The NextGen car makes its first visit to New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend in Sunday’s Ambetter 301, but we’ve got lots of data from similar tracks that should help us find a winner.
New Hampshire's flat 1-mile paperclip layout requires a similar set-up as the flat tracks at Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, and St. Louis so those that did well on those four should have an edge this weekend which begins with Saturday afternoon practice and qualifying.
Past New Hampshire results help show what drivers like the layout, who excels, and who doesn’t, but this darn new car has thrown a monkey wrench into past successful handicapping strategies. But the results from the four similar tracks tell us who has what and the Saturday practice session would confirm it or also reveal a couple of drivers to also consider.
This race will be the 20th of 36 on the season with 13 different winners so far. Chase Elliott leads the series with three wins after winning at his home track in Atlanta last week and four others have two wins. To show how great the parity is and what the new car has done, consider that eight winners from last season are still looking for their first 2022 win.
New Hampshire’s Magic Mile made its NASCAR Cup debut in 1993 with Rusty Wallace winning and was given two dates a season in 1997 and then had one of its dates removed after the 2017 season. The last four seasons have been one race a season and all four have been won by a Ford driver.
AMBETTER 301 PICKS & PREDICTIONS
Caesars opened Kyle Busch +700 and he was the first driver bet substantially and now he’s the favorite, and for good reason. He has six Xfinity Series wins at NHMS, three Truck Series wins, and three Cup Series win while also leading all active drivers with 1,134 laps led.
“Loudon is a Martinsville-like short track, but it’s just over a mile,” Busch said. “It’s a little more spread out, but there’s some rooting and gouging going on because it’s a one-lane track and everybody fights for that particular groove. We struggled at Phoenix and Martinsville earlier in the year and those tracks are in the same family as Loudon. But another similar track is Gateway, and I felt like we were really good there and made a lot of gains, so hoping we can continue that this weekend at Loudon with our DEWALT Camry TRD. Hope we can run similar to Gateway and get us one spot better than we did there.”
Gateway or St. Louis (nobody wants to call it by its real name) is the track I like to compare the most for this race because it’s the last race used funneling all the learned new car data from Phoenix, Richmond, and Martinsville. Busch led a race-high 66 laps at St. Louis and was runner-up. He also has top-10s on the four similar tracks this season. He’s the driver to beat.
Ryan Blaney (6/1) finished seventh or better on the four similar tracks, twice leading the most laps, and three times finishing fourth. But he has no wins on the season. Sure he’s knocking on the door to a win but sometimes I think he’s too nice. He doesn’t want to ruffle any feathers and races clean, but to win, you have to make choices. He's leading too many laps not to win. The funniest thing is Caesars making him such a big favorite and tightening the odds as if Blaney is a risky bet each week and everyone is betting him. They’re not betting him because we all know he won’t do anything for a win.
AMBETTER 301 BETTING RESOURCES
- Date: Sunday, July 17, 2022
- Venue: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
- Location: Loudon, New Hampshire
- Distance: 310 miles
- Laps: 301
- Network-Time: USA - 3:00 p.m. ET
- Defending Champion: Aric Almirola
Chase Elliott (7/1) has starts at NHMS, one top-five, and a 16th-place average finish. More importantly, this season his best on the four similar tracks was 10th at Martinsville where he also led 185 laps. Three wins on the season, but his team hasn’t got the flat tracks figured out yet.
Joey Logano (7/1) won his first career Cup race at NHMS and won again in 2014, but I like him here because of his St, Louis win and he also was runner-up at Martinsville. He’ll be racing for the win late in the race.
Denny Hamlin's (9/1) 9.6 average finish at NHMS is the best among active drivers. He has three wins and 11 top-fives, but that was the past. His Richmond win should carry some weight as a candidate to win but he led only five laps and won on pit strategy. Blaney led 128 laps in that race. At St. Louis, Martinsville, and Phoenix, Hamlin was terrible and he doesn’t sound too confident about his team fixing the issue.
“New Hampshire is a great track overall. I expect that we’ll be shifting quite a bit this weekend, so I’m not sure what that will entail for the race,” Hamlin said. “I have always felt like oval racing was momentum based and that’s how it should be. But we’ll play within the rules we’re dealt and make the most of this weekend. Our FedEx team has been working very hard to make gains on tracks like this, so it will be good to see where we’re at now that we’re halfway through the season.”
Martin Truex, Jr. (9/1) is still searching for his first win of the season. Memo to Ceasars: drivers that have not won a race after 19 races should not be offered at single-digit odds. He’s led 744 laps at NHMS and won a couple of lower level races there, but no Cup wins. I like how he ran at St. Louis finishing sixth after leading 42 laps and the trend should follow here.
“I feel like you can take something from Phoenix and also from St. Louis as far as learning this new car and figuring out what it takes to get around these flatter, shorter tracks,” Truex said. “It feels like we are getting closer. Loudon is obviously different, but generally if you have a good short-track package, you can kind of find the setup on all three of those tracks. We’re looking forward to big things in Loudon with our Interstate Batteries Camry.”
AMBETTER 301 BETTING ANALYSIS
#20 Christopher Bell (15/1) - I like this guy this week and his best performance on the four similar tracks was finished sixth at Richmond after leading 63 laps and a ninth at St. Louis.
“With the Playoff picture being as tight as it is, every point matters,” Bell said. “Loudon is a great track for us and we need a good showing. I’m ready to see what we can do this weekend.”
The JGR cars collectively haven’t been good on the flat tracks, but Bell was runner-up at NHMS last season and also won the last three Xfinity Series races there, so I’m buying.
#8 Tyler Reddick (20/1) - He’s all set with the Jordan/Hamlin team in 2024 and he’s got a spot in the playoffs by winning at Road America so he can relax and win just for fun now. He’s got no pressure and he was third at Phoenix in March.
#45 Kurt Busch (25/1) - Yes, I like this price by Caesars. Busch has always been good at NHMS beginning with a 2000 Truck Series win. He has three Cup wins there, but I bet him entirely for the car that his team produced at similar tracks. He was fifth at Phoenix, sixth at Martinsville, and third at St. Louis.
#10 Aric Almirola (25/1) - He won this race last season and we saw a nice fifth-place finish at St. Louis last month and that track is very relatable to this week as he explains.
“Turns three and four at Gateway are very similar to the turns at Loudon,” Almirola said. “There are some aspects unique to Loudon, but it’s still a short track. I think there are some things from a confidence level and comfortability because I enjoy that style of racetrack. It fits my driving style. I’ve always run well at Loudon. I remember the first time I got in Jimmie Johnson’s Cup car when I was there on baby watch. I got in his car on Saturday morning for practice and actually went faster than he did, and that was a big boost of confidence for me. That practice session really changed the course of my career. It opened the eyes to a lot of general managers and team owners. I think it changed everyone’s mind. It happened quickly after that. Dale Jr. called and asked if I would drive the No. 88 in the (NASCAR Xfinity Series) and that led to an opportunity at Richard Petty Motorsports.”
#99 Daniel Suarez (25/1) - He’s priced as if this is a road course. He was ninth at Phoenix and then had no top-15s in any of the other three similar tracks. I want to be an Amigo in his posse, but I need much better odds to bet him, like twice as much to bait me.
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