NASCAR GOODYEAR 400 ANALYSIS
It’s a throwback weekend at Darlington Raceway’s 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval with all the NASCAR Cup cars featuring retro paint schemes. And you can’t get more throwback than using the historic South Carolina raceway that’s been active since 1950.
GOODYEAR 400 BETTING RESOURCES
- Date: Sunday, May 9, 2021
- TV-Time: FS1, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Darlington Raceway
- Location: Darlington, South Carolina
- Distance: 400.238 miles, 293 laps
- Defending Champion: Denny Hamlin
The sponsor of the race couldn’t be more appropriate this week. Sunday's Cup race is called the Goodyear 400, and tires will be the story of the race because no asphalt in the series wears out tires as much.
Tires will be more important this week than fuel. Instead of the normal fuel window we all calculate between pit stops, we’ll be talking about a shorter time frame with a tire window. Four fresh tires will be everything, all race long. No two-tire stops happening here.
GOODYEAR 400 ODDS ANALYSIS
I was shocked to see Kyle Larson open at William Hill sportsbook as the 4-to-1 favorite to win and then even further shocked that the SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas opened Larson as the 7-to-2 favorite. Sure Larson has three recent finishes of third or better, but he’s never won at Darlington.
What’s the deal? They had Joey Logano at obscenely high 18-to-1 odds also. Wait, could it be they think this race will be run with teams using the 550 race package as they have the last two seasons?
“Yes, when I set the numbers I thought they were running the 550 package, not the 750 package,” said SuperBook VP of risk management Ed Salmons. “I dropped Logano down to 12-to-1 and shuffled odds up high on drivers like (William) Byron and (Alex) Bowman and a few others to get back to our desired theoretic hold (usually 25%).”
But Salmons didn’t move the Larson odds despite only one top-five in five races using the 750 HP package this season.
“Larson has an amazing history at Darlington,” he said. “I’d say between Darlington and Homestead, those are his best tracks because he’s able to ride around the top line with more success than other drivers. In 2018, he won the first two stages, led 284 laps, and had an average running position of first-place.”
GOODYEAR 400 CONTENDERS
- Kyle Larson +400
- Denny Hamlin +600
- Kevin Harvick +700
- Martin Truex Jr. +750
- Kyle Busch +800
- Brad Keselowski +900
- More NASCAR Futures
- (Odds Subject to Change)
LOBBYING FOR LARSON?
Larson has finished third or better in three of his last four at Darlington and led laps in his last five races there. He was suspended last season so he missed all three Darlington races but his crew chief Cliff Daniels is ready for the challenge this week.
“There are some notes from last year we’re going to try to pull from, but it’s so different with the aero and horsepower package,” Daniels said. “All three races last year were the high drag, high downforce, and low horsepower package. Coming back this weekend with no practice and the low downforce-high horsepower package is a completely different ballgame.
“There’s a fine balance between the drivability and turn your look for at Darlington that we’re hoping to achieve. We’ve dug into some historical notes and the trends from 2018, which is the last time we raced there with this aero and power package. It’s such a long race that we’ll just have to tune on the car as we progress through it.”
So the question here is do we trust a crew chief to set up a car perfect for Larson’s skills and throw out his previous five races using it this season? He was fifth at Martinsville and seventh at Phoenix but didn’t fare well in the Daytona road course race, the Bristol Dirt Race he was favored in, or at Richmond.
I can’t throw those races away. But they happened and were using the same race package as this week. I’ve come to the conclusion I want nothing to do with Larson in any betting equation, and out of respect for his skills at Darlington, I won’t be betting against him in match-ups. No thank you 4-to-1 odds. The 550 HP package, yes, he’s the best, he leads the most laps, and he won at Las Vegas with it.
Denny Hamlin looks to defend his Darlington Raceway title this weekend, winning the circuit on May 20 of 2020. (AP)
HANDICAPPING NASCAR AT DARLINGTON
Only six active drivers have won at Darlington and two of them, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, have each won three times.
It was an emotional time for the fans and drivers alike because we were all in the same boat not knowing what the future held for all of us. Harvick holds that moment dear to his heart.
But in 2021 Harvick is still looking for his first win after winning nine times last season. So is Hamlin who won seven races and so is defending Cup Champion Chase Elliott who won five races. 10 different drivers have already won through 11 races.
Chase Elliott (10/1) probably should have won twice at Darlington last season but was forced into accidents. He won five races last season using the 750 HP package and was runner-up at Martinsville and fifth at Phoenix with it this season. He’s someone to consider for a win this week.
BUYING HAMLIN ON SUNDAY
Hamlin falls in line as a good bet this week because he’s got the best of all worlds going for him which is why he is the second betting favorite at 9-to-2 odds. First off, the Lady in Black (nickname for Darlington) loves Hamlin.
They call Darlington ‘Too Tough to Tame” but that doesn’t apply to Hamlin. In 17 starts he’s averaged a 7.5 finish with three wins, nine top-fives, and 13 top-10s while leading 593 laps. The Lady has a crush on Hamlin which has also enabled him to win five Xfinity Series races there, including a weekend sweep in both series in 2010 and 2017.
What Larson lacks as the favorite, Hamlin has covered 100%. In five races this season using the 750 HP package, he’s been third or better in all five with his last race at Richmond being his best with a runner-up.
READ MORE HERE.....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
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