Tuesday, April 30, 2013

2013 Aaron's 499 LVH Odds: Kenseth and Busch 10/1 Co-Favorites to Win at Talladega

Kyle Busch is 10/1 co-favorite to win at Talladega Sunday 
LAS VEGAS -- The NASCAR Sprint Cup series roars into Talladega Superspeedway’s beastly 2.66-mile high-banked configuration this week for the Aaron’s 499, the 10th race of the season. Everything we’ve seen during the past eight races can be thrown out the window, before we settle on a few drivers to throw some money at. However, we can reference what happened in the season-opening Daytona 500, won by Jimmie Johnson.

Although Talladega and Daytona race much differently, the aerodynamics of the new Gen-6 car raced at Daytona will be similar to what will transpire on Sunday, which means a lot of single-file lines and not much passing.

At Daytona, drivers didn’t look very comfortable outside the freight train of hooked-up cars, and the few who did try to pull out and pass learned quickly it was tougher than ever. Some of them looked as though they were racing on ice.

The perfect example of this dynamic: Johnson led the final nine laps.

There was little movement during the race, and there was no fantastic finish with a sling shot move on the last turn. The stats show there were 28 lead changes among 14 drivers, but when looking back, it sure didn’t seem that racy.

What makes betting Talladega appealing is the fair odds offered on all the drivers. There are no drivers at less than double-digit odds, at least that’s the case at the LVH SuperBook, which has the Joe Gibbs duo of Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth posted as 10-to-1 co-favorites.

At non-restrictor plate tracks, there are legitimately only 15-20 drivers that can win a race. At Talladega or Daytona, that number jumps to about 35 drivers. Almost every team is close in performance, and the draft is the great equalizer.

We saw Danica Patrick, for example, race up front all day in the Daytona 500. She led two different times for five total laps. Normally with odds way above 100-to-1 – including 1,000-to-1 last week at Richmond – Patrick is 35-to-1 at Talladega this week. Expect a great qualifying effort from her again. Of all the races she'll enter this season, her best chance at capturing a win are at Talladega or Daytona.

The JGR cars looked outstanding during pre-season Daytona testing and looked strong again during Speedweeks. Kenseth won the fall race last season at Talladega while driving for Roush-Fenway Racing. At Daytona, he led four times for a race-high 86 laps before his engine expired with 51 laps to go. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (35-1) will be piloting the No. 17 Ford this week.

Read More Here..........LVH Super Book Odds to win

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