|Martin Truex Jr. is going to be hard to catch Sunday.|
His Toyota, which uses Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, is going to be hard to catch once the race starts just because of being fast both on short and long runs. It's almost impossible to pass, so we could possibly see him run away and hide for the 160 laps almost like he did at Charlotte in May when he started from the pole and led a NASCAR record 392 of the 400 laps for his only win of the season. He's using that same chassis this weekend.
Here's a look at the final Pocono driver ratings which consists of past track history, current form, qualifying and practices. It's roughly the same formula I've used weekly to create odds to win at Las Vegas sports books since 1994.
Micah Roberts' Sprint Cup Driver Ratings
Sunday, July 31, 2016 - 10:50 am PT
RATING DRIVER ODDS PRACTICE 1 QUALIFIED PRACTICE 2 POCONO 1*
1. Martin Truex Jr. 7/1 6th 1st 1st 19th
2015 winner; fastest 10-consecutive lap average in practice - using winning Charlotte chassis.
2. Kevin Harvick 6/1 5th 17th 3rd 9th
No wins in 31 starts - runner-up in two of past four; third fastest 10-consecutive lap average..
3. Brad Keselowski 10/1 19th 7th 2nd 3rd
Gritty 2011 win driving with broken and severely swollen ankle; runner-up in two of past five starts.
4. Denny Hamlin 8/1 2nd 4th 15th 14th
Four-time winner, the last in 2010. Practiced well and comes off a solid fourth-place run at Indy.
5. Kurt Busch 12/1 14th 15th 4th 1st
Three-time winner, including June's race and he's using that same chassis this week.
6. Chase Elliott 15/1 8th 8th 5th 4th
Led race-high 51 laps in June, a reason to believe he'll shake 15th or worse slump in past five races.
7. Carl Edwards 8/1 4th 2nd 9th 8th
Two-time winner, the last in 2008. No top-fives since 2010, but practiced well and starts up front.
8. Kyle Busch 6/1 3rd 16th 6th 31st
No wins in 23 starts with 18.9 average finish, but dominating Indy win a good indicator for success.
9. Jimmie Johnson 8/1 12th 21st 10th 35th
Three-time winner with 10.3 average finish (19 top-10s) and 738 laps led in 29 career starts.
10. Joey Logano 10/1 7th 10th 17th 5th
2012 winner; top-five in three of past four starts -- 20th last fall after leading 97 laps (ran out of fuel).
* Results from the June 6, 2016 race at Pocono. Another good handicapping guide is reviewing last week's Brickyard race, which has similar features to Pocono.
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1994. Follow on Twitter @MicahRoberts7
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