Read my full Top-20 Prediction with detailed analysis on Sportsline.com.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking for Sunday’s Noco 400 with odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:
1 #24 William Byron (13/2) - The kid has it all with his car set-up and might win nine or 10 races this season. He led the most laps at Richmond and won at Phoenix in March – similar tracks and an ideal flat-track training process for Martinsville. He won this race last season after leading a race-high 212 laps. It’s the same car, with the same driver, and the same track.
2. #9 Chase Elliott (8/1) - I was excited about the idea of Josh Berry possibly starting and having a chance to win and nothing has changed with Elliott, one of the best at Martinsville. He finished 10th in both races last season but they weren’t indicative of how good he was. He led 56 laps and was runner-up in the first two stages in the fall and in the spring he led 185 laps and won both stages. In his last five Martinsville races he’s won five of the 10 stages. Runner-up twice, and fourth three times. It all started with his first Cup win there in 2020. (Josh Berry was originally expected to start in the No, 9)
3 #20 Christopher Bell (13/2) - He won the fall race at Martinville last season, the 500 lap race, as opposed to the 400 lap race in the spring – a tradition that started last season. He won the Dirt Race at Bistol last week and he was sixth at Phoenix and fourth at Richmond.
4 #12 Ryan Blaney (10/1) - He’s got the best track average finish (9.7) among all active drivers, including nine-time Martinsville winner Jimmie Johnson (9.9). Blaney has seven top-fives in 14 Cup starts.
5 #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1) - One of the best at Martinsville with five wins, a 10.5 average finish, 17 top-fives, and 2,190 laps led. The native Virginian grew up racing at Martinsville and he’s always had a knack for the flat shart tracks.
6 #22 Joey Logano (10/1) - He’s had a top-10 in his last seven Martinsville starts and nine of his last 10 as well. He dominated in the fall of 2018 leading a race-high 309 laps.
7 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (13/2) - He looked good at Richmond and finished 11th after leading 56 laps, but his odds offered this week as one of four drivers Caesars listed as the co-favorite is malpractice by the oddsmakers. Truex hasn’t won a race since 2021. He has yet to win a race with the NextGen style of car introduced last season.
8 #1 Ross Chastain (16/1) - This has to be a play. Shop around and get better odds, but he’s got the Martinsville mentality and he’s got fast cars. But the fast cars didn’t happen for him until the NextGen car came last season. He was 17th or worse in his first six Cup starts at Martinsville but had top-fives in both races last season.
9 #8 Kyle Busch (13/1) - He’s got two Martinsville wins, a 12.2 average finish, 17 top-fives, and 1,429 laps led. He’s always in the mix here but drove in an era when Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, or Hamlin were winning at Martinsville all the time.
10 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - He missed the fall race last season but he’s been very good the last three seasons at Martinsville capped by a win in 2021 and sixth place in both 2020 races.
