Thursday, April 16, 2015

2015 Food City 500 odds: Lots of different winners at Bristol lately

Brad Keselowski always considered one of drivers to beat at Bristol
LAS VEGAS-- The past six races held on Bristol's high banked and half-mile layout have been won by six different drivers, which is a diverse trend rarely seen out of Bristol over the years. If Kevin Harvick, who is the favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, wins Sunday's Food City, he would be come the seventh straight and it would be his first victory there since 2005.

Harvick is the 5-to-1 favorite just because of his consistency finishing first or second. The one race he didn't was at Martinsville, a track that he hasn't had great success at in the past. Although Martinsville is a half-mile track like Bristol, the two tracks couldn't be further apart in how they drive. Martinsville is flat with the inside line being fought over, while Bristol is much faster with two different grooves that makes the drivers less aggressive when battling for position.

From a ratings perspective, there isn't much to go off that will help in getting any king of edge. We can't go back and look at Martinsville and say Denny Hamlin should run well this week. Bristol is in it's own category and results from the weekend will be of help when Dover comes around in late May.

Harvick figures to be less dominant that he would be on a down-force track, but his consistent speeds and leading 766 laps already this season suggest he'll be near the front again this week.

Let's take a look at all the Westgate odds and see who offers value:


KEVIN HARVICK 5/1: On the old Bristol layout, prior to 2007, Kevin Harvick was a threat to win every time out, but since the multiple alterations, he's been rather ordinary. He hasn't had a top-five finish there since 2008, a span of 12 races.

JOEY LOGANO 6/1: He's going to be just as good as his teammate Keselowski. Last fall he finished just ahead of Keselowski for his first Bristol win.

BRAD KESELOWSKI 6/1: He won back-to-back Bristol events in 2011-12 and was runner-up last fall. This is his perfect type of track. Expect a great practice session that will elevate him to being the driver to beat by the time the green flag drops.

JIMMIE JOHNSON 7/1: He's conquered Bristol only once (2010) in 26 career starts, but has four top-five finishes in his past eight starts. They should be very good on Sunday.

KURT BUSCH 7/1: He's already been considered one of the Bristol greats, being one of the drivers that have won five times, but none of those wins came on the modern layout. It's been since 2006 that he last won there, but he might just grab No. 6 this week. Expect him to qualify well and lead a lot of laps early.

MATT KENSETH 8/1: He's mastered every type of layout at Bristol and he's done it with two different teams. He's a three-time winner with a 12.2 average. He last won in 2013 and finished third last fall.

JEFF GORDON 12/1: He's part of the five-timer club too, but his winless drought goes back to 2002. He's the perfect example of driver's skills at Martinsville meaning little at Bristol. He's only had two top-five finishes there in his past 11 starts.

DALE EARNHARDT JR 12/1: His only win in 30 career starts came in 2004 on the old layout. In 20 starts since his win, he has averaged an 11.9 finish with 10 top-10 finishes.

DENNY HAMLIN 12/1: He grabbed his first and only win in 2012, but he has more lows than highs over his past 10 starts with finishes of 19th, 34th, 33rd, 20th, 23rd, 28th and 40th. What makes him an attractive betting option this week in match-ups is the upward progression of Joe Gibbs Racing across the board.

CARL EDWARDS 12/1: He grabbed his first top-10 of 2015 last week at Texas, and ran most of the Martinsville race in the top-10 before settling for 17th. After a rocky start, the mood is positive with the first year team. Bristol is a good place for three-time winner Edwards, although 12-to-1 odds certainly aren't tempting enough to believe.

KASEY KAHNE 20/1: He's one of the drivers who have really excelled under the newest layout altered in 2012. He won in the spring of 2013 and then finished second in the fall. He was eighth in this race last year.

Read More Here.....complete listing of driver odds

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