Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Dover Betting Preview: 2018 Gander Outdoors 400:

The high banks of Dover usually produce some great racing. 
The Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway not only gets the second-round of NASCAR's Playoffs started, but for the first time it also gets wagering on the premises for the trio of NASCAR races held there this weekend.

Sunday's Gander Outdoors 400 will be the second Cup Series visit of the season on the high banked 1-mile concrete layout. Four drivers were eliminated from the postseason race last week at Charlotte's roval and just 12 drivers remain eligible to win the 2018 Cup Championship with seven races to go.

“I felt like I was just kind of playing defense at the roval," said Chase Elliott who made the cut by nine points. "It just wasn’t worth busting our butts and not making it through to the next round when we had a little bit of cushion. So, I am just glad we are moving on and I am looking forward to the next three because there are some good tracks for us.”

There's a huge sigh of relief for a few drivers that advanced, while some major disappointments for those that didn't make it like Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson.

“There were some sleepless nights last week,” Clint Bowyer said with a laugh. “I was worried about the first few races because they weren’t at tracks where we’ve been strong, but these next races are at places where we’ve run well and I expect we’ll run well again. I can’t wait to get to that old track at Dover and get going this weekend.”

Bowyer starts the second round of the Playoffs in fifth-place behind leader Kyle Busch, second-place Kevin Harvick, third-place Martin Truex Jr, and fourth-place Brad Keselowski. Those five drivers have combined to win 23 of the 29 races this season, so it's properly stacked and the Playoff point system allows the elite to be rewarded for regular season success.

The first Dover race was held May 6, just prior to the Supreme Court ruling that repealed PASPA which paved the way for legalized sports wagering outside of Nevada. Dover has a casino and hotel located on site and has been taking sports book wagers on a limited basis for the past few years, but only parlay wagers and they also couldn't book NASCAR. This weekend they get to book NASCAR for the first time. They get the Trucks Series race Friday, the Xfinity Series race Saturday and the Cup Series race on Sunday. It's a captive audience and it should be worth an estimated $250,000 in wagering win for the weekend for book operator William Hill.

Kevin Harvick grabbed his second Dover win in May in dominating fashion. He won the first two stages before taking the checkers leading six times for 201 of the 400 laps. He passed Stewart Haas Racing teammate Clint Bowyer with 63 laps to go and never gave it up. Bowyer led three times for 40 laps and made a race-high 47 passes throughout the race. Their other teammates, Kurt Busch finished fourth and Aric Almirola finished 11th.

Chances are all four drivers will be just as good, not just because of the May results at Dover, but also because of the August 18 race at Bristol's half-mile concrete layout. The high banks of Bristol make its set-up requirement similar to Dover. It's a mini-Dover of sorts. Kurt Busch won at Bristol, Bowyer was sixth and led 120- laps and Harvick finished 10th. Kyle Busch won the April Bristol race from the pole.

The best statistical driver at Dover has been Chase Elliott with a fifth-place average finish in five starts. He was 12th in the May race, but last fall led 138 laps before finishing second. He finished third in the August Bristol race leading 112 laps. He should be a contender to win here. He's also got the luxury of getting some Dover pointers from Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson who has won a track record 11 times, the last time coming in June of 2017.

Johnson raced himself out of the playoffs last week at Charlotte with a silly move for the win with about 30 yards to go which not only wrecked himself, but also leader MartinTruex Jr. Johnson has never gone a season without a win and Sunday's race on the Roval was the closest he's been to sniffing a win all season. I can't blame him, but I was mad at the time that my Truex bet was trashed.

“After sleeping on it, I would only change one thing from Charlotte," said Johnson. "I should’ve added front-brake bias heading into the braking zone. I think we would’ve been door-to-door with the No. 78 across the start-finish line. We were one turn away, and I was only focused on the win. Bring on Dover."

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