Texas Final Practice: Johnson Fastest, But Roush Stable Is On The Prowl

by M Roberts

Happy Hour is any indication of how the Texas NASCAR Sprint Cup race will be run on Sunday, then Jimmie Johnson is likely to widen his lead in the Chase for the Championship and quite possibly win his seventh race of the season.

Johnson laid down the fastest lap in Texas’ final practice session at 186.670 mph while running the second most laps with 49. After escaping Talladega with a gift sixth place finish while simply looking to just finish, Johnson looks like he wants to finish the last three races of the season with his guns-a-blazin’.

A great tool to use helping figure out who may run better than others is by referring to all the other similar track’s data using practices and what happened in the race itself. In Texas’ case, we have six similar instances this year of races run on 1.5 mile high banked tracks that include Las Vegas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and the first Texas race.

The two most recent races run are the most likely indicators of the six as to how well Saturday’s practice times relate to a driver’s actual expected performance.

Without having to look at anything, Johnson stands out despite his practice times just because he’s, well, he’s Jimmie Johnson. Even though he won at Charlotte, the last like-track, he’s had his worst combined season of finishes on these type of tracks which should give hope to some of the others.

What may turn out to be more good news for the field is that Johnson is using that Charlotte rocket as his back-up car this week, opting to go with the chassis that won at Dover instead.

The driver that looked the most promising among those who haven’t done well on these type of tracks this season is Carl Edwards who had the second fastest lap in Happy Hour. He does have two top-5 finishes on these types this season, but Edwards just doesn’t get top-5’s, he gets wins on them and dominates, or at least he did.

Last season at Texas, he continued the Fenway-Roush dominance at Texas by sweeping the season giving him three career wins on the track. It also contributed to Roush’s beefy all-around performance at the track since it opened giving his stable seven wins in 17 races there.

These are supposed to be Roush-friendly tracks and always have been. Yet as the stars aligned in February, everything seemed to change. Roush ended up winning his first Daytona 500 ever, but in the process, sold his season’s soul to do it, or at least that how it looks.

Following Matt Kenseth’s two straight wins to start the season, it’s been one of the worst years ever for Roush.

There has never been a driver so dominant one year with nine wins, to the next having zero wins, while starting every event like Edwards is on the verge of. Greg Biffle won two races late last season and hasn’t won either. David Ragan has gone from barely missing the Chase last season to competing for 26th position in points with the likes of A.J. Allmendinger.

The lone bright spot since Kenseth’s run was the Jamie McMurray win last week, a driver who is in lame duck status. The taint on the bright spot was that the win gave no hope to a once strong program because it was in a restrictor plate race.

Somehow, some way, all things look to be better for Roush this week based on practice. Not only is Edwards second fastest, but Biffle came in fourth, Ragan sixth, McMurray 13th, and Kenseth 27th.

Kenseth’s times are always lousy and he never really puts any emphasis on them. What is encouraging was the nice run he had in the last Charlotte race where he finished second to Johnson as well as his fifth at Texas in the spring.

Denny Hamlin had the third fastest Happy Hour lap and the best average lap times while running his same chassis that led 54 laps at Charlotte last month before having engine problems.

Dale Earnhardt Jr looked solid in his final practice as he came in with the eighth best lap, but more encouraging for him is that he was fast in long runs having the best average lap times over the session. He ran 39 laps in his Kansas chassis, the one that led 41 laps before engine trouble, and has a car capable of winning on race day; something we haven’t been able to say too often this season. It was one of his best practices of 2009.

David Reutimann got off to a blazing start in Saturday’s first practice session by running the overall fastest lap of 186.812 mph on his first of 22 laps run. His fast times should come as no surprise because he’s been doing it all season on the high-banked 1.5 mile tracks.

Not only has Reutimann had great practices for these races, but he’s also turned into success in the actual race. In the six races run on the like-facilities, Reutimann has captured three of his five top-5 finishes, including the only win of his career in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600.

Top Speeds - Saturday’s Final Practice (Happy Hour):
1) Jimmie Johnson 186.670 mph - AVG 49 laps @ 179.239
2) Carl Edwards 186.265 mph - AVG 34 laps @ 179.479
3) Denny Hamlin 185.810 mph - AVG 29 laps @ 179.604
4) Greg Biffle 185.503 mph - AVG 31 laps @ 178.739
5) Bill Elliott 184.894 mph - AVG 33 laps @ 177.448

Top Speeds - Saturday’s First Practice:
1) David Reutimann 186.812 mph - AVG 22 laps @ 181.520
2) Tony Stewart 186.716 mph - AVG 16 laps @ 182.866
3) Juan Pablo Montoya 186.265 mph - AVG 11 laps @ 181.639
4) Kyle Busch 186.252 mph - AVG 32 laps @ 180.853
5) Kurt Busch 185.714 mph - AVG 28 laps @ 180.381

Top 10 Rated Drivers at Texas following all qualifying and practice sessions. Ratings based on those practices, recent results on similar tracks, and current state of the team.
1) Jimmie Johnson
2) Carl Edwards
3) Greg Biffle
4) Matt Kenseth
5) Denny Hamlin
6) Jeff Gordon
7) Dale Earnhardt Jr
8) Kyle Busch
9) Tony Stewart
10) Mark Martin

Jeff Gordon Wins Texas Pole: First of 2009, 17th Straight Year with Pole

by Jayski.com

Jeff Gordon on pole at Texas:
#24-Jeff Gordon won the Coors Light Pole Award for the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway with a lap of 191.117mph for his 1st pole of the season and 68th career pole, Gordon has now won at least one pole every season for 17 straight seasons and has won 17 races from the 1st starting position. #9-Kahne was 2nd fastest followed by #2-Busch, #14-Stewart, #18-Busch, #99-Edwards, #5-Martin, #16-Biffle, #88-Earnhardt Jr. and #33-Bowyer.

The non Top-35 drivers who made the race: #02-Gilliland, #70-Skinner, #71-Labonte, #82-Speed, #78-Smith, #87-Nemechek, #36-McDowell and #21-Elliott.
The four drivers who failed to qualify: #37-Raines, #66-Blaney, #13-Papis and #09-Bliss.(11-6-2009)

Qualifying Fast Facts - Texas:
* #24-Jeff Gordon won the Coors Light Pole Award for the Dickies 500 with a lap of 28.255 seconds, 191.117 mph.
* This is his 68th pole in 579 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races. He has now won a pole in 17 consecutive seasons.
* This is his first pole and 24th top-10 start in 2009. His last pole came at Texas Motor Speedway in November 2008.
* This is his second pole in 18 races at Texas Motor Speedway.
* #9-Kasey Kahne (second) posted his 18th top-10 start of 2009 and his seventh in 11 races at Texas Motor Speedway.
* #2-Kurt Busch (third) posted his fourth top-10 start at Texas Motor Speedway. It is his 17th in 34 races this season.
* #20-Joey Logano (14th) was the fastest qualifying rookie.
(NASCAR Statistics)(11-6-2009)

Texas Dickies 500 Preview: Kenseth Could Be a Live Underdog This Week

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Race No. 34 of 36 on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule takes us to Texas where we can get back some normal racing instead of the garbage witnessed last week at Talladega.

The best thing about Texas is that you can use a wealth of data from the long season to help handicap for this race. You have results from the similar sister-tracks of Las Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, and the spring Texas race to go off of. Most of those tracks are all banked about the same and are very similar despite some unique traits of their own.

The most recent race run should get higher regards than the one ran earlier. If we sift through all the results I would pay more attention to the Charlotte race from a few weeks ago more than I would the March Vegas race, but necessarily more than the April Texas race.

Take Jeff Gordon for example. He won the first Texas race this season and has finished well at every one of the sister-tracks. His worse finish was at Charlotte in May when he finished 14th, but that was in part because of rain ending the race. Gordon was in that race as a strong contender to win. Even if we use that finish, Gordon’s average finish on the combined tracks is 5.8.

Jimmie Johnson almost went the entire season without winning on one of these type of tracks, which would have been a major shock because he has dominated on them since he came into the series. No one has been better. He didn’t get the win until a few weeks ago at Charlotte. In the five previous 1.5-mile high-banked races he had struggled, at least by his standards. He did finish second in Texas, but that was the only top-5.

Johnson will be bringing his chassis that he won at Dover with. His backup chassis will be the one he won with at Charlotte. He’s got a nice lead in points and we can expect him to let it all hang out, unlike last week. Knowing Johnson’s style, he’d love nothing more than to win his fourth title in a row in style.

Matt Kenseth hasn’t been good at too many places other than the first two stops of the season he won -- remember the Daytona 500 winner. Yeah, I know, it seems like two years ago since then. Anyway, Kenseth falls into that category of a driver that should do well based on his last race on these type of tracks and Texas itself.

Last month at Charlotte, Kenseth gave everything he had to beat Johnson but had to settle for second. In one of his rare six top-5 finishes on the year, Kenseth was able to finish fifth in the April Texas race. This is one driver that may slip under the Sports Books radar and present great value in all betting propositions.

Kasey Kahne started out slow, but was still respectable on these type of tracks at the beginning of the season. He really came on late with a win at Atlanta in September and then came back with a strong third in Charlotte. The former Texas winner looks like a top contender to win again this week.

Even though the 1.5-mile high banks appear to be the same as results show, Kahne has some particulars that are different to the driver.

"Getting into Turn One can be tricky,” Kahne said. “It is real flat and then as you are coming into the corner, you get into the banking. It’s almost like you fall into the corner at 190 miles per hour. Turn Three is similar but it is not as drastic. It is a difficult place to get your car to handle the way you want. It is a great track, but you really need your car to handle well on entry to be competitive."

This type of track usually doesn’t allow for many surprises, at least to the magnitude we saw the with the last two Talladega winners of Brad Keselowski and Jamie McMurray winning.

Speaking of Keselowski, he’ll be getting his first run with his new job in 2010 running for Penske Racing in the No. 12 Dodge. He’ll be running the final three races this season. Unlike David Stremme, Keselowski will be getting brand new equipment beginning this week.

TOP 5 Finish prediction:
1) #9 Kasey Kahne (12/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (20/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)


Last weeks race at Talladega was going so well with all kinds of lead changes and drivers shuffling from way back to the front in one or two laps. In was an exciting race, at least until the end.

In was supposed to be a Green-White-Checkers end, but it didn’t seem like they got to the White flag when all the action started. The caution flag came out a little too late and it seemed like they were in a hurry to call the thing to avoid any more delays, and wrecks, or at least that‘s the way I wanted to believe it.

In all NASCAR’s efforts since the Carl Edwards flip into the catch-fence at Talladega in the spring to avoid those type of occurrences, they threw gasoline on the fire. It seems to me that the folks in NASCAR may want to do a better job a separating the cars more, because that seems to be where the big accidents always come from.

The answer isn’t making the hole in the restrictor plate smaller to slow the fuel down because all that does is make the cars take longer to get up to full speed and then once the drafting starts, they go about 10 to 15 miles an hour faster.

If they want to solve the problem, the best way may be to go with a smaller engine that still has some response to the throttle and use some skinnier tires. If drivers start wrecking because they can’t grip, they’ll learn to control their throttle more instead of the full out mash on the gas they do now.

The late Dale Earnhardt used to always complain about not having control over his throttle in plate races, even after he’d won.

Picture going uphill to an expressway driving a Yugo, trying to get up to speed, but getting no response as you continue to chug at 25 mph.

NASCAR has put these drivers in this position and they’re not happy about it. Poor Ryan Newman had to sit crammed in flattened car for 20 minutes until they opened his car like a can of sardines to get him out and it was a direct result of what NASCAR has done.

For my own benefit, If I’m going to spend the bulk of my Sunday morning watching a race that is competing for air-time with my previously unbeaten Denver Broncos, then I at least want to see a finish. Don’t give me all the fun and a frills of what looks to be great racing and then give me an ending like Geraldo’s search for Al Capone’s Lost Vault.