Saturday, September 22, 2012

Final 2012 New Hampshire Sylvania 300 Driver Ratings Following All Practices

Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Sylvania 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Sunday, September 23, 2012 -  11:16 a.m. (PDT)

Rating    Driver     Odds        Practice 1   Qualified    Practice 2   Practice 3

 1. Denny Hamlin 5/1                  1st              32nd             1st              1st  
2007 winner; track best 8.5 average finish; best average lap speed in final practice.
 2. Clint Bowyer 12/1                   9th             12th              7th              7th 
Two-time winner, using winning Richmond chassis from two weeks ago.
 3. Jeff Gordon 10/1                    2nd              1st               9th             15th  
Three-time winner, the last in 1998; best 10-consecutive lap average in Practice2.
 4. Kyle Busch 10/1                    18th              2nd              5th              4th 
2006 winner; great practices and good candidate to win based on April Richmond win.
 5. Tony Stewart 7/1                    4th               3rd             10th             8th 
Three-time winner, including last fall; using new chassis that tested at Milwaukee.
 6. Kevin Harvick 15/1                 5th              16th             8th               9th 
2006 winner; one of two drivers to average 130 mph in final practice; new chassis.
 7. Jimmie Johnson 5/1               8th              20th             3rd             10th 
Three-time winner, the last in 2010; using seventh-place chassis from July race.
 8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1         25th             14th            17th            11th 
Best finish of third in 2004; using same chassis that finished fourth in July race.
 9. Kasey Kahne 8/1                    6th               6th             13th            19th 
2012 winner; not a standout in practices, but is using winning chassis from July.
10. Brad Keselowski 7/1             20th             15th            14th            17th 
Has finished runner-up and fifth in past two starts on track; new car this week.

Note: New Hampshire’s 1.058-mile flat banked track runs similar to Richmond and Phoenix. Drivers that do well on one usually fare well on the others.

Odds courtesy of the LVH Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights on the race, go to The Linemakers on or follow on Twitter: MicahRoberts7. 

Betting Notes
And the Denny Hamlin show continues to roll through town after town. He’s been so good in practices, it’s hard to believe that he hasn’t won more races. The only problem Hamlin will have to deal with Sunday is traffic as a result of his qualifying gaffe, which starts him 32nd. Barring any run-ins with the other 31 drivers he’ll be trying to pass, he should find himself within the top-5 by half-time.

It’s no fun betting on the favorite, so taking a shot with Clint Bowyer and Jeff Gordon seems like a pretty game plan. I also think Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Brian Vickers present some value as well, not only in odds to win wagers, but also matchups.

Another driver that may be worth taking a shot with in matchups is Jeff Burton. The RCR cars have all been much better over the past month and at one point, no one was better at New Hampshire than Burton.

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