News and notes from each week of NASCAR racing using a Las Vegas oddsmaking perspective
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
Sunday, July 3, 2016
Brad Keselowski finally captures elusive Daytona victory
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| Brad Keselowski paid out at 15/1 odds at Las Vegas sports books. |
Keselowski has four career victories at Talladega Superspeedway, including a win there in May. But he could never pull it off at Daytona, at least not until Saturday night’s dominating run. He and his No. 2 Ford crew kept chipping away at it even after he had a disappointing run in the season-opening Daytona 500.
“I’ve doubted myself here,” said Keselowski, who had just three top-10 finishes in 14 previous starts at Daytona.
The win was the 100th for Team Penske.
“This is huge, I love this place,” Keselowski said.
The race was marred by a 22-car wreck that collected more than half the field. It really left only Kyle Busch as a legitimate contender, but he couldn’t make up ground after a restart for a two-lap shootout that sent it into overtime.
Read More Here......StarTribune.com
Coke Zero 400 results
Saturday, July 2, 2016
Coke Zero 400 Betting Notes
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| Kyle Busch is 12/1 this week at Daytona. |
Bettors have to tread lightly four times a season with their bankrolls in these races because driver ratings don’t hold true as they do at tracks such as Texas or Phoenix. Of the 40 drivers starting Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400 at Daytona’s massive 2.5-mile layout, 35 have a legitimate shot to win because of the volatile nature of the track and cars being so equal.
Sports books make major adjustments in weekly odds to reflect the equality of the cars. Three weeks ago at Michigan, Danica Patrick was 500-1. This week she’s 80-1 because two of her six career top-10 finishes are at Daytona. She has a chance to win Saturday, which can’t be said in the 32 races on other types of tracks.
Daytona has produced some long-shot winners. Aric Almirola won the rain-shortened summer race in 2014 for his first career victory and paid 60-1. David Ragan won his first career race in the summer of 2011 and paid 50-1. Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500 in his first attempt on the track and paid 100-1.
While the books chop down the odds on the long shots, they also offer more generous odds with drivers on the power teams. Denny Hamlin, who dominated Daytona Speedweeks in February with Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 wins, is 10-1 at the Westgate.
His Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch are each at 12-1, and Martin Truex Jr. is at 15-1. Four of the top five finishers in the Daytona 500 were JGR cars, and the Gibbs driver who didn’t make it, Matt Kenseth, led 40 of the final 41 laps and got shuffled to 14th on the last lap.
Those trends from February sound like results from JGR at Kentucky’s 1.5-mile layout, not a superspeedway where randomness is supposed to be the key. But also consider that within a second of Hamlin at the finish line were Kyle Larson (seventh) and Regan Smith (eighth), and less than two seconds behind were Almirola (12th) and Michael McDowell (15th).
JUNIOR FAVORED AGAIN
Because he is one of the best plate racers in NASCAR history and sports books know the public is going to bet on him, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is usually the favorite in any plate race.
He has won four times in 33 Daytona races and six at Talladega. He won this race last season and two of the past five. But he finished 36th at the 500 in February and last at Talladega in May.
Read More Betting Notes Here.....LVRJ.com
Micah Roberts' Sprint Cup Ratings for Daytona
Friday, July 1, 2016
Final Coke Zero 400 Driver Ratings
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| Greg Biffle starts from the pole Saturday night at Daytona. |
Micah Roberts' NASCAR Sprint Cup Ratings
Coke Zero 400
Daytona International Speedway
Saturday, July 2, 2016 - 5:08 pm (PT)
Rating Driver Odds Daytona '16* Talladega '16* Practice Qualified
1. Denny Hamlin 10/1 1st 31st 30th 9th
Only Bobby Allsion (1982) has won Unlimited, Daytona 500 and Coke Zero 400 in same year.
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr 9/2 36th 40th 32nd 16th
Four-time winner, including 2015; active leader with 13 top-fives, second with 593 laps led.
3. Kyle Busch 12/1 3rd 2nd 28th 3rd
2008 winner, the last season he won a restrictor-plate race. Crashed primary car in practice.
4. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 16th 22nd 19th 8th
Three-time winner, including 2013 sweep; 16.9 avg. finish, 11 top-fives and 278 laps led.
5. Joey Logano 10/1 6th 25th 8th 11th
2015 Daytona 500 winner, and won at Talladega in fall, his only two plate wins of career.
6. Kevin Harvick 10/1 4th 15th 33rd 21st
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2010; using '16 back-up chassis from Talladega/Daytona.
7. Matt Kenseth 12/1 14th 23rd 26th 7th
Two-time Daytona 500 winner; led 40 of final 41 laps in Feb. race, shuffled back on last lap.
8. Brad Keselowski 15/1 20th 1st 3rd 5th
No Daytona wins in 14 attempts, but has four wins at Talladega. Best finish: third in 2014.
9. Chase Elliott 15/1 37th 5th 25th 24th
Debut in Feb. wasn't so good, but leading 27 laps and finishing fifth at Talladega impressive.
10. Kurt Busch 15/1 10th 8th 20th 10th
The best plate racer without ever winning a plate races -- top-10 finish in his last four starts.
Note: Thursday's two scheduled practice sessions were cancelled due to rain and made up into one early Friday session.
* Results from the past two races using restrictor-plates to slow the cars down: Daytona (February, 2016) and Talladega (May, 2016).
Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook.
Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him on twitter @MicahRoberts7
Hamlin attempting to join Allison with Daytona Triple
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The kicker for Hamlin is that the Joe Gibbs Racing wheelman became the sixth driver to win the Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 in the same year. Check out the elite company Hamlin now keeps. Only Bobby Allison completed the Triple by winning the summer Firecracker 400 as well.
| NAME | YEAR |
|---|---|
| Bobby Allison | 1982 |
| Bill Elliott | 1987 |
| Dale Jarrett | 1996 |
| Jeff Gordon | 1997 |
| Dale Jarrett | 2000 |
| Denny Hamlin | 2016 |
Brian Scott fastest in final Coke Zero 400 practice, Kyle Busch wrecks car
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| Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch and Joey Logano at lone practice Friday. |
Kyle Busch was uninjured in a crash late in the session and will go to a backup car. A Goodyear official said that a cut right rear tire was the cause of Busch’s crash. Busch will go to a backup car.
Austin Dillon was next behind Scott on the speed chart with a lap of 199.344 mph. Next was Brad Keselowski (198.711 mph), Ryan Blaney (198.649) and David Gilliland(198.623).
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