Friday, May 18, 2012

Final 2012 NASCAR All-Star Race Driver Ratings

Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Saturday, May 19, 2012 -  4:00 pm (PDT)

Rating    Driver     Odds        Practice 1   Qualified    Vegas ‘11*   Texas ‘11*

 1. Greg Biffle 10/1                    2nd              4th              3rd                1st
No one has been better collectively on the type of tracks that need major horse-power.
 2. Jimmie Johnson 6/1            14th             6th              2nd                2nd
Two-time winner with an average finish of 7.2; using third-place chassis from Kansas.
 3. Brad Keselowski 12/1           6th             19th           32nd              36th
Had best five and 10 consecutive lap average in only practice run before qualifying.
 4. Tony Stewart 7/1                 18th              9th              1st               24th
2009 winner with an average finish of 7.1; using new chassis that spent hours in wind tunnel.
 5. Mark Martin 25/1                 7th              16th            18th               3rd
Two wins in all-time race high 22 starts; using fifth-place chassis Brian Vickers raced at Bristol.
 6. Martin Truex Jr. 15/1            5th             DNP             17th               6th
Needs to finish in the top-2 of Sprint Showdown to advance; consistently good on fast tracks.
 7. Carl Edwards 9/1                   4th              13th             5th                8th
2011 winner with an average finish of 9.3; using fifth-place Fontana chassis this week.
 8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1        1st              DNP            10th              10th
2000 winner, one of two rookies to win race; needs to advance from the Sprint Shootout.
 9. Matt Kenseth 9/1                  8th              15th             22nd              5th
2004 winner, eight top-10s with a 6.5 average finish; using Fontana chassis this week.
10. Kasey Kahne 12/1               17th            20th             19th               7th
2008 winner; former CMS president Humpy Wheeler’s selection (picked 10 of 19 races correct).

* Results from races run this season at Las Vegas and Texas, tracks that run similar to the high banking of Charlotte’s 1.5-mile facility.

Note: The All-Star race consists of four 20-lap segments culminating with a final 10-lap dash. The winners from each of the first four segments will start 1-4 in the final dash.

Odds courtesy of the LVH Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to, or follow on Twitter: MicahRoberts7.

Betting Notes
Kyle Busch looked good in practice and qualified on the pole, but those times don’t really mean much to me like they do at a regular race. Busch will likely be fast, but might get a little too excited and find himself in trouble like he always seems to in the All-Star races. If anything, Busch might be a driver I look to bet against in match-ups with any of the 10 listed drivers above.

Expect Martin Truex Jr to make to the All-Star race and contend for the win. The three drivers I think he’ll be battling with are Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards. And of course, you can’t forget two-time All-Star race winner Jimmie Johnson.

I will also take a shot with Mark Martin who will be making his All-Star race record 23rd start. His high odds warrant a look and for the same reasons I like Truex Jr, I like Martin: these Waltrip cars are fast every week..

I can’t say I’d be surprised if any one of the possible 23 drivers won the race, outside of David Ragan. There will definitely be a little more excitement during the segments because winning a segment puts the driver into great position to win the $1 million by starting in the first two rows of the final 10-lap dash.

All-Star Race Lineup

Sprint Showdown Lineup

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