Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Thursday, June 17, 2021
Nashville NASCAR Betting Preview: 2021 Ally 400
ALLY 400 PICKS, PREDICTIONS, ODDS |
NASCAR is back at Nashville Superspeedway for the first time since 2011 and for the first time ever, the Cup Series will make an appearance there in Sunday’s Ally 400.
NASCAR ALLY 400 ANALYSIS
All three major NASCAR Series will be in action over Fathers Day weekend with the winner of each race getting a sweet Gibson guitar trophy. There are 14 active Cup drivers who have raced on the 1.33-mile D-shaped concrete oval in the Xfinity and Truck Series and only five active drivers have ever won with Kyle Busch leading the way with three wins. Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski each have two and Austin Dillon and Joey Logano each have one win.
Carl Edwards got his nickname “concrete Carl” by winning five Xfinity Series races at Nashville. By the way, I still have no idea why Edwards suddenly quit NASCAR a few years ago.
Another thing I don’t understand is why they call this a superspeedway. If Nashville is a superspeedway, then Talladega has to be a Super-Duperspeedway, right?
Anyway, there are lots of unknowns with the Nashville layout that has 14 degrees of banking in the turns. When I did my ratings for the week I started with the fact that they are running the 750 horsepower low downforce race package and with no data on the track itself, I used Dover’s 1-mile high-banked concrete layout and Kansas Speedway as a comparison (even though Kansas used the 550 HP package). And then infused an upgrade for all Hendrick Motorsports drivers who have won the last five races including the non-points All-Star Race last week.
It was the four Hendrick drivers that came out 1-2-3-4 in my ratings followed by Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick.
So it came as much of a surprise when I saw sportsbooks like the SuperBook and William Hill offer William Byron at 13-to-1 odds to win and Alex Bowman at 14-to-1. They have Truex, Hamlin, Busch, and Harvick all ahead of the hottest team on the planet right now. Hamlin and Harvick have no wins this season, Bowman has two wins with the 750 HP package and one of those wins was a Dover win in a race in which Hendrick drivers finished 1-2-3-4 and led 382 of the 400 laps.
ALLY 400 BETTING RESOURCES
- Date: Sunday, June 20, 2021
- TV-Time: NBCSN, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Nashville Superspeedway
- Location: Nashville, Tennessee
- Distance: 400 miles, 300 laps
ALLY 400 CONTENDERS
- Kyle Larson +275
- Martin Truex Jr +650
- Chase Elliott +700
- Denny Hamlin +850
- Kyle Busch +900
- More NASCAR Futures
- (Odds Subject to Change)
HANDICAPPING NASCAR AT NASHVILLE
William Byron finished fourth at Dover after leading 21 laps and talked about how he's going to approach a new track with little experience on it.
“You’re not going to have a good feel in general going into this weekend, I think,” said Byron who is tied for the series lead with 12 top-10s. “Nashville (Superspeedway) is going to be one of those places that you just need to adapt and learn as you go. It looks like a superspeedway but it’s more of a short track with how tight the corners are. It’s going to be tough, especially with the heat. I think that this race is going to be one of the toughest places we will go this season just because we don’t have any notes on it. No one has any notes from any series, really.
“Things have changed so much since the last race there. I’m going to rely heavily on the truck race and watching the Xfinity race. I’ll use that info to hopefully learn and be able to adapt faster in our race. It’s going to be challenge but it’s good to have a new environment and the excitement around it.”
Byron is a must-play this week for anyone betting the race. He has to be part of your wagering portfolio this week as well as Bowman. They both have huge value by being undervalued by the books, most of whom use robot bookmakers. Bowman brought up the Dover angle earlier this week.
“I have tested at Nashville Superspeedway before but haven’t actually raced there,” Bowman said. “It is going to be interesting learning the track with the No. 48 Chevrolet in practice on Saturday. Our last race we ran on concrete (Dover) we were able to claim the victory, so we are hoping for the same result on Sunday in our No. 48 Ally Chevy.”
Because Nashville is a new track, the teams will get to practice Saturday and have a qualifying session on Sunday morning before the race.
In the old days just two years ago, I used to bet most of my driver matchups after practice and take advantage of books over adjusting to practices, and before that two decades ago, I used to bet driver matchups with prices that didn’t move at all after practices.
Now in 2021, post COVID-19, I feel pretty good about how the solid teams bring their cars ready to roll off the hauler with a winning set-up made at the team headquarters. I don’t really care about practice anymore and I’ve already bet, but I will pay attention to the 10-consecutive lap averages and hope it forces a bet on someone like Tyler Reddick at 40-to-1 or Austin Dillon at 80-to-1.
This will be the 17th points-paying race of the season and the 10th race using the 750 HP package. Truex won three of the first six using the package and Hendrick drivers have won four overall, including the last three.
Again, Bowman has two wins using this week’s race package including a win on a concrete track, but sure, Harvick should be favored over him. Harvick doesn’t even have a top-five finish using the 750 HP package. Robot bookmaker must be on tilt with its date set on 2020 when Harvick won a series-high nine races. Whatever, just bet it and be happy the books are offering a deal.
William Byron has seen a Top 10 result in 12 of his last 14 races, but outside the Top 10 in 2 of his last 3 races. (AP)
LARSON A HEAVY FAVORITE
As for Larson, he deserves to be a heavy favorite. Second or better in five straight races. He’s going for his third straight win. He led a race-high 263 laps at Dover last month settling for runner-up. After his All-Star win Sunday night he hit the road for a Monday night sprint race and won. He raced Tuesday night as well and finally lost. This dude loves any kind of racing. He also has a 2019 win on the concrete Dover layout and has led 880 laps in 13 career Cup starts.
Chase Elliott has eight top-fives in 11 Dover starts, including a 2018 win. He’ll be in the hunt for another Hendrick win. All the Hendrick drivers will be in the hunt for the win just like at Dover on May 16.
READ MORE HERE.....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
Saturday, April 17, 2021
Richmond NASCAR Betting Preview: 2021 Toyota Owners 400
NASCAR TOYOTA OWNERS 400 ANALYSIS
We’ve got some more NASCAR short track racing from Virginia on Sunday afternoon with the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway’s ¾-mile flat D-shaped oval.
It races like a 1.5-mile speedway, but has all the bump and grind of short track racing that we all love.
TOYOTA OWNERS 400 BETTING RESOURCES
- Date: Sunday, April 18, 2021
- TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Richmond Raceway
- Location: Richmond, Virginia
Last week the series was at Martinsville’s half-mile flat paperclip layout won by Martin Truex Jr. -- the 7/2 favorite -- for his second win of the season.
He’s the first driver to capture two wins after eight races. More importantly, his two wins came with the 750 horsepower package, and even more importantly for this week, those wins were at the flat tracks of Phoenix and Martinsville.
Those two serve as the perfect barometer to help in this week’s wagering strategies.
When I first started creating NASCAR odds in the early 90s, an easy trick I used always worked when setting numbers for Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire.
I saw where a few crew chiefs said they used the same chassis for all three tracks, or at least two of them, so what I did was basically use the results from one of those races to make the odds for the next.
It seemed like every year a driver would win on two of the three flat tracks similar in distance. Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, Davey Allison, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick all had super seasons at those three tracks.
If they did well on one, they did well on the others.
TOYOTA OWNERS 400 CONTENDERS
- Martin Truex Jr. +400
- Brad Keselowski +600
- Denny Hamlin +650
- Joey Logano +750
- Kyle Busch +800
- Chase Elliott +850
- More NASCAR Futures
- (Odds Subject to Change)
So it would make sense for this week that we review what happened at Phoenix Raceway on March 14 which displayed a few 'haves' and many more 'have-nots'.
Nine drivers that finished in the top-10 of Stage 1 finished in the top-10 of the race. Nine drivers that finished in the top-10 of stage 2 finished in the top-10 of the final results. There were 22 lead changes among nine drivers and seven cautions.
I remember it as an entertaining race with Joey Logano having the best car but Truex improving on each pit stop. Logano led a race-high 143 laps and gave up the lead for good with 24 laps to go. Truex would lead 64 laps, Ryan Blaney led 35 laps, and Denny Hamlin led 33 laps.
Joey Logano and the No. 22 team are expected to be contenders on Sunday when the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond. (AP)
The Phoenix finishers were heavy hitters with Truex, Logano runner-up, Hamlin third again, with Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott rounding out the top-five. Hamlin has finished third in all four races using the 750 HP package and has seven top-fives in the eight races on the season. He’s my choice to win this week.
“We can win any given week,” Hamlin said. “We just keep getting beat by one or two cars that have a little bit better balance. But we’re getting closer. There’s nothing saying we can’t win the next three races.”
HANDICAPPING NASCAR AT RICHMOND
HOMETOWN HERO?
Hamlin gets some home cooking this week as Richmond Raceway is 25 minutes from where he grew up in Chesterfield.
“It’s always great getting to race at my hometown track,” he said. “I’ve been fortunate to have had success at Richmond in my career, and I know my team and I are excited for the challenge ahead this weekend to hopefully get a win.”
The best price I’ve seen on Hamlin this week is +555 at Circa Sports while William Hill is offering 5/1 odds.
In 28 Richmond starts, he leads all active drivers with 1,704 laps led. He also has three wins, 13 top-fives, and averaged a 9th-place finish. His last win came from the pole in the 2016 fall race. He had seven wins last season, but none through the first eight races. He’ll be more aggressive this week and not let the win slip away as he has a few times already this season. Or at least that’s how I feel about it.
JGR + RICHMOND = SUCCESS
Hamlin’s teammate Kyle Busch is the best active driver at Richmond, or at least his stats say so. In 30 starts, he has six wins, 18 top-fives, 23 top-10s, 1,488 laps led. I love his William Hill odds at 10/1, but he’s shown me nothing in 2020 or 2021 that he’s fast enough to win with this week’s package. All his Gibbs teammates have been much better with the package.
The actual best Richmond driver now is another Gibbs driver, Truex, who is being offered by Circa Sports at +465 odds. He’s led 106 laps or more in six of the last eight Richmond races. Five of those races ended in top-five finishes, two of them wins (2019). He was runner-up last season. He also won at Phoenix last month, perhaps the best barometer for predicting Richmond.
Two of those three Gibbs drivers don’t have a win yet, but the fourth driver Christopher Bell does. He won with this week’s race package at the Daytona road course, was ninth at Phoenix, and seventh last week at Martinsville. He’s got great stuff as his teammates do, but William Hill is offering him at 28/1 odds as if he doesn’t. He’s worth investing a few bucks to win this week based also on his three Richmond wins in the Xfinity Series.
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Saturday, August 1, 2015
Final Pocono Practice Notes & Driver Ratings: Battle of Busch Bros.?
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| Kyle Busch could easily win his fourth race in a row on Sunday. |
Seeing the two Las Vegas brothers battle for victory wouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone considering they have combined to win five of the past six races on the Cup schedule with Kyle carrying most of the load grabbing the checkers four times.
However, it’s Kurt who has history in his side on Pocono’s 2.5-mile triangular track with two wins and five second-place finishes while Kyle has never won in 21 starts with a best finish of second, twice. In the June 7 Pocono race, Kurt started from the pole and finished fifth while Kyle finished ninth, but starts from the pole on Sunday. Big brother starts sixth.
The thing that stands out the most in favor in Kyle Busch in this race is that the Joe Gibbs organization has been completely transformed from what we saw most of the season on big horsepower tracks. It seems like they’ve used some of the winning set-up notes on temporary race packages used at Kentucky and Indianapolis to better themselves with the regular package where they were struggling.
Or maybe the JGR engine program finally cracked the code that Chevrolet drivers Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. had used to their advantage most of the season. What ever the case may be, it’s like a light switch has suddenly been flipped and the JGR Toyota’s have things all figured out. That edge that Harvick had for most of the season with 11 top-two finishes has been closed.
During Saturday’s first 50-minute practice, it was JGR cars stacking the speed charts 1-2-3-4 led by Carl Edwards (175.812) and followed by Matt Kenseth (175.418), Kyle Busch (175.408) and Denny Hamlin (175.298). Kurt Busch would come in with the fifth fastest speed at 175.285.
For four-time Pocono winner Hamlin, this is the best he’s looked at Pocono since the repave in 2012. His last win came in 2010. Edwards is a two-time winner, the last coming in 2008. The unique thing about the two teammates is that they are the only active drivers to win in their first Cup attempt at Pocono. Edwards accomplished the feat in 2005 and Hamlin followed suit in 2006 when he ended up sweeping the season.
If thinking sweep at Pocono just because it’s happened seven other times, including last season with Dale Earnhardt Jr., then Martin Truex Jr. is your driver. He led 97 laps in the June race after finishing with the sixth fast lap during final practice. In Saturday’s final practice he had the ninth fast lap (174.081) and was 11th fastest in the early session (174.547).
When looking at average speeds it was Edwards and Hamlin with the best 10-consecutive lap average in the early session followed by Kurt Busch and Harvick in the final session. Harvick was sluggish in the morning practice, but his team figured things out in the afternoon and should be in line to battle the JGR power Sunday. He’s finished second in the past two Pocono events, but has never won in 29 starts.
The Gibbs cars look outstanding, but it's still the Stewart Haas Racing duo of Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick that top our charts simply because we have so much more data to go on from the season with this race package. If a Gibbs car wins again, then it's almost as if we can erase just about everything we saw through May with the package that is expected to run exclusively through the Chase. Let's see it happen first before we go changing a formula.
Windows 10 400
Pocono Raceway
Sunday, August 2, 2015 - 10:46 am (PT)
Note: Pocono has a unique 2.5-mile triangular layout with each of the three turns flatter than the previous. It’s called by some as the Superspeedway that races like a road course.
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director who has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994.