Sunday, March 10, 2013

Betting Notes: 2013 Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas

Kevin Harvick has a great chance to win in Las Vegas
By Micah Roberts
Las Vegas Review-Journal

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series makes its 16th visit to Las Vegas Motor Speedway today, and most sports books have gone full throttle with their menu for wagers.

Here are some of the best value opportunities based on the premise that four-time Las Vegas winner Jimmie Johnson will continue to be strong, last week's Phoenix winner and two-time Vegas winner Carl Edwards is going to run well, and Kevin Harvick might finally win at the track where he made his Cup debut.


The best value on Johnson to win was offered at Aliante and William Hill books at 6-1. Edwards was 11-1 at William Hill, and Harvick was 18-1 at Cantor Gaming.

This is a track at which the favorite usually wins. The reigning Cup champion has won this race four times, and six times the Las Vegas winner went on to capture the season championship. Bottom line: Expect no surprises today.

If you must take a crack at someone with long odds, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (50-1 at Cantor) was outstanding in practice Saturday and looks to have the same quality setup as fast teammates Edwards and Greg Biffle. The best overall value when combining odds to quality of car is Harvick.


By the numbers, you'll see you have an edge with 26 cars being either a Toyota or Ford against 17 Chevys. Chevy's legitimate number of contenders becomes lighter when considering all four Hendrick cars, maybe two from Childress and possibly two Stewart-Haas cars have a chance to run well. That's only eight Chevys and a small window of opportunity to get six of them in the top 10 that it would take to lose this wager.

Six Chevys finished in the top 10 at Daytona, where anyone has a chance, and five finished in the top 10 at Phoenix. This looks like a spot in which the worst-case scenario might be a push with five Fords and Toyotas finishing in the top 10, but there is much more upside with the MWR, Gibbs, Roush and Penske teams to have six, and since it's offered at plus-money, the bettor has an edge.

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