Tuesday, April 30, 2013

2013 Aaron's 499 LVH Odds: Kenseth and Busch 10/1 Co-Favorites to Win at Talladega

Kyle Busch is 10/1 co-favorite to win at Talladega Sunday 
LAS VEGAS -- The NASCAR Sprint Cup series roars into Talladega Superspeedway’s beastly 2.66-mile high-banked configuration this week for the Aaron’s 499, the 10th race of the season. Everything we’ve seen during the past eight races can be thrown out the window, before we settle on a few drivers to throw some money at. However, we can reference what happened in the season-opening Daytona 500, won by Jimmie Johnson.

Although Talladega and Daytona race much differently, the aerodynamics of the new Gen-6 car raced at Daytona will be similar to what will transpire on Sunday, which means a lot of single-file lines and not much passing.

At Daytona, drivers didn’t look very comfortable outside the freight train of hooked-up cars, and the few who did try to pull out and pass learned quickly it was tougher than ever. Some of them looked as though they were racing on ice.

The perfect example of this dynamic: Johnson led the final nine laps.

There was little movement during the race, and there was no fantastic finish with a sling shot move on the last turn. The stats show there were 28 lead changes among 14 drivers, but when looking back, it sure didn’t seem that racy.

What makes betting Talladega appealing is the fair odds offered on all the drivers. There are no drivers at less than double-digit odds, at least that’s the case at the LVH SuperBook, which has the Joe Gibbs duo of Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth posted as 10-to-1 co-favorites.

At non-restrictor plate tracks, there are legitimately only 15-20 drivers that can win a race. At Talladega or Daytona, that number jumps to about 35 drivers. Almost every team is close in performance, and the draft is the great equalizer.

We saw Danica Patrick, for example, race up front all day in the Daytona 500. She led two different times for five total laps. Normally with odds way above 100-to-1 – including 1,000-to-1 last week at Richmond – Patrick is 35-to-1 at Talladega this week. Expect a great qualifying effort from her again. Of all the races she'll enter this season, her best chance at capturing a win are at Talladega or Daytona.

The JGR cars looked outstanding during pre-season Daytona testing and looked strong again during Speedweeks. Kenseth won the fall race last season at Talladega while driving for Roush-Fenway Racing. At Daytona, he led four times for a race-high 86 laps before his engine expired with 51 laps to go. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (35-1) will be piloting the No. 17 Ford this week.

Read More Here..........LVH Super Book Odds to win

2013 Aaron's 499 Preview: Look at Daytona for Jump Start on Talladega

Jeff Gordon led the first 31 laps in Daytona 500; has six Talladega wins
The 10th race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season takes us to the biggest, baddest track on the planet -- Talladega Superspeedway. Between four wide racing on a 2.66-mile monster of a track and some of the most spectacular wrecks ever seen, Talladega races are annually the most anticipated events of the season by NASCAR fans.

At the Las Vegas sports books, you can expect to see odds reflected on the race to show more parity than any other type of track, except for maybe Daytona, the other restrictor-plate track. These type of races are crap shoots. Last week at Richmond, Kyle Busch was 9-to-2. This week, he's 12-to-1. There are no single-digit favorites, at least at respectable books, because no driver can be pegged as the true favorite.

You can search through all the stats and data you want on a driver for this race to try and find the winner, but throwing darts and picking a number out of a hat is a system that is just as good. It really is a tough process.

Not only do you have the volatile nature of the track that can wipe out your driver unexpectedly, but you've also got about 35 other drivers that are capable of winning the race. On a normal race weekend, like say at Richmond last week, there are maybe only 15 drivers that have a chance at winning. This makes it harder than any other race to pick the winner, which is why the books offer such fair odds on all the drivers.

It might seem like a good spot to not wager at all. Because there are so many variables against you as bettor, this could be spot to just watch the race for fun. But usually, the fun of watching the race is having action on a couple drivers. And betting at Talladega can actually be more thrilling than other tracks, even in losses, because of never being out of the race unless your car is being being hauled out on a tow truck.

Your driver can be sitting 30th, but with five laps to go, he comes charging to front. Four laps to go and he's in 20th. Three laps to go, and he's in 12th. Two laps to go and now he's in among the leaders, and when the white flag drops signaling one lap to go, you're sitting on the edge of your seat hoping that your driver can make that winning move.

Read More Here.....Top-5 Finish Predictions

Kevin Harvick Looking to Carry Momentum into Talladega

Harvick won Sprint Unlimited and Bud Duel at Daytona in March
Kevin Harvick
No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet SS Event
Preview Fact Sheet

This Week’s Budweiser Chevrolet at Talladega Superspeedway … Kevin Harvick will pilot chassis No. 334 from the Richard Childress Racing NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stable in the Aaron’s 499. This is the same Chevrolet that teammate Austin Dillon drove to a 31st-place finish during the Daytona 500 thisseason.

Superspeedway Stats … Since 2001, Harvick has made 24 appearances at the Alabama-based facility. In those 24 starts, the RCR veteran driver has collected one win (April 2006), one pole award (May 2005) six top-five and 10 top-10 finishes. Harvick has led 155 laps at the 2.66-mile track while completing 97.8 percent (4,446 of 4,548) of the laps contested.

New BUD 360° App … Budweiser is giving consumers a whole new look at what it’s like to hit speeds of 190 mph in the No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet SS with the interactive BUD 360° app. The King of Beers’ innovative new app utilizes surround video technology to provide users with a 360-degree look inside Harvick’s NASCARSprint Cup Series ride as the driver completes several laps at Charlotte Motor Speedway. While Harvick controls the wheel, the consumer controls the view, allowing them to experience the sensation of speed in never-before-seen angles. The app is available for free in the Apple App Store for both iPhone and iPad users. The Budweiser Racing 360° video also is accessible on desktop computers at www.budweiser.com.

Sprint Unlimited Q&A … Harvick will participate in a fan question-and-answer session Sunday, May 5 from 9:20-9:35 a.m. CT at the Sprint Unlimited Experience at Talladega Superspeedway.

2012 Race Rewind … Harvick and the No. 29 team came home with a 25th-place finish in the 2012 Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway after being involved in a late-race, multi-car incident.


What are your thoughts heading into the race at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend?
“I like restrictor-plate racing, but our luck hasn’t been that great lately on that style track. Last season, we thought we were going to have a chance to win coming to the checkers during the second races of the seasonat Daytona (International Speedway) and Talladega (Superspeedway), but we wound up coming in on a wrecker. We just haven’t gotten the finishes we thought we would at those tracks, even though we’ve had goodruns. We’re coming off a win at Richmond (International Raceway), so I’m hoping we can carry that momentum into the race this weekend.”

- Richard Childress Racing

2013 Aaron's 499 at Talladega Superspeedway Storylines

Crap Shoot this week; even Danica Patrick has a shot to win
Gentlemen – and lady – roll your dice.

Yes, it’s Talladega Time. No doubt about it, any time the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series engines fire at the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway there can be 43 favorites. Anybody’s race? You bet.

The mammoth Alabama facility has produced 10 first-time winners – among them reigning NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Brad Keselowski. Some have never won again but are able to regale their grandchildren with tales of carrying the checkered flag to ‘Dega’s Victory Lane.

Perhaps either David Ragan or David Gilliland of Front Row Motorsports will be able to provide their up-and-coming organization its first NASCAR Sprint Cup victory. Both drivers have top-five finishes on restrictor-plate tracks; Gilliland a Daytona 500 pole in 2007 and Ragan top 10s in both Talladega races a year ago.

Several top-flight teams carry early-season momentum into this week’s race. Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson continues as the standings leader and Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are firmly ensconced in the top five. Junior hopes to capture a sixth Talladega victory and first since 2004.

Both Richard Childress Racing and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates enjoyed last weekend’s night race at Richmond. RCR’s Kevin Harvick, a Talladega winner in 2010, posted the organization’s first points victory of the year. A late caution snatched the win from Juan Pablo Montoya’s pocket but the Colombian still snapped a 74-race top-five drought. EGR teammate Jamie McMurray, a Daytona 500 and Talladega winner, is contending for the organization’s first Chase berth since 2009.

Daytona 500 Coors Light Pole winner Danica Patrick hopes to carry her Daytona momentum – an eighth-place finish – to another restrictor-plate track. Her only ‘Dega experience came during last season’s NASCAR Nationwide Series race in which she finished 13th.

JR Motorsports, driver Regan Smith and crew chief Greg Ives – a former Hendrick Motorsports engineer – have closed to within a point of NASCAR Nationwide Series leader Sam Hornish Jr. The team ended 2012 with a victory at Homestead-Miami Speedway and continues to put the No. 5 Chevrolet among the leaders during this year’s opening races.

Experience pays dividends at Talladega Superspeedway where every NASCAR Nationwide Series winner since 2006 has been a full-time NASCAR Sprint Cup competitor. Joey Logano won the Aaron’s 312 last season.

Four NASCAR Camping World Truck Series regulars take advantage of the break in the schedule to make NASCAR Nationwide Series appearances this week.


Talladega Identifies Present, Future NASCAR Sprint Cup Stars
Talladega Superspeedway offers validation for some; opportunity for others. Five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champions – Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon – have won at the 2.66-mile track since 2007. The track also has provided first NASCAR Sprint Cup wins for 10 drivers including Keselowski (2009) and Brian Vickers (2006).

Junior Hopes Daytona 500 Success Equals Sixth Talladega Victory
Only two drivers have won more Talladega races than Dale Earnhardt Jr., who fashioned a four-in-a-row streak between 2001 and 2003 and added a fifth victory in 2004. Junior’s record has been so-so since joining Hendrick Motorsports five years ago – a second place in the 2009 Aaron’s 499 among two top-five and four top-10 finishes. Earnhardt looks to continue his 2013 restrictor-plate momentum, having finished second in the Daytona 500 behind HMS teammate Jimmie Johnson.

Odds Favor Richard Childress Racing Drivers To Contend In Aaron’s 499
Talladega Superspeedway couldn’t come at a better time for Richard Childress Racing. Teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton finished first and fifth at Richmond and Paul Menard ranks 10th in NASCAR Sprint Cup points. RCR drivers have won an even dozen times at Talladega; most by any owner. Harvick won the 2010 Aaron’s 499 with then-teammate Clint Bowyer taking his RCR Chevrolet to Victory Lane twice in the past five Talladega races.

Front Row Motorsports Could Be Next First-Time Winner
Front Row Motorsports continues to improve its standing in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and Sunday’s Aaron’s 499 offers another opportunity for Bob Jenkins’ organization to capture its first victory. The team’s two top-five finishes – David Gilliland, third in the Daytona 500 in 2011; and David Ragan, fourth in last fall’s event at Talladega Superspeedway – came on restrictor-plate tracks. Ragan finished seventh in Talladega’s 2012 spring race, while Gilliland posted a ninth-place finish in the previous year’s event.

Roush Fenway Fords Strong At ‘Dega A Year Ago
Matt Kenseth has moved on but his 2.0 average finish in last year’s four restrictor-plate races suggests that Roush Fenway Racing will bring a stable of fast Fords to this week’s race at Talladega Superspeedway. RFR has won four times at Talladega – with Kenseth last fall, Jamie McMurray in 2009 and Mark Martin in 1995 and 1997. Gregg Biffle finished fifth and sixth in last year’s Talladega races, as well as sixth in this year’s Daytona 500. Carl Edwards enters this week’s race ranked second in the points standings, 43 points behind leader Jimmie Johnson. Edwards’ best Talladega finish is fifth.

McMurray, Montoya, EGR On The Rebound
The fog figuratively has lifted for Jamie McMurray, Juan Pablo Montoya and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates. McMurray counts three top-10 finishes and a top-12 points ranking; Montoya broke a 74-race top-five finish drought at Richmond and EGR appears ready to contend for a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™. McMurray is a former Talladega and Daytona 500 winner and Montoya has twice won the Coors Light Pole at the Alabama superspeedway.

Patrick Bids To Replicate Daytona Success At Talladega
Fair to say this continues to be a learning season for Sunoco Rookie of the Year contender Danica Patrick. Fair to say that her Daytona 500 performance well could be a precursor to a break-through race on Sunday at another restrictor-plate layout. Patrick won the Coors Light Pole for the Daytona 500, kept her No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet at the front of the field until the end and finished a solid eighth.

- NASCAR Media Services

Talladega Superspeedway: 2013 Aaron's 499 Track Facts

At Talladega Superspeedway:
·         Construction began on what was then known as the Alabama International Motor Speedway on May 23, 1968.
·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on Sept. 14, 1969 – won by Richard Brickhouse.
·         The name changed to Talladega Superspeedway in 1989.
·         Fourth repaving completed on Sept. 19, 2006.
·         There have been 87 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Talladega Superspeedway, one NSCS event in 1969 and two races per year since 1970.
·         Talladega Superspeedway is tied with Michigan International Speedway for holding the ninth most NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points paying races (87).  
·         429 drivers have competed in at least one NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Talladega; 294 in more than one.
·         Dave Marcis leads the series in starts at Talladega with 61. Terry Labonte leads all active drivers with 57 starts; followed by Michael Waltrip with 53.
·         Bobby Isaac won the inaugural Coors Light pole at Talladega in 1969 with a speed of 199.466 mph.  Isaac won the first three poles at the 2.66-mile superspeedway.
·         36 drivers have Coors Light poles at Talladega, led by Bill Elliott with eight. Joe Nemechek leads all active drivers with four.
·         10 drivers have won consecutive Coors Light poles at Talladega. Bill Elliott holds the record for most consecutive poles at Talladega with six (1985-1987).
·         Youngest Talladega pole winner: Jimmie Johnson (4/21/2002 – 26 years, 7 months, 4 days).
·         Oldest Talladega pole winner: Mark Martin (10/23/2012 – 52 years, 9 months, 14 days).
·         47 different drivers have won at Talladega Superspeedway, led by Dale Earnhardt with 10. Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with six.
·         Richard Childress Racing has the most wins at Talladega in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series with 12; followed by Hendrick Motorsports with 11.
·         Nine different manufacturers have won in the NSCS at Talladega; led by Chevrolet with 38 victories; followed byFord with 19.
·         13 of the 87 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Talladega have been won from the Coors Light pole. Only two active drivers have been able to accomplish the feat: Bobby Labonte (1998) and Jeff Gordon (2007).  
·         The deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Talladega was 36th, by Jeff Gordon in the spring of 2000.
·         Youngest Talladega winner: Bobby Hillin Jr. (7/27/1986 – 22 years, 1 month, 22 days).
·         Oldest Talladega winner: Harry Gant (5/6/1991 – 51 years, 3 months, 26 days).
·         Buddy Baker and Tony Stewart are tied for theseries most runner-up finishes at Talladega with six each.
·         NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt leads the series in top-five finishes at Talladega with 23. Jeff Gordonleads all active drivers with 15.
·         Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average starting position at Talladega with a 10.182.
·         Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average finishing position at Talladega with a 12.250.
·         There have been six NSCS races resulting with a green-white-checkered finish at Talladega Superspeedway: spring of 2005 (188/194), fall of 2005 (188/190), spring of 2007 (188/192), fall of 2008 (188/190) spring of 2010 (188/200) and fall of 2012 (188/189).
·         Only two of the 87 races at Talladega Superspeedway have been shortened due to weather conditions: spring of 1987 and fall of 1996.
·         Qualifying has been cancelled due to weather conditions in the NASCAR Sprint Cup at Talladega Superspeedway three times; most recently spring of 2010.
·         Jamie McMurray (10/6/2002) made his series debut at Talladega Superspeedway.
·         Juan Pablo Montoya (4/26/2009), David Gilliland (10/8/2006) and Travis Kvapil (10/5/2008) posted their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Coors Light poles at Talladega.
·         2012 series champion Brad Keselowski (4/26/2009), Brian Vickers (10/8/2006) and Ken Schrader (7/31/1988) posted their first NASCAR Sprint Cup wins at Talladega.    
·         Nine drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series have posted consecutive wins at Talladega Dale Earnhardt Jr.leads the series in consecutive wins at Talladega after posting four consecutive wins from the fall of 2001 – 2003.
·         15 of the 16 active NASCAR Sprint Cup winners at Talladega Superspeedway participated in at least one or more races before visiting Victory Lane. Brad Keselowski is the only active series driver to winat Talladega in his first appearance.
·         Matt Kenseth competed at Talladega Superspeedway 25 times before winning last fall; the longest span of any the 16 active NASCAR Sprint Cup winners.
·         Matt Kenseth (25), Terry Labonte (21), Tony Stewart (19), Kevin Harvick (18) and Mark Martin (18) all made 10 or more attempts before their first win at Talladega.
·         Jeff Burton leads the series among active drivers with the most NASCAR Sprint Cup starts at Talladega without visiting Victory Lane at 38.
·         Since the advent of electronic scoring the closest margin of victory in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega Superspeedway was the race on April 17, 2011 won by Jimmie Johnson with a MOV of 0.002 second – the MOV is tied with the 2003 Darlington race as the closest finishes in the NSCS using electronic scoring.
·         Two female drivers have competed at Talladega in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series–
o    Janet Guthrie made three Talladega starts:
§ (5/1/1977) - starting 13th and finishing 32nd
§ (8/7/1977) - starting ninth and finishing 34th
§ (8/6/1978) – starting 12th and finishing 29th
o    Patty Moise made one Talladega start:
§ (7/30/1989) - starting 13th and finishing 32nd
·         Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in laps led at Talladega with 839 laps led in 40 starts.
Talladega Superspeedway Data
Season Race #: 10 of 36 (05-05-13)
Track Size: 2.66-miles
Banking/Turns 1 & 2: 33 degrees
Banking/Turns 3 & 4: 33 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 16.5 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 4,300 feet
Backstretch Length: 4,000 feet
Race Length: 188 laps / 500 miles
Top 12 Driver Rating at Talladega
Jeff Burton................................. 91.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr....................... 89.6
Matt Kenseth............................ 88.9
Brian Vickers............................ 87.3
Kurt Busch............................... 86.1
Brad Keselowski....................... 85.6
David Ragan............................. 85.5
Denny Hamlin........................... 84.9
Tony Stewart............................ 83.5
Jeff Gordon............................... 83.1
Jamie McMurray....................... 81.7
Kyle Busch.............................. 81.1
Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2012 races (16 total) among active drivers at Talladega Superspeedway
Qualifying/Race Data
2012 pole winner: Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 191.623 mph, 49.973 secs. 5-4-12
2012 race winner: Brad Keselowski, Dodge, 160.192 mph, (03:13:17), 5-6-12
Track qualifying record: Bill Elliott, Ford, 212.809 mph, 44.998 secs. 4-30-87
Track race record: Mark Martin, Ford, 188.354 mph, (2:39:18), 5-10-97
NASCAR in Alabama
·         There have been 106 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Alabama.
Track Name
Talladega Superspeedway
Birmingham International Raceway
Chisholm Speedway
Dixie Speedway
Huntsville Speedway
Lakeview Speedway
Montgomery Motor Speedway
·         68 drivers in NASCAR national series history have their home state recorded as Alabama.
·         Eight drivers from Alabama have won at least one race in NASCAR’s three national series; five have won in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.
Bobby Allison
Davey Allison
Neil Bonnett
Donnie Allison
Red Byron
Steve Grissom
Rick Crawford
Cale Gale