the pit windows are and what the tire wear is when we go there. But it’s definitely a racey track. Those guys can see a lot more on the pit box than I can see in the car, so I usually just go with what they tell me and kind of roll from there.”

Aric Almirola is 250/1 to win 2023 Hollywood Casino 400

 

ARIC ALMIROLA Kansas Advance No. 10 Smithfield/Whataburger Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

Event Overview

●  Event:  Hollywood Casino 400  (Round 28 of 36) ●  Time/Date:  3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Sept. 10 ●  Location:  Kansas Speedway in Kansas City ●  Layout:  1.5-mile oval ●  Laps/Miles:  267 laps / 400 miles ●  Stage Lengths:  Stage 1: 80 laps / Stage 2: 85 laps / Final Stage: 102 laps ●  TV/Radio:  USA / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

●  History at Kansas: In 22 NASCAR Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Almirola has seven top-10 finishes and has led 69 laps. He finished 13th at Kansas earlier this year.    ●  Driver Standings: Almirola arrives at Kansas 23rd in the driver standings.   ●  Almirola’s career: In 451 career NASCAR Cup Series starts, Almirola has three wins, 28 top-five finishes, 93 top-10s, five poles, and has led 1,068 laps.   ●  Last weekend at Darlington, Almirola ran in and around the top-10 for the majority of the race. A multicar stack-up during the Stage 2 restart caused unrepairable nose damage to his racecar, causing poor handling conditions for the remainder of the race. He finished 14th.    ●  Whataburger Appearance: At 2 PM CDT, on Saturday Sept. 9, Almirola will appear for a 15-minute Q&A followed by a 15-minute autograph session at the Whataburger location at 10780 Parallel Parkway, Kansas City, KS 66109 – just across the street from Kansas Speedway.   ●  Smithfield has been a sponsor of Almirola’s for the entirety of his fulltime NASCAR Cup Series career – making it one of the longest-lasting partnerships in NASCAR. Smithfield is an American food company with agricultural roots and a global reach. Its 63,000 team members are dedicated to producing “Good food. Responsibly.®” Smithfield is one of the world’s leading vertically integrated protein companies. The company has pioneered sustainability standards for more than two decades, including its industry-leading commitments to become carbon negative in U.S. company-owned operations and reduce GHG emissions 30 percent across its entire U.S. value chain by 2030. Smithfield believes in the power of protein to end food insecurity and has donated hundreds of millions of food servings to local communities.   ●  Whataburger is the hometown hamburger place that hasn’t compromised. Whataburger serves bold flavors and original recipes made to order, just like customers like it, and prides itself on extraordinary hospitality and meaningful connections in the communities. That’s what’s led fans to Whataburger since Harmon Dobson served its first customer in 1950. Headquartered in San Antonio, Whataburger stayed close to its roots while building sales of more than $3 billion annually across its 14-state footprint and more than 930 locations.   ●  Beyond the 10 YouTube Series:In 2023, Almirola is continuing to share his life beyond the No. 10 Ford with season five of his award-winning YouTube series. Fans and media can subscribe on YouTube to see Almirola’s personality on and off the track. Episodes have already featured life as a dad, a husband and an athlete, and the show gives fans a unique perspective on what goes on in the life of a professional NASCAR driver. Fans can also follow Almirola’s social media channels: @Aric_Almirola on Twitter and Instagram, and @AricAlmirola on Facebook.

Aric Almirola, Driver of the No. 10 Smithfield/Whataburger Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing:

Your 13th-place finish in the May race at Kansas is your best intermediate-track finish this year. Why is that?   “You know there’s something about Kansas that I have always enjoyed and brought a lot of confidence at. It’s statistically one of my best intermediate tracks and we always seem to find ourselves with speed even though the results don’t always show it. It will be great to improve on our top-15 finish earlier this year because we still have Texas and Miami coming up to work off of.”   Do you feel like you made a statement as a team after your solid run at Darlington?    “Absolutely. I know we finished 14th, but that was with damage to the nose and splitter we couldn’t fix. All of our cars showed speed. Kevin (Harvick) had one of the fastest cars up there in clean air, too, and Chase (Briscoe) ran around the top-10, too. Our organization hit on something and I think you’re going to see more of that for the rest of the season.”    What are your thoughts about racing at Kansas?   “I know that I did have a really bad accident there, but in my mind I just view that as a bad accident. It just happened at a place. It just so happened to be at Kansas. It could have happened anywhere. I don’t really put that on Kansas and so, every time I’ve been back since then, it’s never really been a thought that’s crossed my mind. I actually enjoy going to Kansas. I have friends in Kansas City who I enjoy spending time with that makes it even more enjoyable to be there and, on top of that, I love the racetrack. The racetrack is a really fun racetrack to run at for me and I’ve had a lot of success there and had a lot of really good runs there.”

Martin Truex Jr is +550 to win at Kansas

 

Martin Truex Jr. Kansas Advance No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD for Joe Gibbs Racing

Event Overview

● Event: Hollywood Casino 400 (Round 28 of 36) ● Time/Date: 3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Sept. 10 ● Location: Kansas Speedway in Kansas City ● Layout: 1.5-mile oval ● Laps/Miles: 267 laps/400 miles ● Stage Lengths: Stage 1: 80 laps / Stage 2: 85 laps / Final Stage: 102 laps ● TV/Radio: USA Network / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

● Martin Truex Jr., and the No. 19 team for Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) set the tone for the season right out of the gate by winning the 150-lap feature in the non-points Clash at the Coliseum on Feb. 5 in Los Angeles. Truex won his heat race, then went on to lead the final 25 laps of the feature en route to a victory that gave him and the team much-needed momentum heading into the 2023 season. While the team was knocking on the door over the first 10 points-paying races, the breakthrough win finally came at Dover (Del.) Motor Speedway on May 1, and Truex has added two more points-paying victories and four overall this season – June 11 at Sonoma (Calif.) Raceway and July 17 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon.   ● Playoff Time: Truex started the playoffs with an 18th-place finish last weekend at Darlington (S.C.) Raceway and now sits sixth in the standings, 25 points above the 12th-place cutline with two races remaining in the opening Round of 16.   ● 34 and Counting: Truex’s win at New Hampshire was the 34th of his Cup Series career, putting him in a tie with 2004 Cup Series champion Kurt Busch for 25th on the all-time win list in NASCAR’s top series.   ● Truex has two wins, 10 top-five finishes, 17 top-10s and has led a total of 906 laps in 30 career NASCAR Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City. Truex’s average Kansas finish is 12.1.   ● Strong in the Heartland: Truex’s two Kansas wins came by way of a season sweep of the spring and fall races there in 2017. The feat kicked off a 13-race stretch on the 1.5-mile oval during which he earned six top-fives and finished inside the top-10 all but once.    ● While he doesn’t like to play favorites, Truex certainly excels at tracks with worn-out surfaces, where driver skill is key to managing the tires and the racecar over the course of a long race. At four such tracks, Kansas, Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, Darlington, and Homestead-Miami Speedway, Truex has six career wins, 23 top-five finishes and 45 top-10s. He’s also led 2,433 laps at three of this year’s 10 playoff tracks. So it should be no surprise that Truex is looking forward to Sunday’s race at Kansas, along with Homestead, site of the third-to-last race of the season and the next-to-last race of the Round of 8.   ● So far this season, Truex has scored three points-paying wins, nine top-five finishes, 15 top-10s and has led an impressive 832 laps through 27 races. To put the laps-led number in perspective, Truex led just 572 during the entire 36-race season in 2022.

Martin Truex Jr., Driver of the No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD

What is racing at Kansas like, and what other track is most similar?   “I would say Kansas is a lot like Homestead but with a tri-oval. Similar corners and little bit of progressive banking. The wall has really come into play the last couple of years there since the asphalt has worn out. So, running high is very important there, and also momentum is very important at Kansas. You have a big, wide front straightaway that gives you the option to make big bold moves on the restarts where it can get pretty wild there. Kansas is definitely high on my list of places I like to race and we are hoping for a great weekend there with our Bass Pro Shops Camry.”   Is your toughest competition within Joe Gibbs Racing?   “I think it is too early to tell. A lot can happen in the playoffs, which we have seen in the past, we just have to worry about ourselves and be consistent and try to execute and we will be fine. The other guys – the 11 (Denny Hamlin) and 20 (Christopher Bell) – are fast. It is always tough to race with your teammates because you all have the same thing and you share everything during the week, so how do you find that extra little bit? I think James (Small, crew chief) has done a really good job of that this year, and we will look to keep it going.”   How do you handle that?   “You just go race hard, and obviously fair. We don’t hold anything back as far as meetings and sharing things, but just once you get to the track on Saturdays, it’s every team for itself. I feel like we do a good job working together and keeping it professional and racing well with each other on the racetrack, as well, so it’s nice to have great teammates.”

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Southern 500 at Darlington

Read my full write-up on Sportsline.com

1 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He was 29th in the spring Darlington race but before getting involved in an accident, he was fast, real fast. Fast enough to win the race winning Stage 2 and leading four times for 93 laps. He’s led laps in his last five there with a best of third-place in 2021. My reason for liking him this week is believing his car will come off the hauler fast as he did on the 1.333-mile layout at Nashville where he led the most laps (five times for 91 laps) on his way to his only win of the season. Darlington is a 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval with 25 degrees of banking with each end being different from each other. He’s going to be fast again this week and be sure to find a better price elsewhere.

2 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1) - When looking at his last three Darlington finishes, you might think he doesn’t like the new car very much. He was 24th last spring, 31st in the fall, and 31st in the spring race this season. But he led 221 laps between the three races. He was in an accident in two of them and had a water pump failure in the other. He’s led laps in his last seven starts there and he has two wins overall and leads active drivers with 914 laps led over 22 starts. He’ll lead laps again on Sunday and fight for the win.

3 #11 Denny Hamlin (15/2) - This is the Lady in Black’s chosen one as he has a best average finish of 7.7 in 22 Cup starts. His four wins are the most among active drivers. He has 12 top-fives, 20 Top-10s, and led 801 laps. He’s pulled all the right moves to win the Lady over and he knows how to build a relationship with her. His race management of tires is the key to all his success. His tires never seem to wear because he’s not all over the place. He keeps his car steady early in runs and by the time all others are slowing down with tire wear his tires are preserved and it’s an edge he’s been successful with at Darlington forever. Too Tough to Tame? He laughs at the notion with a 7.7 average finish.

4 #2 Brad Keselowski (16/1) - It’s got to be tough being part-owner of RFK Racing with no wins the last two seasons watching his teammate Buescher win three of the last five races using a car similar and equal to Keselowski’s own. This sounds like the spot where he could win his first for RFK. He’s third among active drivers with an 11.7 average finish with a 2018 win and he was seventh last fall and fourth in the spring.

5 #22 Joey Logano (18/1) - He’s been good at Darlington at all stages of his Cup career but finally got his first win there last spring. He sat on the pole in both races last season and led 171 laps between the two races. This season in May, he finished 18th. He has a 13.3 average finish between 19 starts.

6 #20 Christopher Bell (12/1) - His only win this season came in the Bristol Dirt Race and he closed out the regular season with no umph or pizazz. No one is talking about him. But he can prove himself to everyone this week when the playoffs begin. And the good news about him is that he’s been very good in his last three races at Darlington with a sixth, fifth, and 14th in May. All three of those were using the NextGen car.

7 #24 William Byron (15/2) - He’s led laps in his last three Darlington starts – all in the new car – and his least amount led happened in his first win there in May. He led just seven laps but was second in Stage 1 and fourth in Stage 2. It’s a good track for him and he’s in the good graces of the Lady.

8 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - His only Cup win at Darlington came in his fourth start there in 2008, but he’s led a bunch of laps over the years – 899 laps led. The reason you might play him this week is because he finished seventh in the spring race and his car finished second and third last season with Reddick driving it.

9 #5 Kyle Larson (6/1) - In the old car, he was always on the brink of winning at Darlington with five top-fives in eight starts. He was runner-up three races in a row, but the new car changed his groove. He was no longer able to tempt the Lady with charm and skills. His edge was gone. His best in his last three with the NextGen car was 12th sandwiched by a 20th in May and 36th in May of 2022, his only DNF there. He's led 715 laps with no wins. But he did win an Xfinity Series race there in the spring.

10 #17 Chris Buescher (18/1) - He’s had three top-10s in his last five starts at Darlington, including 10th in the May race. He’s had three Cup wins in the last five races and the two he didn’t win were on road courses which used to be his specialty. RFK Racing is bringing the speed weekly and found something recently to make them super-fast. He’s a good driver to drop $10 on just because he’s winning everything lately.