Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Bristol Betting Preview: 2019 Food City 500

It's Bristol racing, baby!
Sunday's Food City 500 on the high-banked, half-mile concrete layout at Bristol Motor Speedway could produce record speeds because of the new rules package with the higher spoiler, an engine with 750 horsepower, and no aero-ducts. It should also produce some road rage with almost every driver lined up bumper-to-bumper and side-by-side for 500 laps.

Bristol's bullring is already the fastest half-mile track in the world, but the speeds are still slow enough that drivers have no problem bumping a slower driver out of the way with little fear of injuring the driver as would be the case on the larger tracks. This is where the fun starts for a lot of us. I love rivalries. I love drivers announcing payback is coming. I even like brawls. It adds new storylines for the ensuing week. Bristol is the perfect place to provide some of that.

“Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the best racetracks on the circuit," points-leader Kyle Busch said. "All the fans love it because of the excitement, the run-ins and the close-quarter action with all the cars being packed on top of one another at a half-mile racetrack with us 40 lunatics running around in a tight circle. With the fans, the atmosphere there always makes for a good time.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has posted Busch as the 5/2 betting favorite (Bet $100 to win $250) on the basis of him winning two of the last three Bristol races and his seven wins are most among active drivers. He's also got nine Xfinity Series wins there along with five Truck Series wins.

Busch proved to have a great car with this package winning at Phoenix last month after leading a race-high 177 laps. He was third at Martinsville with it as well. He's got the history and he's obviously got the package. But if we back out his seven Cup wins at Bristol, he's only got three other top-fives in 20 starts. He's had some volatile moments leading to poor finishes at the track. Here are his last 10 starts beginning with last fall: 20th, 1st, 1st, 35th, 39th, 38th, 8th, 36th, 29th, and 11th. He's been in accidents in four of his last eight starts.

Denny Hamlin didn't win a race last season, the first time in his career going winless in a Cup season. But after last week's impressive win at Texas, he's now got two wins in the seven races this season. He's second in points and has a 5.3 average finish between his seven starts. He won at Bristol in 2012 and is 14-to-1 to win Sunday.

“Bristol is always a fan favorite, and it would be such an awesome place to return to Victory Lane," Hamlin said. "We’re proud of our performance at Texas, but now our team is back to work with all our focus on the challenge at Bristol.”

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