News and notes from each week of NASCAR racing using a Las Vegas oddsmaking perspective
Thursday, February 25, 2021
Alex Bowman is 22/1 to win 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead
1.5-MILE STATS: In 60 starts on 1.5-mile tracks, Alex Bowman has six top-five finishes, 15 top-10s and one win. The Ally-sponsored driver is tied with Martin Truex Jr. for the most top-10 finishes (four) in the last four events on 1.5-mile tracks, which is the longest active streak. Bowman also has finished inside the top five in the last three races on 1.5-milers, which is also the longest current streak. The 27-year-old driver’s first NASCAR Cup Series win came in 2019 at the 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway after leading 88 laps. Bowman led 269 laps on intermediate tracks last season, which is the sixth most among active drivers. He captured three stage wins at these venues in 2020, the third-most behind Denny Hamlin and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott.
TOP-10 FINISH: On Sunday, Bowman and the No. 48 Ally team captured their first top-10 finish of the 2021 season after crossing the line 10th at the DAYTONA Road Course. After rolling off 36th, Bowman reported that his Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE was tight in the bus stop on Lap 11. Through a series of cautions and pit stops, the Ally team made improvements to the car and Bowman was running 17th with 10 laps to go in the event. With his eyes focused out front, the Ally driver advanced seven positions by the end of the 70-lap event. This is Bowman’s first top-10 finish on the DAYTONA Road Course in a points-paying event.
WELCOME TO MIAMI: Bowman will make his seventh Homestead-Miami Speedway start in the NASCAR Cup Series on Sunday. The Tucson, Arizona, native’s best finish of ninth came in the November 2019 event after starting 12th. Bowman has one start in the NASCAR Xfinity Series at the 1.5-mile Florida track. In 2016, he drove the No. 88 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports and brought home a 14th-place finish after qualifying eighth.
IVES AT HOMESTEAD: Greg Ives will call the shots from the pit box at Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend for the seventh time in his NASCAR Cup Series career. The Bark River, Michigan, native’s best finish at the track came in 2019 when the team crossed the line in ninth after qualifying 12th. Ives’ résumé includes two starts in the Xfinity Series at the 1.5-mile track, where his best finish of 17th came in 2014 with Elliott. From 2006-2012, Ives was a race engineer for the No. 48 Chevrolet driven by seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson. He was part of two pole awards, two top-five results and four top-10s at Homestead with the seven-time champion. Ives was on hand for five NASCAR Cup Series championship title wins at the Florida venue with Johnson during that span.
HELLO, WORLD: On Monday, No. 48 fueler Jacob Conley and wife Claire welcomed twin boys into the world. At 11:40 p.m. and 11:43 p.m. ET, Lucas and Bennett Conley were born and joined their 22-month-old sister Nora. The new family of five is doing well, and Jacob will compete with the No. 48 team this weekend at Homestead.
CLOSE TO HOME: No. 48 Ally team tire specialist Carl Haag grew up not too far from Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 34-year-old grew up in Port St. Lucie, Florida, and attended Treasure Coast High School. Haag has been in the motor sports industry for six years and has worked with Daytona prototype international cars, in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and with Ives and Bowman for the past two seasons.
Alex Bowman, driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE, on the team’s 1.5-mile program: “Getting a top-10 finish last week on the DAYTONA Road Course was good redemption from the week prior. Greg (Ives) and the No. 48 Ally team made great adjustments on pit road and put us in a good position at the end for a solid finish. Going to Homestead this weekend gives us a good opportunity to show what our 1.5-mile program looks like this season. We had a really solid end to the 2020 season, and I know that we will have a fast Ally Camaro this weekend.”
Greg Ives, crew chief of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE, on returning to Homestead: “We are really looking forward to getting back to Homestead. We have a strong 550 (horsepower) program at Hendrick Motorsports and that showed at the end of last year. We’re looking forward to getting to the track and having another solid race. Knowing that the start of the season didn’t go our way in the DAYTONA 500, we just need to crawl back to where we need to be.”
Ives on working the high line at Homestead: “I expect the high line to be very inviting at Homestead, especially as the run goes on. The car gets a little snug and you can get the air cushion on the wall. The later start is going to potentially have the sun going down and the grip going up. You are going to have to be able to rip the bottom to slingshot. It has the tendency to widen out the groove a lot once grip comes into the track. It’s going to be a fun race, and tire strategy is definitely going to come into play.”
Micah Roberts' take on Bowman at Homestead
1st #48 Alex Bowman (22/1) - His best finish at Homestead was ninth in 2019, but I’ve made him my top wagering in my betting equation this week because of the momentum he was gaining on this race package last season when he closed out with top-fives in his last three starts on 1.5s. We haven’t seen these cars yet this season and we won’t see them practice either, but I’m taking a shot with him. Just a coincidence, but last season he won at Fontana using this race package in what was also the third race of the season as this week is.
Homestead-Miami Betting Preview: 2021 Dixie Vodka 400
DIXIE VODKA 400 PICKS
Venue: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Location: Homestead, Florida
Television-Time: FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET
PRESS THE FIRST-TIMERS?
First-time Cup winners have won the first two races of the 2021 NASCAR Cup season for the first time since 1950 and there are few candidates with a legitimate shot at making it three straight in Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway’s high-banked 1.5-mile paper-clip layout.
There are 16 of the 38 drivers entered this week looking for their first Cup win and the ones that stand out the most are drivers with past victories at Homestead in the Xfinity and Truck Series.
How about rookie Chase Briscoe in his Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 who won in Xfinity last season while also winning in the Trucks in 2017?
He’s being offered at 60-to-1 odds.
His teammate Cole Custer won at Kentucky last season as a rookie for his first Cup win and is being offered at 100-to-1 odds. Briscoe obviously has the oddsmakers' attention.
Bubba Wallace won a Truck race at Homestead in 2014 and we get to see how the No. 23 responds with the 550 horsepower package after seeing the other two packages first to start the season.
I expect the car to be competitive and very similar to a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.
But I think the best shot at winning from a first-timer is Tyler Reddick in the Richard Childress Racing No. 8 Chevrolet who won back-to-back Homestead races in the Xfinity Series in 2018 and 2019. In his first Cup start there last season he finished fourth after leading three laps.
The oddsmakers at William Hill opened Reddick at 25-to-1 and opened his teammate Austin Dillon at 60-to-1.
Check around for better odds at other sportsbooks because I’m sure someone in charge of creating NASCAR odds fell asleep on Reddick and Briscoe.
I’ll have a small bet on Reddick but I don’t believe we’ll have a third straight race with a first-time winner. I think it’ll be one of the well-known names in NASCAR to win, or at least I hope.
Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Two new names already listed on this season’s Playoff picture, who’s next?
Who is next up to win for first time? |
Two drivers looking for their first win this season, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, are the only two drivers entered this weekend that have won in all three NASCAR national series at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Busch has scored two wins (2015, 2019) in the NASCAR Cup Series, two in the NASCAR Xfinity Series (2009, 2010) and three in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (2010, 2013, 2020). Harvick has collected one victory in each series (Cup 2014, Xfinity 2004, Truck 2009). In last season’s Homestead Cup race, Busch finished posted his ninth career top-10 finishes (sixth) at the track and Harvick finished 26th, his first finish outside the top-10 at the 1.5-mile track since 2007 (19th).
Busch’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Denny Hamlin is the early favorite for this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The Chesterfield, Virginia native is tied with Greg Biffle and NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart for the series-most wins with three each. Plus, he is the defending winner of this race. He took last season’s checkered flag from the pole after leading a race-high 137 laps. In total, Hamlin has made 16 series starts at Homestead-Miami posting three wins, five top fives and 11 top 10s.
The next most recent winner in the NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami was Team Penske’s Joe Logano, who took home the series title after winning the 2018 season finale. Logano has made 12 starts at the South Florida track posting one win, four top fives and six top 10s. The 30-year-old, Logano, finished 27th in the Homestead-Miami race last season, his first finish outside the top-10 since 2014 (16th).
Like Logano, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. won the 2017 season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway with Furniture Row Racing and also collected a series title in the process. Truex finished 12th in last year’s Homestead-Miami race, breaking a streak of 1-2 finishes dating back to 2017 (2017 first-place; 2018 and 2019 runner-up finishes). In 16 starts at Homestead, Truex posted one win, six top fives and 10 top 10s.
The sixth active driver to win at Homestead-Miami Speedway is Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kurt Busch, who won back in 2002 driving for Roush Fenway Racing. In total, Busch has made 20 series starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway putting up one win, four top fives and seven top 10s. He finished 17th in last season’s event.
Seven additional NASCAR Cup Series drivers entered this weekend have won at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the NASCAR Xfinity Series; including Brad Keselowski (two wins: 2011, 2013), Chase Briscoe (2020), Tyler Reddick (2019, 2018), Cole Custer (2017), Daniel Suarez (2016), Kyle Larson (2015) and Ryan Newman (2005). Briscoe is the only driver of the seven to win at Homestead in both the NASCAR Xfinity Series (2020) and the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (2017).
Two additional NASCAR Cup Series drivers entered this weekend have won at Homestead-Miami Speedway solely in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series – William Byron (2016) and Bubba Wallace (2014).
NASCAR Cup Series Driver Playoff Outlook Following Race No. 2 of 36 | |||||||
Rank | Driver | Points | Starts | Race Wins | Stage Wins | Playoff Pts | Pts From Cutoff |
1 | Christopher Bell | 82 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | In On Wins |
2 | Michael McDowell | 75 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
3 | Denny Hamlin | 104 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 69 |
4 | Joey Logano | 92 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57 |
5 | Kevin Harvick | 83 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
6 | Chase Elliott | 79 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 44 |
7 | * Ryan Preece | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
8 | Kurt Busch | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
9 | Austin Dillon | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
10 | Brad Keselowski | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
11 | Cole Custer | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
12 | Kyle Larson | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
13 | Bubba Wallace | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
14 | Martin Truex Jr. | 47 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
15 | Corey LaJoie | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
17 | Kyle Busch | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
18 | Chris Buescher | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
19 | Ryan Blaney | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
20 | Ross Chastain | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
Third Times The Charm: Over 70 years since Cup has seen three consecutive first-time winners
The inaugural NASCAR Cup Series season holds the record for the most consecutive first-winners to start the season with five.
1949 NASCAR Cup Series Consecutive First-Time Winners
Series | Date | Track | First-Time Winners | Season | Race No. |
Cup | Sunday, June 19, 1949 | Charlotte (Old) | Jim Roper | 1949 | 1 |
Cup | Sunday, July 10, 1949 | Daytona B&R | Red Byron | 1949 | 2 |
Cup | Sunday, August 7, 1949 | Occoneechee | Bob Flock | 1949 | 3 |
Cup | Sunday, September 11, 1949 | Langhorne | Curtis Turner | 1949 | 4 |
Cup | Sunday, September 18, 1949 | Hamburg | Jack White | 1949 | 5 |
Three or more consecutive first-time winners has only happened three times in the NASCAR Cup Series. The first, was the five consecutive first-time winners in 1949. The other two times it occurred was in 1950.
1950 NASCAR Cup Series Consecutive First-Time Winners
Series | Date | Track | First-Time Winners | Season | Race No. |
Cup | Tuesday, May 30, 1950 | Canfield | Bill Rexford | 1950 | 5 |
Cup | Sunday, June 18, 1950 | Vernon | Bill Blair | 1950 | 6 |
Cup | Sunday, June 25, 1950 | Dayton | Jimmy Florian | 1950 | 7 |
Cup | Monday, September 4, 1950 | Darlington | Johnny Mantz | 1950 | 13 |
Cup | Sunday, September 17, 1950 | Langhorne | Fonty Flock | 1950 | 14 |
Cup | Sunday, September 24, 1950 | North Wilkesboro | Leon Sales | 1950 | 15 |
This season, Front Row Motorsport’s driver Michael McDowell grabbed his first-career win at Daytona International Speedway in the Daytona 500. He is the eighth different driver to win their first-career race in the Daytona 500. McDowell got the win in his 358th start, the second largest amount of starts before a first Cup win behind Michael Waltrip’s 463.
Then the following week at the DAYTONA Road Course, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell led just five laps en route to his first-career NASCAR Cup Series victory in just his second season at the premier level.
This weekend, 16 of the 38 drivers entered at Homestead-Miami Speedway are looking for their first NASCAR Cup Series career victory. Six former NASCAR Cup Series Homestead-Miami Speedway winners are entered this weekend, led by Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin with three victories; followed by his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch (two wins) and Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. each with one win.
Denny Hamlin is 9/2 favorite to win fourth time at Homestead
Denny Hamlin won for the third time at Homestead in 2020. |
Denny Hamlin
#11 FedEx Small Business Grant Contest Toyota
Joe Gibbs Racing
Race Info:
Race: Dixie Vodka 400
Date/Time: Sunday, Feb. 28/ 3:30 p.m. ET
Race Distance: 267 laps/400.5 miles
Track Shape: Oval
Track Length: 1.5 miles
Banking: 18-20 degrees
2020 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Express Notes:
Press Kit: Download the 2021 FedEx Racing press materials at www.fedexracing.com/presskit, including bios for Denny Hamlin, Chris Gabehart and Joe Gibbs Racing leadership, program highlights and statistics.
Daytona Road Course Recap: Hamlin and the FedEx Racing team started the 253-mile event from the fourth spot and hung around in the top five for much of the afternoon, finishing Stage 1 in third and moving out front to take the Stage 2 win. The 70-lap race was interrupted by eight caution flags – including one for a brief rain shower – which made pit strategy a significant factor. The team opted to make a final pit stop for fresh tires under caution on Lap 57, putting Hamlin in 18th for the ensuing restart. He used the remaining 12 green-flag laps to pick off spots on the leaderboard, making his way up to third before the checkered flag flew. Ahead of him, Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell passed Joey Logano with two laps to go to earn his first Cup career win.
Homestead-Miami Outlook: The 2021 NASCAR series returns to Homestead, Fla., this weekend for the running of the Dixie Vodka 400. Hamlin and team will look to repeat their success from a year ago as returning race winners. In 16 career races at Homestead, Hamlin has finished in the top-5 five times while capturing three victories.
FedEx Small Business Grant Contest Toyota: For the Homestead race, the #11 team will run a special paint scheme to promote the FedEx Small Business Grant contest. The grant contest awards 12 small businesses with grants to help them grow their business, with the grand prize winner receiving a $50,000 grant. The 2020 grand-prize winner, Access Trax, will be featured as part of the paint scheme for this weekend’s race. The contest entry period is open now through March 9 with more information at fedex.com/grantcontest.
Hamlin Statistics:
Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Races: 16
Wins: 3
Top-5: 5
Top-10: 11
Laps Led: 393
Avg. Start: 17.5
Avg. Finish: 9.9
Hamlin Conversation – Homestead-Miami:
After two strong performances so far this season, how are you feeling heading into Homestead, a track where you won last year?
“We feel good in our efforts through the first two races of the season. Obviously, we wish we could have come out with a victory at either of the Daytona races, but we still had good performances. We’re confident in how we’ll run this weekend and hopefully have a repeat of last year.”
You’re running a special paint scheme this weekend. Can you tell us a little more about it and what it means to you?
“For the Homestead race, we’ll be running a special paint scheme to promote the FedEx Small Business Grant contest. My family has a background in small business, where I grew up working with my dad and that helped kick off my racing career, so I can relate to the small business mentality. I recently got to meet last year’s grand-prize winner, Kelly Twichel of Access Trax, to unveil the new paint scheme together and to hear how the grant helped her business over the last year. We’ll be running with their logo on our car this weekend, and I’ll be racing for all small businesses and hopefully come out with a win.”