Thursday, September 5, 2019

Indianapolis Betting Preview: 2019 Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard

Sunday's race will be the 26th Cup race at Indy.
Let’s look at Sunday’s Big Machine Vodka 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the same sense as we look at game 163 for teams in MLB’s regular season. It’s a do-or-die situation with a playoff berth looming.

Four drivers are separated by just 26-points vying for the final two playoff spots to complete the 16 driver field for the 10-race playoffs which begins next week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The pressure is on, and it will be the most entertaining part of Sunday’s race aside from rooting in my wagers to win.

The driver with the upper hand is Clint Bowyer who is sitting 15th in the standings only 8-points ahead of 16th-place. He came through huge last week with a sixth-place at Darlington and came through with a fifth-place at Indy last season.

“It’s all lining up to be a really big weekend, between racing at a place like Indianapolis and for as high of stakes as we are racing for,” Bowyer said.

“It’s pretty clear cut what we have to do if we want to get into the playoffs. We are confident. We ran well at Indy last year and we’ll need to do it again. This is what the playoff format was designed to do. I mean, I wish we were more secure, but it’s going to be a hell of a show with a bunch of us racing hard to get in.”

Bowyer has been bumped up to 40/1 odds to win this week just because his goal is expected to cautious and conservative around the track to outpoint, or stay ahead of those other three he’s racing with even though a win would automatically qualify him for the playoffs.

The battle I’m most excited to see is Daniel Suarez-Ryan Newman II, the finale, or a continuation from last week at Darlington when Suarez tapped Newman out the way. Suarez finished 11th, Newman finished 23rd which has them tied in the standings at 16th-place. Newman vowed a payback. Suarez says he racing the field, and not just Newman.

“I’m racing those 39 people because of stage points and everything that is involved with that,” said Suarez who is 40-to-1 to win. “At the same time, I’m obviously tied with someone to make it into the playoffs. It’s one of those deals where you have to focus on your race and try and get the most points for yourself, but at the same time you’re always wondering where that other guy is.”

Newman is definitely a driver Suarez ought to pay attention to and stay away as far as possible from him because Newman never forgets. With it being all on the line and near the end of his career, Newman an Indiana native and 2013 Brickyard 400 winner, will seize the moment.

“We know what we have to do entering this weekend,” Newman said. “We’ve shown all season we have a lot of fight and we don’t give up, so we’re going to continue that at Indy. Going back home to Indiana is always special for me and is a place that has been good to us over the years. We’re going to give it everything we have this weekend in our Acorns Ford.”

Newman is 100-to-1 to win Sunday and while I don’t recommend the bet, I do respect that he’s finished 12th or better in seven of his last eight Indy starts. He was 10th last season and third in 2017.

Jimmie Johnson sits 18th in points, 18-points behind 16th place. He needs a lot of help and knows it.

“There is some pressure to go out and win this weekend, but that is what we do every weekend,” said Johnson who is 60-to-1 to win Sunday. “We go to a track with the intention to contend for wins. If I look back over the first half of the season, I see a lot of races where we gave away a few points. It’s kind of unfair to put all the pressure on one race in Indy, but that is where we are right now. It’s a great track to win at. We know what we have to do this weekend.”

Johnson has four wins at Indy, but if the seven-time Cup Champion doesn’t make the playoffs it’ll be the first time in his amazing career that he’s missed the postseason.

Those four drivers will be the main storyline Sunday, but let’s talk about the four drivers I like to actually win the race.

First up is Erik Jones (8/1) fresh off his first win of the season last week at Darlington which gives Joe Gibbs Racing 13 wins in 25 races in 2019. He was runner-up at Indy last year and the most important factor to garner my supports this week is finishing third at Pocono in June and runner-up at Pocono in July.

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