Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!
It’s a wild card Sunday in the NASCAR Playoffs at Talladega Superspeedway’s 2.66-mile high-banked monster. The wild card is the beastly layout of the track itself where anything can happen and anyone can win. No playoff-eligible driver has won yet after four races in the playoffs and that trend is heightened by the idea this week that the Big One can take anyone out.
The YellaWood 500 is the perfect race for the mid-point of the playoffs and also the mid-point of the Round of 12. After Next week’s race at the Charlotte ROVAL, four more drivers will get chopped.
The NextGen car has brought all kinds of parity into NASCAR 2022 but what I like most about the season is that anyone can win and not just on the superspeedways as in years past. Bettors can take long shots and cash. There have been 19 different winners through the first 30 races and favorites like Kyle Larson only have two wins. I love that about this season.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week using odds in order courtesy of BetMGM sportsbooks:
YELLAWOOD 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS
Chase Elliott 12/1 has a Talladega win but he probably should have five more wins on superspeedways. He has 27 starts on them with six top-fives and 330 laps led. He has great equipment always. He’s had five poles on them and three other front-row starts. At Daytona in August, he led five times for 31 laps but was involved in an accident and finished 29th. He was seventh at Talladega in April and 10th in the Daytona 500. But he also won at Atlanta for the first time, his home track, leading a race-high 96 laps while using the superspeedway race package like Daytona and Talladega. He’s sitting seventh in playoff points and he’s got a fear of messing stuff up, but I think he’ll be fine. Caesars has him at 13-to-1 odds. I think he’s the driver to beat.
"It’s obviously not an ideal situation to be where we’re at in the points heading into Talladega, but it is what it is,” Elliott said. “I’ve said for years that no one is safe in these playoffs. We’ve been in similar situations in the past, so we know what we need to do these next two weeks to put ourselves in a good position to advance. I know we’re fully capable of getting the job done. We’ve proven it time and time again."
First of all, Joey Logano 12/1 Team Penske and Team Penske wins these superspeedway races a bunch since Rusty Wallace retired. He’s got four wins in 55 starts on superspeedways with 15 top-fives and 651 laps led. The NextGen car didn’t produce this season as he had in the past, but he’s always a factor. He understands the draft and he’s got lots of friends out there that trust him to roll on a giddy-up move onto a new line to the front. He’s second in points so I don’t expect many daring moves, but once he gets involved he’ll be his normal self which sometimes gets him in trouble in these races. Sometimes wrecking his own teammates late in the race.
I saw Ross Chastain 12/1 at 15-to-1 to win at Caesars so check that out if you like him. He won the April Talladega race and led just one lap, the last one. That was the old Chastain, brave and brash. That was the Chastain that chucked a watermelon after winning and gained all kinds of new fans. But the veterans put him in his place and he abided. Now he drives delicately and doesn’t tread on anyone. He’s almost corporate NASCAR worthy now. But he’s second in points and still eligible for a title. I think he waits out the Big One and puts himself in a position to win late. Come on watermelon sugar!
Ryan Blaney 12/1 is a two-time winner at Talladega and he’s comfortably sitting fourth in points. Why not just win the race and win the championship? He still has yet to win a points-paying race this season, although he did win the $1 million prize for winning the non-points All-Star Race. Team Penske equipment is always a positive.
Denny Hamlin 14/1 is the best on superspeedways. He sees the air before the air sees itself. He knows where the air is going and uses it to move where he needs to get more speed out of it. It’s magical and it's how he won three Daytona 500s. He has five superspeedway wins and 20 top-fives with 1,052 laps led. NASCAR should check him for illegal wizardry. Best of all, this BetMGM price is the highest I’ve seen on him in superspeedway races since he won his first Daytona 500. Yes, I’m down.
“It’s really tough because you can’t predict when a wreck is going to happen,” Hamlin said about Talladega approach. “As a driver, you start to feel the intensity of the pack picking up and you start to see people making aggressive moves. You just have to make a judgement call on whether you want to be a part of it at that time. What’s difficult about the Next Gen car is that you can’t go from the back of the pack to the front like you used to be able to. It’s pretty much a two-lane road and you have to pick one lane or the other. No matter what, with these cars having so much drag on them, you can’t get the third lane going. That used to be the avenue to go from the back to the front, so you used to be able to lay back and make your charge whenever you wanted to. Now, you have to try to stay up front and that’s what we’ll try to do, but you ultimately put yourself at risk of getting in a wreck.”
In 32 superspeedway races Kyle Larson 14/1 has one top-five and it came in April at Talladega with fourth place after leading 32 laps. This type of racing has never been his thing. The cars are all bunched up and he looks uncomfortable in them. But this is the playoffs. Work through the rough patches and find a way. I wonder if he’ll play it safe here on such a volatile track.
"I don’t think so just because there’s so many stage points on the line,” Larson said. “Yes, there might be a couple that do that, but I feel like you typically don’t see that. I think there’s so many stage points on the line that if you can get those points then, even if you wreck, you’ll have a decent points day out of it. I see everybody racing pretty hard."
William Byron's 14/1 best Talladega finish was runner-up last season and in 2020 he was fourth. He also won at Daytona in 2020. He’s good and has good enough equipment to win, but he’s got other issues. And it’s not NASCAR fining him or taking points away after his shenanigans at Texas last week. A bet on Byron means you have to trust Denny Hamlin to not exact revenge and Talladega is so easy to make a deliberate punt look like a mistake or just one of those racing things. I think he’s toxic this week with a big red siren saying stay away from the bet windows. I might take a shot at 28-to-1, though.
"Racing at Talladega is more about how well you can push someone and how well your car can receive a push,” Byron said. “It’s a track where you really have to be able to work with other cars to not only get to the front but also stay up there. We were running up front in the spring race and lost our help in the end to stay up front, unfortunately. Once you get back in traffic, it’s a lot harder to make your way forward. With how close the points are right now, I think stage points are going to be even more crucial Sunday than they normally are in this race. With everyone trying to get every point they can, you don’t want to put yourself at risk of not finishing the race either just trying to get a stage point. It’s a fine balance for sure."
YELLAWOOD 500 BETTING RESOURCES
Date: Sunday, October 2, 2022
Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
Location: Lincoln, Alabama
Distance: 500 miles
Laps: 188
Network-Time: NBC - 2:00 p.m.
Defending Champion: Bubba Wallace
The only tracks you should bet Austin Cindric 16/1 are on superspeedways and road courses so that means I’m betting him the next two weeks. I just have to find better prices. The rookie burst onto the scene with a Daytona 500 win and then was third at Daytona last month. He also was third at Atlanta using the superspeedway package. Team Penske equipment is so good on these tracks.
Shop around for the best odds, but Bubba Wallace 16/1 is someone you should have in your betting portfolio this week. BetMGM might have the best odds so far from what I’ve seen. He won this race last season for his first Cup win. He started off this season with a runner-up in the Daytona 500. He was good on superspeedways before getting great equipment and now he’s got two Cup wins. He’s proved himself, now he belongs. Now he has swagger and is at a confidence level he’s never been at. He’s going to come in saying he’s going to win and I believe him.
READ MORE HERE....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
No comments:
Post a Comment