Daytona Betting Preview: 2019 Daytona 500

The low-line wasn't attractive in Clash, like here in July.

Jimmie Johnson's win last week at the Clash gave us all kinds of information to help us handicap Sunday's 61st running of the Daytona 500, but ultimately what it still comes down in restrictor-plate racing is needing a lot of luck to cash. This version of plate racing is similar to the past few seasons with a few subtle differences.

The first thing to recognize is the new Mustang GT body is almost as good as the Fusion body that has dominated plate races for Ford over the past four seasons. The Penske Fords, including Paul Menard in the No. 21, dominated the Clash. Menard led 51 of the 59 laps in the Clash and no one could make the pass so Johnson forced the issue, Menard tried to block and it caused 14 of the 20 cars on the track to pile-up. But those are the things drivers have to do to win because passing is so hard.

“Yeah, I think so," Ricky Stenhouse Jr. said Wednesday about needing to be aggressive to win. "I think plate racing is all about aggressiveness now and making the right moves and your spotter giving you that information of when to move down, which lane is coming. I feel like that communication between you and your spotter is getting more and more important.

"I feel like the races that we won in 2017 if it wasn’t for our spotter, there was no way I would have made some of the correct moves to get to the front or stay in the front, so it’s just part of it. It’s fun, but it’s also I don’t want to say dangerous, but you’re living on the edge as far as running into people, cutting it too close, so it’s just part of it.”

Both of Stenhouse's two career wins came in plate races and his Roush Fenway Racing No. 17 has the same Roush-Yates engines as Team Penske. He's 14-to-1 to win Sunday. The best thing about betting on Stenhouse is that he doesn't care who he rattles. His only goal is to win and he knows his best four chances are each of the plate races so this race is magnified for him to make something happen.

Passing is tough and at no time during the Clash did we see the low-line threaten the freight train up top on the high line. My hope Sunday is that we'll see some of the top teams figure things out down low so it's not just one single file line of nothing for 197 laps and then we have a couple spectacular wrecks late with drivers up front trying to make that winning move.

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