Bud Shootout Post-Practice Report: Logano and Earnhardt Jr. Fastest

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The two-car draft was very popular and successful Friday

All it took was thirty seconds of hype prior to the cars making their first competitive test runs of the season Friday -- in preparation for Saturday night’s Budweiser Shootout -- for me to realize how much I truly missed NASCAR racing. When the cars finally got out to do their first few laps, I think I was actually more thrilled than I was for last weeks Super Bowl, and that‘s just for practice. We haven’t even seen them race yet.

It didn’t take long for the eventual fastest lap of that first session to happen, either, as Dale Earnhardt Jr. took it and ran. It’s safe to say that his first three seasons with Hendrick Motorsports have been, well, let’s just say not as good as many had hoped. But this year, the millions in the Junior Nation can restart their hopes again as Dale Jr. has a new crew chief and has a new garage-mate in Jimmie Johnson. And then he goes off and starts the season out with the top practice times?

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s remember that Earnhardt Jr. also won his first race with Hendrick in the 2008 Budweiser Shootout. But there is optimism to be had, for sure, beyond all the positives he has coming into Daytona Speedweeks which is the uncertainty of all the new changes.

The new surface makes this years events at Daytona, and beyond, a completely different ball game than what we have witnessed in the past. In the first practice alone, despite this years restrictor plate pumping out up to 40 horsepower less than 2010, Earnhardt Jr.’s top speed was over 6 mph faster than Jeff Burton’s top speed from the first practice last season.

The other hope for Junior is that Hendrick looks to have their best plate program since 2007. All four of the Hendrick cars were fast during the first practice session with them taking three of the first four fastest speeds.

One of the main things that stood out over both practice sessions is that at times, two cars drafting together were faster than the standard draft train we’ve seen over the years. Junior and Johnson were working well together for the later half of practice and between the four cars, they may be onto something for both Saturday night and in next week’s Daytona 500.

Despite how sharp all the Hendrick cars looked, we still can’t pass the crown yet until anyone outside of an EGR engine wins a plate race. Kevin Harvick has won the last two Shootouts and won two of the plate races last year. Jamie McMurray won the Daytona 500 and was barely beat by Harvick at Talladega. Clint Bowyer barely beat Harvick at Talladega in the fall and he’s using that same exact chassis Saturday night.

Look out for Joey Logano who has a rocket ready for Saturday night. 

What could derail the Childress and Ganassi cars could be the changes to the car such as a smaller restrictor plate, changes to the front end, spoiler, tires and then the surface itself. There are a lot of unknowns here like we haven’t seen all at once before and it wouldn’t be surprising if the most well funded team in NASCAR, Hendrick, was ahead of the game like they were when the COT was introduced.

The car that has looked the best throughout pre-season testing and Friday’s two practice sessions is Joey Logano’s. He’s got a few plate races under his belt now and comes off the final 10 races of 2010 with seven top-11 finishes. His Joe Gibbs teammates, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, have looked great as well over the same span.

In the short 75 lap format, Busch would seem to have an edge just because of his natural style and instincts to go all out. They haven’t fared him well in this race in the past, maybe because he accentuates those traits, but look for a more reserved new Kyle Busch this season beginning with the Shootout.

I don’t advise anyone to wager too much on this race, but I do advise on watching closely to what happens. What we see Saturday night will be very similar to what see next week where there’s big money to be made by taking a chance on a few of the long shots.

Roberts Top-10 Driver Ratings for Budweiser Shootout 

Friday's Bud Shootout Practice Speeds

Roberts Top-10 Sprint Cup Driver Ratings: Budweiser Shootout

Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings 
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car -- or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.


Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Budweiser Shootout (75-lap non-points race)
Daytona International Speedway
Saturday, February 12, 2011 - 5:10 pm (PDT)

                                                 Pre-Season Test         Bud Shootout
Rating    Driver     Odds                Best   2nd Best       Practice 1  Practice 2

 1. Clint Bowyer 12/1                 1st          7th                 4th           DNP
Won at Talladega, the last restrictor plate race run at; using the same chassis Saturday.
 2. Kyle Busch 7/1                      3rd         9th                 5th             2nd                          
Consistent times throughout all testing and practices; his style suits the short format well.                            
 3. Kevin Harvick 6/1                 13th       15th               16th            7th                            
Won the last two Shootouts on top of winning two plates races during 2010 season.        
 4. Joey Logano 20/1                 1st          3rd                10th            1st   
He may have the best car of the bunch, but lacks plate race seat time to rank him No. 1.
 5. Jeff Gordon 10/1                    2nd        6th                20th            8th                              
Two-time Shootout winner with 10 top-5 finishes in 17 starts; plate program much improved.
 6. Jamie McMurray 10/1            4th         7th                13th          DNP                                
Plate race specialist; finished within top-3 in the last two Shootouts; won Daytona 500 in 2010.
 7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1         7th        11th                1st             16th 
Two-time Shootout winner with a new crew chief and garage (Johnson’s)? Dangerous!
 8. Denny Hamlin 10/1               1st          3rd                 8th              6th
Won Shootout as a rookie in 2006; had a great pre-season test and practiced well Friday.
 9. Kurt Busch 12/1                    2nd        14th               14th            14th 
The best driver to never win a plate race, including the Shootout. He’ll need friends to help.
10. Jimmie Johnson 12/1            8th       26th                3rd             15th 
Won the Shootout in 2005; he was hooked up with Earnhardt Jr. throughout the first practice.
                      
* The Sprint Cup teams tested out Daytona’s new surface, changes to the car and tires in January. The listed speeds are their two best performances in any of the five sessions they participated in.

Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Budweiser Shootout Practice Times

by Jayski.com

Happy Hour Practice for the Bud Shootout is over at Daytona International Speedway. Some results and notes:

1) #9-Kahne, 2 laps run, 191.673mph
2) #82-Schrader, 18, 191.371
3) #17-Kenseth, 12, 191.367
4) #48-Johnson, 2, 191.294
5) #14-Stewart, 28, 191.270
6) #83-Vickers, 19, 191.221
7) #31-Burton, 16, 191.192
8) #42-Montoya, 8, 191.148
9) #99-Edwards, 23, 191.083
10) #20-Logano, 32, 191.034
11) #24-Gordon, 31, 190.743
12) #39-Newman, 34, 190.690
13) #51-Waltrip, 27, 190.621
14) #2-Busch [wrecked], 2, 190.561
15) #18-Busch, 25, 90.476
16) #34-Andretti, 28, 190.464
17) #71-Labonte, 13, 190.367
18) #88-Earnhardt Jr., 40, 189.934
19) #1-McMurray,9, 189.310
20) #16-Biffle,13, 189.298
21) #29-Burton [for Harvick],11, 188.241
22) #5-Martin [backup car bering worked on]
23) #11-Hamlin [backup car bering worked on]
24) #75-Cope, didn't run either practice

wreck #2: On the first lap, another wreck, when #34-Andretti slowed causing #2-Busch to slow. #42-Montoya got into the rear of the #2, sending Busch into the wall. The #2 team will go to a backup car, the sixth team to do so far. If the drivers cannot get the backup cars on the track for practice, they will have to start the Bud Shootout from the rear of the field, no matter what starting spot they draw at the Budweiser Selection Show Thursday night. #14-Stewart had to go to the garage midway thru and have the radiator changed as debris went thru it. #48-Johnson went out for a lap after the wreck and parked it for the night after running only two laps.(2-4-2010)

1st Practice for the Bud Shootout is over at Daytona International Speedway. Some results and notes:
1) #31-Jeff Burton, 19 laps run, 193.303mph
2) #1-McMurray, 12, 193.241 [wrecked/backup]
3) #18-Busch, 13, 193.212
4) #51-Waltrip, 9, 192.349
5) #5-Martin, 13, 191.546 [wrecked/backup]
6) #48-Johnson, 12, 191.530
7) #39-Newman, 10, 191.257
8) #9-Kahne, 14, 191.196
9) #20-Logano, 19, 191.123
10) #29-Bowyer [in for Harvick], 15, 190.977 [wrecked/backup]
11) #88-Earnhardt Jr., 14, 190.949
12) #42-Montoya, 7, 190.900
13) #24-Gordon, 11, 190.811
14) #83-Vickers, 18, 190.779
15) #2-Busch, 14, 190.779
16) #17-Kenseth, 13, 190.779
17) #16-Greg Biffle, 12, 190.751 [wrecked/backup]
18) #11-Hamlin, 18, 190.747 [wrecked/backup]
19) #99-Edwards, 9, 190.630
20) #82-Schrader, 9, 190.517
21) #14-Stewart, 19, 190.517
22) #34-Andretti, 7, 188.288
23) #71-Labonte, 7, 186.896
24) #75-Cope, 0, no speed

Big wreck: Late in the practice, #11-Hamlin got into the rear of #5-Martin in turn one with both wrecking, collecting #1-McMurray. All three, plus the #29 & #16 teams will go to backup cars. Others damaged included #29-Bowyer, #16-Biffle, #20-Logano, #83-Vickers. The rules are a tad different for backup cars in the Shootout. As long as the backup car is practiced, the driver can start in the position they draw at the Budweiser Selection Show, 9:00pm/et on SPEED.(2-4-2010)