Showing posts with label 2011 gatorade duels odds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 gatorade duels odds. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Texas Preview: Stewart the Easy Favorite This Week

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

In an off week that seemed like an eternity for NASCAR fans, things got a little better for most when a guy named Bubba won an event on Sunday. It didn’t matter that the event was golf to NASCAR fans, because they’ve had a special love brewing for Bubba Watson, and not just because he’s a Georgia Bulldog, but rather because of the car he drives.

Watson bought the ‘General Lee’, the famed car from the Dukes of Hazzard television series. Watson not only owns the car, but he proudly drives it to tournaments despite the backlash he receives because the Confederate flag on the roof of the car isn‘t politically correct. Because Watson hasn’t conformed to what people think he ought to do, the fans that comprise of the powerful buying power of NASCAR nation has will soon be seen buying whatever product Bubba is pitching.

With the week off from racing, a big exciting race will be needed to satisfy the fans thirst for NASCAR and it’s something Texas always provides. The high banked 1.5-mile track should provide all the excitement every fan wants to see in a big Texas way on a big Texas starry Saturday night.

Coming into this week’s race, we have a little bit of data to go off of from the results of two tracks that require similar horsepower. Las Vegas is the sister track of Texas and while the baking in Vegas is a just a little flatter with speeds obtained a little slower, it serves as a great barometer for every team as far as set-ups go. Whatever worked well in Las Vegas should translate well in Texas. And whatever went bad at Las Vegas, don’t repeat at Texas.

California is a much flatter and bigger track than both Las Vegas and Texas, but still requires the same type of necessary horsepower needed at Texas.

Stewart is using winning Las Vegas car this week (Getty)
It doesn’t take long to see who the best driver was at Las Vegas and California, because Tony Stewart won them both which is why he is the 6-to-1 favorite this week according to odds posted by the LVH Super Book. If we take Stewart’s past history at Texas into the equation, you don’t have to sort through too many races because he won the last race held there last fall.

If past recent success at Texas and similar tracks isn't enough evidence that Stewart should be favored, consider that he's using the same car that won at Chicago last season and at Las Vegas in March.

It would almost seem foolish to bet any other driver to win this week, but we should at least try to make a case for a few other drivers.

Stewart may have led the most laps in Las Vegas, but it was Jimmie Johnson who was chasing him down but eventually settled for runner-up. Johnson won his six-guns and Cowboy hat at Texas in 2007 and also has four runner-up finishes to his credit. Johnson didn’t look like the driver to beat in Las Vegas, but his crew -- the best in the business -- worked hard to get the right set-up. It’s quite possible that the adjustments made in the crunch at Vegas will have Johnson’s car set ideally right off the hauler when they practice Thursday night.

Greg Biffle won at Texas in 2005, but more importantly, has finished in the top-5 of the last three races run there. The current points leader also has a third-place finish at Las Vegas and a sixth at California to suggest he’s got all the big Texas horsepower he’ll need this week.

“I’m jacked up going to Texas and I cannot wait," Biffle said earlier this week. "I love that race track and we have Filtrete on the car this weekend. Texas is a challenging place, coming off of turn two the track really flattens out, but getting into three and four it’s different on both ends, making for a kind of a long sweeping corner. Typically we run the bottom in three and four, and maybe run up the race track a little bit in one and two. Kind of a double dog leg down the frontstretch and it can be a little bit challenging getting to pit road for green-flag pit stops. We’ve run really really well there, I’ve had a lot of success at Texas, and I feel like it could be our first win of the season coming up.”

Matt Kenseth has the best Texas resume of any driver with an average finish of 8.7 in 19 starts that includes wins in 2002 and last spring. Kenseth was a driver who was expected to do well at Las Vegas and California, but it never materialized. Despite those poor runs, he’s still a driver that can be expected to find his way into the top-5 considering he‘s done it in five of his last six Texas starts. He'll be using a brand new chassis this week to try and get it done again.

Carl Edwards is a three-time winner at Texas and finished third and runner-up last season. Edwards still hasn’t given any indication during practice that he’s a driver to be contended with, but when the race is over, there is right in the mix. At Vegas and California, he looked to have no shot at a top-20 based on practices, but wound up fifth in both races. Texas should get him straight and he knows it.

“I love racing at Texas and it’s been one of our best race tracks," said Edwards, who will be using a brand new chassis this week. "I’ve got some great memories from that place and it’s a fun place to win a race. Martinsville is behind us and we have some really good tracks coming up this month with Texas and Kansas. Those mile-and-a-half tracks have been great for us from day one.”

It’s either hit or miss for Kyle Busch at Texas. He’s either going finish in the top-5 of finish outside the top-15. Busch has never won at Texas and missed last fall’s race due to bad behavior, but the California race showed Busch has some giddy-up under the hood. Busch led the most laps in that race and finished runner-up after the rain shortened the race.

Hamlin swept the 2010 season at Texas (Getty)
In that California race, Denny Hamlin had perhaps the best car and might have won if it weren’t for the rain. Beyond suggesting Hamlin’s progression from California will translate well this week, we also have past history that shows he had a big Texas sweep of the two races in 2010. Hamlin looks to be the best value on the board with most protential to take the race away from Stewart.

The big Texas wild card in this race is Kasey Kahne, who won there in 2006. Kahne also finished third in the fall race last season. The only thing going for Kahne right now is bad luck. He’s had great cars every week, but you would never know by simply looking at the results. It’s likely that Kahne will practice as one of the best this weekend again and we’ll have to see how it plays out from there, but he is going to win very soon, mark it down.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
3) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
4) #14 Tony Stewart (6/1)
5) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Kurt Busch and Jeff Burton Take Gatorade Wins at Daytona

Associated Press

Kurt Busch and Jeff Burton capture the Gatorade Duels
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Jeff Burton has won the second Daytona 500 qualifying race by beating teammate Clint Bowyer to the finish line.

NASCAR sensation Brad Keselowski also pushed his unheralded older brother, Brian, through the field Thursday and into a transfer spot that earned him his first spot in the Daytona 500.

Brian Keselowski, who is two years older than his brother, cried in his car. He'll make his Sprint Cup debut in NASCAR's biggest race of the season.

Kurt Busch won the first of the qualifying races, which set the field for the Daytona 500.

Bill Elliott and J.J. Yeley earned the transfer spots in the first race, while Michael Waltrip joined Brian Keselowski with spots from the second race.

The first Duel set the starting order for the inside row (odd-numbered positions) in the 53rd running of NASCAR's most important race. Smith, who finished second, will start third in the 500. Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne finished third, fourth and fifth and will start fifth, seventh and ninth, respectively, on Sunday.

Bill Elliott and J.J. Yeley claimed the two transfer positions into the Daytona 500, thanks to Duel finishes of 15th and 17th. Because Elliott won't have to fall back on his qualifying time, Michael Waltrip also will race on Sunday, based on his fourth-best qualifying speed among those not locked into the 500.

Read More Here...

Gatorade Duel - Race 1 Results (Kurt Busch Wins)

Gatorade Duel - Race 2 results (Jeff Burton Wins)

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

NASCAR's New Rule Changes Not Good For the Bettor - Gatorade Duel Picks

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

NASCAR has made a few changes in the requirements to cars since Saturday after first witnessing speeds of two-car tandems hit 206 mph. After a few changes geared towards making the car overheat quicker should a car stay in the two-car caravan for very long, Wednesday they announced a reduction in the size of the restrictor-plate of 1/64 of an inch which will reduce the speeds by at least 10 mph and cut RPM’s by 100.

Saturday night these cars were hitting 9,700 PRM’s and it surprising that we didn’t see more failures. The reason we didn’t may have been because It was a short race with an interval after the first 25 laps before the final 50 laps. Sunday’s Daytona 500 will be 200 laps with no interval. Even with the plate reduction, you better believe that there will be a few engine failures over the longer distance.

By closing the front grille opening a little more and installing a pressure-relief valve on the water system at 33 psi, there is going to be even more strain on the car and brings down the operating limits of the car.

For safety reasons, the changes were necessary and had to be made, but I don’t like the timing of it all. These teams spent all off-season maximizing their potential under the given NASCAR rules to win NASCAR’s Super Bowl and now they have to go back to the drawing board with some major changes, given only a few days before their biggest race of the season. All the time, money, strategy and effort spent has been thrown out the window.

It’s insane to assume that the drivers can stay away from each other in a restrictor-plate race. There is no clean air unless being up front. Even if they try to run alone, they can’t, which is going to end quite a few cars day before the race ends due to overheating.

Plate racing is volatile enough as it is with cars taking each other out at high speeds going three-wide, but now we have NASCAR rules in place which should take care of a few themselves.

Because of these changes, I’m feeling less and less comfortable about wagering too much on this race. It was already hard enough to pick a winner in a plate race and with so much shuffling of positions during each, betting driver matchups is almost unbettable. With these changes, it makes every car vulnerable to a DNF like never before.

Of course I’m going to watch it, are you kidding? It’s still the Daytona 500, but as a bettor, a top rule is always money management and betting on this type of racing with so many unknown variables, it’s a poor investment.

On a normal weekend of racing, the player can have a real edge in matchups and odds to win by narrowing down the top five cars after the final practices making the profit margin higher for the player than any casino game. This years Daytona 500 is a huge house adavantage making betting on which dollar bill will land on the casino’s big money wheel seem like a fairer player edge.

Still, I've already bet and will bet a few more because my strategy is already underway with having already taken five drivers and at least five more to come, but my unit plays will be less than the 32 other non-plate races.

Gatorade Duel Top 5 Finish Prediction - Race 1
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
2) #5 Mark Martin (20/1)
3) #29 Kevin Harvick (3/1)
4) #39 Ryan Newman (15/1)
5) #27 Paul Menard (30/1)

Gatorade Duel Top 5 Finish Prediction - Race 2
1) #31 Jeff Burton (10/1)
2) #56 Martin Truex Jr. (20/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (30/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (3/1)
5) #1 Jamie McMurray (7/1)

Monday, February 14, 2011

Gatorade Duels Odds To Win From The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. lead the way in the Duels
GATORADE DUEL 1
DAYTONA INT'L SPEEDWAY
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2011

DALE EARNHARDT JR 3
KEVIN HARVICK 3
TONY STEWART 5
KURT BUSCH 7
JIMMIE JOHNSON 8
JUAN MONTOYA 10
MATT KENSETH 15
RYAN NEWMAN 15
KASEY KAHNE 18
BRIAN VICKERS 18
MARK MARTIN 20
AJ ALLMENDINGER 30
PAUL MENARD 30
REGAN SMITH 40
BOBBY LABONTE 40
MARCOS AMBROSE 40
BILL ELLIOTT 50
FIELD 50

GATORADE DUEL 1 DRIVER MATCHUPS
DALE EARNHARDT JR -110
KEVIN HARVICK -110

TONY STEWART -110
KURT BUSCH -110

JIMMIE JOHNSON -110
JUAN MONTOYA -110

RYAN NEWMAN -110
BRIAN VICKERS -110

MATT KENSETH -120
MARK MARTIN EVEN

AJ ALLMENDINGER -110
PAUL MENARD -110


Kyle Busch the 3-to1 favorite in Duel No. 2 at the LV Hilton 
GATORADE DUEL 2
DAYTONA INT'L SPEEDWAY
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2011

KYLE BUSCH 3
JEFF GORDON 4
DENNY HAMLIN 6
JAMIE McMURRAY 7
JOEY LOGANO 8
CLINT BOWYER 8
JEFF BURTON 10
CARL EDWARDS 12
GREG BIFFLE 15
DAVID RAGAN 15
MARTIN TRUEX JR 20
DAVID REUTIMANN 20
BRAD KESELOWSKI 30
MICHAEL WALTRIP 40
CASEY MEARS 75
TREVOR BAYNE 75
STEVE WALLACE 100
FIELD 50


GATORADE DUEL 2 DRIVER MATCHUPS
KYLE BUSCH -135
JEFF GORDON +115

DENNY HAMLIN -110
JAMIE McMURRAY -110

JOEY LOGANO -120
CLINT BOWYER EVEN

JEFF BURTON -110
CARL EDWARDS -110

GREG BIFFLE -110
DAVID RAGAN -110

MARTIN TRUEX JR -110
DAVID REUTIMANN -110