Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Kansas Betting Preview: 2018 Hollywood Casino 400

Kyle Larson led the most laps (101) in May Kansas race.
Hello cookie-cutter Kansas, here we come loaded with NASCAR Playoff drama as four more drivers will get chopped from championship contention this weekend. Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway will be the ninth race of the season on a 1.5-mile track and second visit to Kansas.

Only two drivers Aric Almirola and Chase Elliott, are sure to advance by virtue of winning the first two races in the second round, while Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have almost enough points to advance without needing a strong performance Sunday.

“We’ve obviously not had the round we wanted, but we had some similar issues in this round last year," said Kyle Busch. "If we didn’t have those bonus points, this weekend might look a lot different heading into the race. So I’m thankful that the system is in place that rewards the good runs we had during the regular season. We’ll just have to do what we’ve been doing all year and see where that puts us, and if we have a shot to go for the win, then we’ll obviously try to do that, as well, like we do every week with our M&M’S Halloween scheme."

Busch and Harvick have been the dominators all season long with seven wins each, and three each between the eight races run on 1.5-mile tracks so far, including Harvick's win at Kansas on May 12.

The Cup Series has tested at Kansas Speedway since the last race. There was a two-day session, Sept. 24-25, where I'm sure we'll see effects of it on display Sunday.

“At Kansas, we had a great test," said Chase Elliott crew chief Alan Gustafson. "So, we’re going to go there and work on our mile-and-a-half program and try hard to win that race. I think getting as many points as we can and closing the gap to the guys in front of us will help significantly.”

Lots of strategies will be happening among the 12 drivers still in championship contention. Others like Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin are just looking to get their first win of the season to see their win streaks stay active. Both have won at least one race a season since their rookie years.

It's a good idea to scan over the May 12 Kansas box score and see that following Harvick was Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, and Hamlin rounding out the top-five with Larson leading the most laps (101), but the best advice I can offer is to review what happened at Las Vegas to kick off the Playoffs because it's more recent and relevant to how the cars are likely to run this weekend.

We're in a completely different place from May 12 to now. At the time, I think I was whining weekly about the Big-2 of Harvick and Busch winning every weekend and dominating on the 1.5-mile cookie cutters which they combined to win the first six. But then at the halfway point of the season at Daytona, suddenly the rest of the series caught up to the Big-2 and we added Truex to the mix and called them the Big-3. Erik Jones and Chase Elliott would both win their first career Cup race, Kurt Busch and Ryan Blaney would get their first wins of the season and Brad Keselowski would win three straight races culminating with a Las Vegas win Sept. 16.

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