Micah Roberts' Top-10 Phoenix Finish Prediction: 2023 United Rental Work United 500k

Race 4 of the 2023 NASCAR Cup schedule takes us to Phoenix Raceway’s unique 1-mile oval for Sunday’s United Rentals Work United 500k. That’s 312 laps for 502 kilometers and a new twist on the NextGen car that will make its debut at Phoenix and all the other short track and road courses this season. Less downforce on the cars, about 30% less, with the spoiler height reduced from four inches down to two inches. It’s said to mimic the NASCAR cars from the 1990’s. So I’ve had to adapt. I’m thinking the cars will be looser and have supported a few drivers that drive well with loose cars. Drivers with dirt track experience are the first that come to mind.

Here’s what I’m thinking for Sunday’s race using odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:

1 #5 Kyle Larson (+850) - I think he’ll have an edge in all the simulations leading up to this race and he comes off the hauler in dominating fashion where only a wreck can stop him. He drives on dirt tracks, and wins, for fun when he's not racing in NASCAR.

2 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - In his first season with Trackhouse, he was runner-up in this race last season and was third in the fall. The watermelon farmer has a great look to get his first win of 2023.

3 #12 Ryan Blaney (+850) - He’s got a 12th-place average finish at Phoenix and of his eight starts for Penske Racing he’s finished sixth or better in eight of them.

4 #29 Christopher Bell (9/1) - He’s my top Toyota to win because of what he did last season on similar tracks such as winning at New Hampshire and runner-up at Richmond.

5 #11 Denny Hamlin (9/1) - In 35 Cup starts, he has two wins, with 16 top-fives, and 854 laps led. It’s a mile, it’s flat with little banking and that’s been his best situation until last season with the new car.

6 #4 Kevin Harvick (10/1) - The best ever at Phoenix. Period. He leads just about every statistical category possible at Phoenix with nine wins, 19 top-fives, 29 top-10s, and 1,663 laps led in 40 starts.

7 #8 Kyle Busch (9/1) - He’s a great candidate to win because he’s always been in whatever series he’s raced in at Phoenix and at whatever age, and he also drives loose cars well.

8 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (10/1) - No top-10s at Phoenix last season with it and no wins. But I think he has something for all these cars this week.

9 #45 Tyler Reddick (20/1) - Look for his best finish of the season, or at least a top-10. He drives loose cars very well.

10 #48 Alex Bowman (18/1) - He and his team have a different look this season and I’m expecting his best Phoenix finish since 2016.

Read the full article and top-20 selections at Sportsline.com

Practice 1 Results - Larson Fastest